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Paris will struggle to balance Rabat and Algiers ties

Location:

MOROCCO/ALGERIA

The Algerian foreign minister had previously said a presidential visit to France, initially planned for the first half of 2023, remains pending. France has been forced into an…

Poland’s expected new government faces range of risks

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POLAND

Financial markets are betting that ending the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s eight-year rule will help unlock EU funds, strengthen Poland’s institutions and increase its…

The United States will balance North African ties

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NORTH AFRICA

US attention to the region has risen amid tenser Algerian-Moroccan ties. Harris underlined that any military escalation would be "quite alarming" and would set back prospects for…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

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TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

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RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

Risks will outweigh recovery chances in Eastern Europe

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EASTERN EUROPE

The economic environment has been dictated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its market and policy implications. Next year, the prospects for the V4 economies are moderately upbeat…

China’s defence spending will remain stable

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CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…

After a strong year for Australia, growth will slow

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AUSTRALIA

This figure is higher than the RBA’s forecast of 1.5%, as labour demand remains strong and business investment resumes as supply chain disruption subsides. However, persistent…

South Korea will regain growth momentum

Location:

SOUTH KOREA

Separately, the head of Samsung Electronics -- the cornerstone of the Samsung Group, which contributes around 20% of South Korea’s GDP -- has been cleared of wrongdoing in a…

US-China ties stabilise but trade concerns remain

Location:

US

Their meeting eclipsed the APEC session in San Francisco, as did the Biden administration’s eleventh-hour decision to suspend the trade pillar of its four-part Indo-Pacific…