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Case study
Publication date: 23 April 2024

Daniel Murphy

Alexandre Tombini, the governor of the Central Bank of Brazil, faced a difficult situation in July 2015. Inflation was in the double digits, well above the target rate of 4.5%…

Abstract

Alexandre Tombini, the governor of the Central Bank of Brazil, faced a difficult situation in July 2015. Inflation was in the double digits, well above the target rate of 4.5%, and unemployment had increased from around 4.5% a year prior to nearly 8%. Any actions Tombini took to control inflation would most likely exacerbate unemployment, at least in the short run. To further complicate matters, Tombini's office was not independent of the executive branch of Brazil's government, and Tombini faced the possibility that any of his actions that were not aligned with the priorities of the current administration could cost him his job.

This case follows classes on fiscal and monetary policy in normal times and is the first class in a sequence on macroeconomic challenges–in this case, stagflation–high inflation and high unemployment. Students are pushed to consider why macroeconomic stabilization involves such acute and unpleasant tradeoffs during episodes of high inflation and unemployment. Students use the IS/LM AD/AS model as a reference.

Details

Darden Business Publishing Cases, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2474-7890
Published by: University of Virginia Darden School Foundation

Keywords

Executive summary
Publication date: 28 March 2024

ARGENTINA: Stagflation will drive increasing poverty

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES286155

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Executive summary
Publication date: 16 February 2024

EU: Stagflation is a risk in the euro-area this year

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES285271

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Executive summary
Publication date: 20 December 2023

UNITED KINGDOM: Economy faces prolonged stagflation

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES284157

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Executive summary
Publication date: 15 November 2023

EU: Many major European economies face stagflation

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES283390

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Executive summary
Publication date: 13 December 2023

UNITED KINGDOM: Economy faces persistent stagflation

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES284003

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Book part
Publication date: 19 January 2024

Alexandre Chirat, Basile Clerc and Richard P. F. Holt

In 1979, Galbraith wrote a manuscript titled “The Social Consequences of Inflation and Unemployment and Their Remedies.” The manuscript was found in the John Kenneth Galbraith…

Abstract

In 1979, Galbraith wrote a manuscript titled “The Social Consequences of Inflation and Unemployment and Their Remedies.” The manuscript was found in the John Kenneth Galbraith Personal Papers at the John F. Kennedy Library. The reasons for Galbraith to write the article might appear at first glance to be purely contextual. At the macroeconomic level, the United States was experiencing stagflation, a situation unseen since 1945, resulting in double-digit inflation rates and high unemployment. A policy debate was going on about the Phillips curve and whether there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Milton Friedman challenged the Keynesian analyses of the Phillips curve in the mid-1960s (Friedman, 1977). Galbraith’s 16-page draft manuscript provides us an incisive summary of Galbraith’s views about the causes of stagflation and what can be done about it. He provides us with an alternative to the neoclassical synthesis of Samuelson and Solow and the neoliberal thinking of Milton Friedman and F.A. Hayek.

Details

Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology: Including a Symposium on John Kenneth Galbraith: Economic Structures and Policies for the Twenty-first Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-931-4

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Petr Rozmahel and Marek Litzman

This chapter elaborates on the main factors of the adverse macroeconomic development in Czechia and Europe. Currently, i.e. from 2022, Czechia mainly suffers from double-digit…

Abstract

This chapter elaborates on the main factors of the adverse macroeconomic development in Czechia and Europe. Currently, i.e. from 2022, Czechia mainly suffers from double-digit galloping inflation and GDP stagnation. The aim of this chapter is to identify and describe the influence of the main factors from the present and the more distant past on current inflation and approaching stagflation in Czechia. This chapter analyzes an unfavourable mix of demand and supply factors that leave the new banking board of the CNB facing a dilemma, that is, whether to pursue a disinflationary policy of increasing interest rates and thus push the Czech economy closer into recession or to rely on demand-driven economic growth, which will keep unemployment at a low level, but at the same time contribute to inflationary pressures. The new governor of the CNB completely changed the strategy of his predecessor and, despite strong criticism, did not raise interest rates even once. Based on the analysis of inflationary factors, this chapter tries to explain the motives for the Central Bank's new strategy in the fight against inflation, which is the systematic appreciation of the Czech koruna.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-841-6

Keywords

Expert briefing
Publication date: 4 December 2023

With Milei now predicting six months of stagflation and up to two years to reduce inflation from triple digits, dollarisation appears to have been shelved. Instead, he seems…

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2023

Fouad Jamaani and Abdullah M. Alawadhi

Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock…

Abstract

Purpose

Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock market growth. Thus, this paper aims to examine the impact of inflation on the probability of initial public offering (IPO) withdrawal decision.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs a large dataset that covers the period January 1995–December 2019 and comprises 33,536 successful or withdrawn IPOs from 22 nations with various legal and cultural systems. This study applies a probit model utilizing version 15 of Stata statistical software.

Findings

This study finds that inflation is substantially and positively correlated with the likelihood of IPO withdrawal. Results of this study show that the IPO withdrawal decision increases up to 90% when the inflation rate climbs by 10%. Multiple robustness tests provide consistent findings.

Practical implications

This study's implications are important for researchers, investment banks, underwriters, issuers, regulators and stock exchanges. When processing IPO proposals, investment banks, underwriters and issuers must consider inflation projections to avoid negative effects, as demonstrated by the findings. In addition, regulators and stock exchanges must be aware of the detrimental impact of inflation on competitiveness in attracting new listings.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to present convincing evidence of a major relationship between IPO withdrawal decision and inflation.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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