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Tunisian public wage bill will limit state investment

Location:

TUNISIA

Tunis is wary of cutting state jobs -- and thus its salary burden -- which is hampering capital expenditure

Shadow governance to deepen weak African state control

Location:

AFRICA

The preponderance of weak states in sub-Saharan Africa provides ample scope for non-state actors to seize territory

'Shadow governance' fragments Middle East states

Location:

MIDDLE EAST

Regional conflicts have given rise to non-state actors that provide alternate types of governance

Russian navy will grow assertive despite ageing fleet

Location:

RUSSIA

The navy's contribution to the Syrian military operation showed its effectiveness operating close to Russian shores

Few options for post-Soviet 'shadow governance' zones

Location:

CIS

Attempts to win recognition have failed and annexation by 'patron states' would present large challenges

Powers will fight proxy wars in impoverished Syria

Location:

SYRIA

With the Gaza conflict raging, Syrians face military pressure from all sides, as economic constraints also tighten

Long-term refugee problems may mould the Middle East

Location:

MIDDLE EAST

Refugees and IDPs who do not return home within six months have a high probability of protracted displacement

Latin America's 'shadow governance' zones are unstable

Location:

LATIN AMERICA

Turf wars and the evolution of armed groups threaten to trigger violent shifts in established illicitly-governed areas

African coup risk will be regionally concentrated

Location:

AFRICA

Gabon and Niger have both experienced coups this year, raising concerns over wider coup risks