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Expropriation risks for foreigners in Russia will rise

Location:

RUSSIA

Operating restrictions on Western firms since 2022 have expanded into expropriation risks over the last year. This month Putin signed a decree to authorise the seizure of US…

Iran is approaching the limits of its oil expansion

Location:

IRAN

Iran’s increasingly skilled sanctions evasion (aided by less intense US enforcement) has made it the second-largest contributor to higher global oil output over the past year…

Recovery of Russian consumption is likely to moderate

Location:

RUSSIA

Strong household demand, now restored to pre-war levels, mitigated the impact on GDP of falling exports last year. The consumer market is profoundly changed, with new brands from…

Russia’s ties with Iran will grow stronger

Location:

RUSSIA

War, sanctions and a mutual desire to overturn US-led regional security orders have pushed Moscow and Tehran closer together. Moscow desires to turn what has historically been a…

Parallel imports continue to support Russia’s economy

Location:

RUSSIA

Parallel imports have played a crucial role in securing the supply of goods for the Russian economy. The creation and management of parallel import channels is now an important…

Ukraine war fuelling economic growth in Central Asia

Location:

CENTRAL ASIA

Economic growth in Central Asia has been strong since the COVID-19 pandemic. Shifts in trade and financial flows due to the war in Ukraine have boosted output. Rising investment…

China-Germany ties will be impacted by trade clashes

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CHINA/GERMANY

Germany’s trade and supply-chain dependence on China, and its sizeable corporate investments in the country, are at odds with pressure from both Brussels and Washington to take a…

Georgia’s relations with Europe are at a crossroads

Location:

GEORGIA

Tensions between opposing political forces rose last month when the government triggered impeachment proceedings against the president. Although this failed, strains between the…

US pressures could undermine Cartes power in Paraguay

Location:

PARAGUAY

The spat masks growing US concern over Cartes’s overwhelming domestic political power and international activities. Cartes’s dominant Colorado Party faction has been quick to…

Vostok Oil project will define Russia’s oil future

Location:

RUSSIA

Vostok is expected to produce 2 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2030, with all exports going via the strategically important Northern Sea Route (NSR). The Kremlin hopes it will…