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Cocktail of crises to scar the global economic outlook

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

A global recession now looks as likely as not after the IMF warned that the “worst is yet to come” for the world economy

Higher interest rates will stress real estate activity

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INTERNATIONAL

House prices have risen by 15% in emerging nations since end-2019 and 26% in advanced nations but price growth will slow

Policy and technology are key to full financial access

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INT

Nearly 70% of all over-15s are ‘banked’; at least 76% of them have also made a digital transaction

Non-financial risks may spur the next financial crisis

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INTERNATIONAL

Asking 13,000 business leaders their top risks to doing business shows that non-financial fears are rising in importance

ECB will ease monetary policy further on March 10

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EURO-AREA

Downside risks, tightening of financial conditions and weak inflation dynamics

Inclusion and privacy policies may lag cashless growth

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INTERNATIONAL

Cashless spending is surging, giving customers and traders more flexibility and reducing ‘organisational’ costs

Global spending needs will undermine austerity call

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INT

The IMF urges “decisive fiscal consolidation” to guard public budgets and rebuild buffers, but spending needs will rise

Digital currencies lag puts crypto investors at risk

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INTERNATIONAL

Some 87 countries, accounting for over 90% of global GDP, are exploring the potential of central bank digital currencies

Iranian foreign policy will be internally divided

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IRAN

The military priorities of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps could undercut the foreign ministry’s soft diplomacy

Widening global imbalances raise geopolitical risks

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INT

The German and US external balances have worsened while China, Russia and Saudi Arabia’s surpluses have improved