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Expert briefing

Publication date: 29 April 2024

Immigration is key to US job market and economic plans

Location:: UNITED STATES

Behind this workforce expansion is higher immigration that has allowed considerably more new jobs without raising real wages. Immigration explains some of the strength in…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286716

ISSN: 2633-304X

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employment

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labour

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Expert briefing

Publication date: 15 February 2024

ECB and Fed to delay rate cuts to sustain disinflation

Location:: EU/US

Disinflation is underway on both sides of the North Atlantic, but it is not yet deeply entrenched, giving both central banks a reason to delay cuts. The ECB must contend with…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285238

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing

Publication date: 6 November 2023

Prospects for the global economy in 2024

Location:: PROSPECTS 2024

Weak trade and fiscal policy constraints suggest global GDP growth will slow somewhat in 2024, with China and the United States losing momentum. Hopes for growth-boosting rate…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB283146

ISSN: 2633-304X

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PROSPECTS 2024

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economy

consumer

fiscal

food

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foreign trade

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Expert briefing

Publication date: 21 December 2023

Central bank policies diverge amid political strains

Location:: INTERNATIONAL

This creates a clear contextual divide, ahead of consequential European Parliament, US and UK elections in 2024. The inability of the central banks to forecast inflation or growth…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB284164

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing

Publication date: 18 September 2023

China slowdown looms over global GDP growth

Location:: INTERNATIONAL

The Chinese slowdown will also affect many developing countries that rely on raw materials exports to China and have already been impacted by sharp rises in interest rates, as…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB282003

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing

Publication date: 21 September 2023

Unknowns cloud major central banks’ forward guidance

Location:: INT

The Fed insists that subsequent moves will depend on economic developments, but its forecast implies that, although not imminent, another 25-basis-point (bp) increase will happen…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB282113

ISSN: 2633-304X

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United States

China

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economy

bonds

capital flows

equities

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Expert briefing

Publication date: 21 July 2023

Renewed rate rises raise risk of more financial shocks

Location:: INTERNATIONAL

While headline inflation in the United States and the euro-area has fallen steadily, core inflation remains stubborn. The ‘last mile’ of the disinflation process will be the most…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB280687

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing

Publication date: 30 November 2022

Prospects for the global economy in 2023

Location:: PROSPECTS 2023

Prospects for the global economy in 2023.

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB274348

ISSN: 2633-304X

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International

PROSPECTS 2023

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economy

aid

consumer

fiscal

foreign investment

foreign trade

growth

investment

monetary

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welfare

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Expert briefing

Publication date: 15 February 2023

The ECB will face a conundrum over its monetary policy

Location:: EU

The ECB lags behind other major central banks in raising rates; and inflationary pressures are stronger in the euro-area than the United States. This suggests that hopes that…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB276029

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing

Publication date: 26 May 2023

The central banks face an increasingly complex dilemma

Location:: INTERNATIONAL

With inflation lasting longer than expected, worries about the impact on banking may limit the scope for more rate hikes. Equally, a pause could undermine central banks'…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB279348

ISSN: 2633-304X

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banking

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