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Bond and stock trends diverge on 2024 outlook

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INTERNATIONAL

This is driving a rally in government bonds and equities. However, labour markets remain tight, fuelling wage growth and keeping services inflation above central banks’ 2…

Oil price moves have limited impact on wider inflation

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INTERNATIONAL

In reality, the oil price has less influence on inflationary trends and expectations today than in earlier decades, partly because central banks have greater credibility and…

Ukraine-Russia war will dent Japan's economy

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JAPAN

There are direct impacts resulting from Japan’s economic exposure to Russia, which is affected by sanctions against Moscow and possible counter-sanctions. Indirect impacts arise…

Corporate risk management will include social media

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INT

Like public companies that became 'meme stocks' over the past two years, banks are learning that social media is now a matter of risk management more than marketing. Few but the…

Fast oil privatisation would help Greece exit bailout

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GREECE

The preferred investor is to be selected in record time, by end-June. The sale is on the list of ‘prior actions’ under Greece’s third economic adjustment programme. A successful…

Costly food will spotlight neglect of Turkish farming

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TURKEY

This exceeds overall consumer price inflation of 15.9%. Besides causing public alarm, high food prices could indicate that Turkey is barely managing to feed its growing…

Turkey’s stock market is set to be highly volatile

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TURKEY

Local investors have used Turkey’s stock market as a hedge against the country’s runaway inflation and government attempts to 'lira-ise' the economy. The market's strong…

Japan will be a policy pioneer for advanced nations

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INTERNATIONAL

It took policymakers decades to tackle the consequences of the market crash, partly due to conservative caution; this experience has encouraged other states to be more…

Prospects for fossil fuels in 2018

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PROSPECTS 2018

US shale is now the swing provider in global oil markets and rising prices have encouraged production increases. With prices for future delivery lower than spot rates, buyers are…

Stock market moves will not shake Beijing's resolve

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CHINA

Beijing's supportive policies are likely to stabilise the market, and structural tailwinds will probably reflate it eventually. Stock market volatility is likely to have limited…