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1 – 10 of over 17000Panel data-based demand forecasting models have been widely adopted in various industrial settings over the past few decades. Despite being a highly versatile and intuitive…
Abstract
Purpose
Panel data-based demand forecasting models have been widely adopted in various industrial settings over the past few decades. Despite being a highly versatile and intuitive method, in the literature, there is a lack of comprehensive review examining the strengths, the weaknesses, and the industrial applications of panel data-based demand forecasting models. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap by reviewing and exploring the features of various main stream panel data-based demand forecasting models. A novel process, in the form of a flowchart, which helps practitioners to select the right panel data models for real world industrial applications, is developed. Future research directions are proposed and discussed.
Design/methodology/approach
It is a review paper. A systematically searched and carefully selected number of panel data-based forecasting models are examined analytically. Their features are also explored and revealed.
Findings
This paper is the first one which reviews the analytical panel data models specifically for demand forecasting applications. A novel model selection process is developed to assist decision makers to select the right panel data models for their specific demand forecasting tasks. The strengths, weaknesses, and industrial applications of different panel data-based demand forecasting models are found. Future research agenda is proposed.
Research limitations/implications
This review covers most commonly used and important panel data-based models for demand forecasting. However, some hybrid models, which combine the panel data-based models with other models, are not covered.
Practical implications
The reviewed panel data-based demand forecasting models are applicable in the real world. The proposed model selection flowchart is implementable in practice and it helps practitioners to select the right panel data-based models for the respective industrial applications.
Originality/value
This paper is the first one which reviews the analytical panel data models specifically for demand forecasting applications. It is original.
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Monjur Mourshed and Mohammed A. Quddus
Renewable energy (RE) is an important component to the complex portfolio of technologies that have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions and to enhance the security of energy…
Abstract
Purpose
Renewable energy (RE) is an important component to the complex portfolio of technologies that have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions and to enhance the security of energy supplies. Despite RE's potential to reduce CO2 emissions, the expenditure on renewable energy research, development, and demonstration (RERD&D) as a percentage of total government energy research, development, and demonstration (ERD&D) investment remains low in developed countries. The declining ERD&D expenditure prompted this research to explore the relationship between CO2 emissions per capita and RERD&D as opposed to ERD&D.
Design/methodology/approach
An econometric analysis of annual CO2 emissions per capita during the period 1990‐2004 for the 15 pre‐2004 European Union (EU15) countries was carried out. It was hypothesized that the impact of RERD&D expenditure on the reduction of CO2 emissions would be higher than that of ERD&D expenditure, primarily due to several RE technologies being close to carbon neutral. Country‐level gross domestic product per capita and an index of the ratio between industry consumption and industrial production were introduced in the analysis as proxies to control for activities that generate CO2 emissions. A number of panel data econometric models that are able to take into account both country‐ and time‐specific unobserved effects were explored.
Findings
It was found that random effect models were more appropriate to examine the study hypothesis. The results suggest that expenditure on RERD&D is statistically significant and negatively associated with CO2 emissions per capita in all models, whereas expenditure on ERD&D is statistically insignificant (ceteris paribus).
Originality/value
The findings of this paper provide useful insight into the effectiveness of RERD&D investment in reducing CO2 emissions and are of value in the development of policies for targeted research, development, and demonstration investment to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
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Joseph F. Hair Jr. and Luiz Paulo Fávero
This paper aims to discuss multilevel modeling for longitudinal data, clarifying the circumstances in which they can be used.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to discuss multilevel modeling for longitudinal data, clarifying the circumstances in which they can be used.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors estimate three-level models with repeated measures, offering conditions for their correct interpretation.
Findings
From the concepts and techniques presented, the authors can propose models, in which it is possible to identify the fixed and random effects on the dependent variable, understand the variance decomposition of multilevel random effects, test alternative covariance structures to account for heteroskedasticity and calculate and interpret the intraclass correlations of each analysis level.
Originality/value
Understanding how nested data structures and data with repeated measures work enables researchers and managers to define several types of constructs from which multilevel models can be used.
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Abhishek Kumar Sinha, Aswini Kumar Mishra, Manogna RL and Rohit Prabhudesai
The objective of the study is to analyse the impact of research and development investment on the firm performance of “small” scale firms vis-a-vis “medium”-scale firms.
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of the study is to analyse the impact of research and development investment on the firm performance of “small” scale firms vis-a-vis “medium”-scale firms.
Design/methodology/approach
The dataset comprised of a balanced panel of 486 research and development conducting Indian manufacturing small and medium enterprises, constructed for the period of 2006–2017. Fixed Effects, Random Effects Model and Hausmann test were used to analyse the determinants of firm performance in manufacturing small and medium enterprises in India.
Findings
It was found that from firms’ research and development (R&D) investments in terms of performance could be attained if simultaneously internationalisation and higher capital intensity could be achieved.
Practical implications
Managers could pay specific attention to the antecedents of firm performance and calibrate their R&D investment, internationalisation efforts and capital intensity simultaneously to achieve higher growth and productivity. For policymakers, the results provide an insight into how the firms in both categories could be differently incentivised, such that resources are better utilised.
Originality/value
The study analysed the determinants of firm performance in small and medium-sized firms at a disaggregate level as well as at a sectoral level using fixed effects, random effects and lagged effects to arrive at novel results, which have important implications for their competitiveness.
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As one of the main purposes of financial statements is to provide relevant information for investors, relationships between share prices and accounting variables have been widely…
Abstract
Purpose
As one of the main purposes of financial statements is to provide relevant information for investors, relationships between share prices and accounting variables have been widely researched. Early studies focus mainly on earnings, but attention has turned in recent years to valuation models that include the book value of the equity. Many of these studies cite the residual income model as their theoretical base and, with the growing emphasis on shareholder value, residual income measures are more commonly used in the business community to track financial performance. Given such trends, the purpose of this paper is to review the theoretical background of the residual income model and discuss results of empirical studies that use it.
Design/methodology/approach
The study seeks an understanding of how published accounting information relates to share prices in the developed market in Asia, outside Japan. More specifically, the study aims to extend the international literature in market based accounting research by examining empirical evidence on relationships between share prices and the two summary accounting variables of equity book value and earnings for firms listed on the stock exchange in Malaysia.
Findings
The findings imply that, the two accounting variables summarising the balance sheet and the income statement, respectively, are significant factors in the valuation process, and that managers are justified in using the accounting system as a primary source of information for monitoring financial performance.
Originality/value
These findings should be of interest to other researchers, and to managers and investors who currently use or are planning to use residual income to monitor business performance.
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Seyed Reza Zeytoonnejad Mousavian, Seyyed Mehdi Mirdamadi, Seyed Jamal Farajallah Hosseini and Maryam Omidi NajafAbadi
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is an important means of boosting the agricultural sectors of developing economies. The first necessary step to formulate effective public policies…
Abstract
Purpose
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is an important means of boosting the agricultural sectors of developing economies. The first necessary step to formulate effective public policies to encourage agricultural FDI inflow to a host country is to develop a comprehensive understanding of the main determinants of FDI inflow to the agricultural sector, which is the main objective of the present study.
Design/methodology/approach
In view of this, we take a comprehensive approach to exploring the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of FDI inflow to the agricultural sector by examining a large panel data set on agricultural FDI inflows of 37 countries, investigating both groups of developed and developing countries, incorporating a large list of potentially relevant macroeconomic and institutional variables, and applying panel-data econometric models and estimation structures, including pooled, fixed-effects and random-effects regression models.
Findings
The general pattern of our findings implies that the degree of openness of an economy has a negative effect on FDI inflows to agricultural sectors, suggesting that the higher the degree of openness in an economy, the lower the level of agricultural protection against foreign trade and imports, and thus the less incentive for FDI to inflow to the agricultural sector of the economy. Additionally, our results show that economic growth (as an indicator of the rate of market-size growth in the host economy) and per-capita real GDP (as an indicator of the standard of living in the host country) are both positively related to FDI inflows to agricultural sectors. Our other results suggest that agricultural FDI tends to flow more to developing countries in general and more to those with higher standards of living and income levels in particular.
Originality/value
FDI inflow has not received much attention with respect to the identification of its main determinants in the context of agricultural sectors. Additionally, there are very few panel-data studies on the determinants of FDI, and even more surprisingly, there are no such studies on the main determinants of FDI inflow to the agricultural sector. We have taken a comprehensive approach by studying FDI inflow variations across countries as well as over time.
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The study aims to understand how published accounting information relates to share prices in a developed market in Asia, outside Japan. More specifically, the study aims to extend…
Abstract
The study aims to understand how published accounting information relates to share prices in a developed market in Asia, outside Japan. More specifically, the study aims to extend the international literature in market‐based accounting research by examining empirical evidence on relationships between share prices and the two summary accounting variables of equity book value and earnings for firms listed on the stock exchange in Malaysia.
William R. DiPeitro and Emmanuel Anoruo
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the size of government and public debt on real economic growth, for a panel of 175 countries around the world.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the size of government and public debt on real economic growth, for a panel of 175 countries around the world.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper utilizes the fixed‐effects and random‐effects techniques to estimate the panel regressions.
Findings
The results indicate that both the size of government and the extent of government indebtedness have negative effects on economic growth.
Practical implications
The findings suggest that the authorities ought to take the necessary steps to curtail excessive government spending and public debts, in order to promote economic growth.
Originality/value
The contribution of the paper is its application of the fixed‐ and random‐effects techniques in modeling the relation of real economic growth to the size of government and public debt, for a panel of 175 countries around the world.
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Sotiris Tsolacos, Kyung‐Min Kim and Ruijue Peng
The purpose of this paper is to examine the variation and dispersion of prime retail yields in eight Asia‐Pacific centres. It seeks to provide empirical evidence on the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the variation and dispersion of prime retail yields in eight Asia‐Pacific centres. It seeks to provide empirical evidence on the significance of real estate and capital market influences as systematic drivers of retail yields in the sample of eight cities. The aim is to build a model that enables market participants to obtain base case yield forecasts.
Design/methodology/approach
A panel model is deployed in this study utilising a database of yields of eight years (2001‐2007). The small number of observations for retail yields across cities is addressed with this approach, which combines time‐series and cross‐section data. A fixed‐effect specification allows for city specific influences that partially capture the heterogeneity of cities in the sample. Within this framework the influence of time varying factors across markets and random effects on yields is examined.
Findings
The empirical estimates established significant influences from real rent growth and interest rates on retail yields explaining 78 per cent of their variation when allowed for fixed effects. Systematic time influences and market size are not significant. Retail yields are found fairly sensitive to long‐term interest (LTI) rates with 1 per cent change in LTI rates resulting in an over 80 basis points shift in yields. In general, investors should be aware of interest rate shocks as these can move retail yields in the region significantly. Based on the actual and simulated values for 2007 Shanghai and Hong Kong are broadly fairly priced. In Tokyo, Sydney and Singapore retail yields are somewhat lower than the simulated values, which are attributed to greater liquidity and transparency in these markets than indicating over‐pricing. In Delhi, the prime yield above the actual a sign of a possible outward movement is found. Beijing appears under‐priced. Finally, in Mumbai, which has the highest yield in the sample, the simulated yield is below actual as per 2007. An adjustment may not be expected as this difference is attributed to the pricing of supply risks in this market.
Originality/value
This study addresses the dearth of research work on retail yields in the Asia‐Pacific region. Through the panel methodology proposed market participants can obtain fundamentals‐based forecasts for prime retail yields in the sample of the eight cities, understand the exposure to interest rate movements and make calls as to whether markets are mispriced. The study shows that pooling data and panel techniques represent a good option to study market dynamics in situations of small datasets.
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Nusrate Aziz and M. Niaz Asadullah
While the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth during the Cold War period is well-researched, relatively less is known on the issue for the post-Cold War…
Abstract
Purpose
While the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth during the Cold War period is well-researched, relatively less is known on the issue for the post-Cold War era. Equally how the relationship varies with respect to exposure to conflict is also not fully examined. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal impact of military expenditure on growth in the presence of internal and external threats for the period 1990-2013 using data from 70 developing countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The main estimates are based on the generalized method of moments (GMM) regression model. But for comparison purposes, the authors also report estimates using fixed and random effects as well as pooled cross-section regressions. The regression specification accounts for non-linear effect of military expenditure allowing for interaction with conflict variable (where distinction is made between external and internal conflict).
Findings
The analysis indicates that methods as well as model specification matter in studying the effect of military spending on growth. Full sample estimates based on GMM, fixed, and random effects models suggest a negative and statistically significant effect of military expenditure. However, fixed effects estimate becomes insignificant for low-income countries. The effect of military spending is also insignificant in the cross-sectional OLS model if conflict is not considered. When the regression model additionally controls for conflict, the effect of military spending conditional upon (internal) conflict exposure is significant and positive. No such effect is present conditional upon external threat.
Research limitations/implications
One important limitation of the analysis is the small sample size – the authors had to restrict analysis to 70 low and middle-income countries for which the authors could construct post-Cold War panel data on military expenditure along with information on armed conflict exposure (the later from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 2015).
Originality/value
To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper to examine the joint impact of military expenditure and conflict on economic growth in post-Cold War period in a sample of developing countries. Moreover, an attempt is made to review and revisit the large Cold War literature where studies vary considerably in terms findings. A key reason for this is the somewhat ad hoc choice of econometric methods – most rely on cross-section data and rarely conduct sensitivity analysis. The authors instead rely on panel data estimates but also report results based on naïve models for comparison purposes.
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