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Ecuador’s Noboa will struggle in office

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ECUADOR

His rival, Luisa Gonzalez of the leftist Citizen Revolution (RC), has recognised the result. Noboa, who belongs to one of Ecuador’s wealthiest families, will take office next…

Local tensions will sustain Iraq’s returns challenge

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IRAQ

Five years after its collapse, IS has a declining presence in Iraq. However, the question of how to deal with the many displaced people perceived as being associated with the…

Afghan opposition will struggle to remain relevant

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AFGHANISTAN

Meanwhile, long-standing opposition groups such as the National Resistance Front (NRF) and Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) have re-launched armed campaigns within Afghanistan.

Afghan Taliban will be flexible on foreign jihadists

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AFGHANISTAN

However, at the end of the month, US President Joe Biden made comments suggesting that the Taliban are helping to drive al-Qaida out of Afghanistan. Moreover, the UN Assistance…

Protracted debt talks may stall Ghana's recovery

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GHANA

This follows IMF Executive Board approval, on May 17, of a 36-month USD3bn Extended Credit Facility (ECF) aimed at addressing the country’s debt crisis. This was followed…

Israeli-Palestinian war will break old assumptions

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ISRAEL/PALESTINIANS

It occupied towns and army installations, killing and kidnapping hundreds and fighting pitched battles with Israeli forces. Israel formally declared war on October 8, signalling…

Prospects for African economies to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

The downgrade reflects the expected realisation this year of the delayed global economic slowdown. The resulting debt overhang in the region has depleted the space for fiscal…

Sudan aid response faces capacity challenges

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SUDAN

Collectively, participants pledged some USD2.2bn in humanitarian assistance for Sudan, against an appeal for USD4.1bn from aid agencies.

FDC scandal will reshape Uganda’s opposition landscape

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UGANDA

This followed allegations by several FDC leaders that party President Patrick Amuriat and Secretary-General Nandala Mafabi received funds from the ruling National Resistance…

Prospects for Middle East conflict in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Hamas and its allies hope to press Israel to turn back before then, but that is highly unlikely unless Washington changes tack or Israel suffers an internal political crisis. A…