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Poland's economic outlook will be uncertain under PiS

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POLAND

Amid an ongoing constitutional crisis, the Law and Justice (PiS) government, which was sworn into office on November 16, has been busy revising fiscal targets and agreeing draft…

Warsaw's ambitious growth plan's funding is weak link

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POLAND

The government's plan for infrastructure-led growth.

High corporate debt risks Brazil's post-COVID recovery

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BRAZIL

Small companies have been the most affected. Government programmes have supplied credit but struggled to channel funds to the neediest companies, especially at the beginning of…

Poland's new NBP governor may bring gradual change

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POLAND

Poland faces an uncertain second quarter, the economy having slowed to its lowest point since late 2012. Questions are being raised over the outlook for interest rates under new…

The great GDP contraction may herald huge crowding out

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INTERNATIONAL

Economic stimulus schemes and gaps.

Large US household balance sheets pose macro risks

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UNITED STATES

An examination of the factors behind the expansion indicates that outsized balance sheets will persist and will pose a number of macroeconomic risks.

Prospects for the global economy in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

Europe and the United States may slip back into recession in the northern hemisphere winter. If vaccination succeeds, the advanced economies will recover robustly from mid-2021…

Risks will outweigh recovery chances in Eastern Europe

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EASTERN EUROPE

The economic environment has been dictated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its market and policy implications. Next year, the prospects for the V4 economies are moderately upbeat…

Colombia tax reform and budget will be watered down

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COLOMBIA

Various interest groups, including the private sector, political actors and civil society organisations, are likely to put pressure on the government to reduce its revenue targets…

Fiscal framework will aim for sustainability

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BRAZIL

The framework’s goal is to give the government flexibility to implement its policy commitments, including the Bolsa Familia welfare programme and increased minimum wages and…