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The results of this study have significant policy implications for charting a new course toward enhancing agricultural productivity among Chinese farmers.

By establishing a rural household decision-making model based on the transfer market of farmland operation rights, this paper systematically analyzes the effects of land transfer-in and land transfer-out on the productivity (per labor income) of rural households. The authors conducted basic regression analysis and robustness tests using propensity score-matching and proxy variable approaches based on the micro survey data from rural households in 30 counties in 21 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions in 2013.

After the completion of land transfer, the total productivity of rural households transferring in lands will increase with an increase in the agricultural productivity; the total productivity of rural households transferring out land will increase due to a rise in non-agricultural productivity and the absolute total productivity of rural households not involved in land transfer will remain unchanged.

Unlike previous literature, this paper discusses the impacts of land transfer-in and transfer-out on total productivity, agricultural productivity and non-agricultural productivity among various rural households (i.e. those transferring in land, transferring out land or which are self-sufficient).