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Predicting commodity futures trading volumes represents an important matter to policymakers and a wide spectrum of market participants. The purpose of this study is to concentrate on the energy sector and explore the trading volume prediction issue for the thermal coal futures traded in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China with daily data spanning January 2016–December 2020.

The nonlinear autoregressive neural network is adopted for this purpose and prediction performance is examined based upon a variety of settings over algorithms for model estimations, numbers of hidden neurons and delays and ratios for splitting the trading volume series into training, validation and testing phases.

A relatively simple model setting is arrived at that leads to predictions of good accuracy and stabilities and maintains small prediction errors up to the 99.273th quantile of the observed trading volume.

The results could, on one hand, serve as standalone technical trading volume predictions. They could, on the other hand, be combined with different (fundamental) prediction results for forming perspectives of trading trends and carrying out policy analysis.

This study empirically examines the moderating role of geopolitical risk on the tourism–economic growth nexus by applying a recent geopolitical risk indicator developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) in a cross-country panel data growth model context for a sample of 24 countries.

A Dummy Variable Least Squares panel data model, nonparametric covariance matrix estimator and SYS-GMM estimation techniques are employed for the analysis. The authors capture the GPR moderating effect by disaggregating the cross-country sample according to low versus high country GPR score and through a GPR interaction coefficient. Several controls are included in the models such as gross fixed capital formation and—consistent with Barro (1990)—government consumption. Trade openness is used to account for the export-led growth effect. In line with neoclassical growth theory (e.g. Barro, 1991), the authors also include the real interest rate, to account for policy makers' commitment to macroeconomic stability, financial depth, as a proxy for financial development, population growth and the level of secondary school education. The authors also control for unobserved country-specific and time-invariant effects.

The research finds that the interaction term of geopolitical risk significantly contributes to the predictive ability of the regression and provides empirical evidence that confirms that only in low geopolitical risk countries international tourism positively and significantly contributes to economic growth. Important theoretical and policy implications flow from these findings.

The study not only contributes to advancing academic knowledge on the tourism–growth nexus, it also has impact beyond academia. Many countries have in the past pursued and many continue to pursue, tourism specialization and/or tourism-led growth strategies based on the theoretically well-established and empirically validated positive link between inbound tourism and economic growth. The findings alert policy makers in such countries to the significant moderating role that geopolitical risk plays in affecting the above-mentioned relationship and to the importance of prioritizing geopolitical stability as a policy precursor for the successful implementation of such strategies.

The purpose of this study is to present a systematic and comprehensive review of personalized, adaptive and semantic e-learning systems.

Preferred reporting items of systematic reviews and meta-analyses guidelines have been used for a thorough insight into associated aspects of e-learning that complement the e-learning pedagogies and processes. The aspects of e-learning systems have been reviewed comprehensively such as personalization and adaptivity, e-learning and semantics, learner profiling and learner categorization, which are handy in intelligent content recommendations for learners.

The adoption of semantic Web based technologies would complement the learner’s performance in terms of learning outcomes.

The evaluation of the proposed framework depends upon the yearly batch of learners and recording is a cumbersome/tedious process.

E-Learning systems may have diverse and positive impact on society including democratized learning and inclusivity regardless of socio-economic or geographic status.

A preliminary framework of an ontology-based e-learning system has been proposed at a modular level of granularity for implementation, along with evaluation metrics followed by a future roadmap.

The purpose of this study is to develop a new hybrid method that combines interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and matrix cross-impact multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) to investigate the influencing factors of sustainable infrastructure vulnerability (SIV).

(1) Literature review and case study were used to identify the possible influencing factors; (2) a semi-structured interview was conducted to identify representative factors and the interrelationships among influencing factors; (3) ISM was adopted to identify the hierarchical structure of factors; (4) MICMAC was used to analyze the driving power (DRP) and dependence power (DEP) of each factor and (5) Semi-structured interview was used to propose strategies for overcoming SIV.

Results indicate that (1) 18 representative factors related to SIV were identified; (2) the relationship between these factors was divided into a five-layer hierarchical structure. The 18 representative factors were divided into driving factors, dependent factors, linkage factors and independent factors and (3) 12 strategies were presented to address the negative effects of these factors.

The findings illustrate the factors influencing SIV and their hierarchical structures, which can benefit the stakeholders and practitioners of an infrastructure project by encouraging them to take effective countermeasures to deal with related SIVs.

Abnormal behaviors such as rework, backlog, changes and claims generated by project organizations are unavoidable in complex projects. When abnormal behaviors emerge, the previously normal state of interactions between organizations will be altered to some extent. However, previous studies have ignored the associations and interactions between organizations in the context of abnormal organizational behaviors (AOBs), making this challenging to cope with AOBs. As a result, the objective of this paper is to explore how to reduce AOBs in complex projects at the organizational level from a network perspective.

To overcome the inherent limitations of a single case study, this research integrated two data collection methods: questionnaire survey and expert scoring method. The questionnaire survey captured the universal data on the influence possibility of AOBs between complex project organizations and the expert scoring method got the influence probability scores of AOBs between organizations in the case. Using these data, four organizational influence network models of AOBs based on a case were developed to demonstrate how to destroy AOBs networks in complex projects using network attack theory (NAT).

First, the findings show that controlling AOBs generated by key organizations preferentially and improving the ability of key organizations can weaken AOBs network, enabling more effective coping strategies. Second, the owners, government, material suppliers and designers are identified as key organizations across all four influence networks of AOBs. Third, change and claim behaviors are more manageable from the organizational level.

Project managers can target specific organizations for intervention, weaken the AOBs network by applying NAT and achieve better project outcomes through coping strategies. Additionally, by taking a network perspective, this research provides a novel approach to comprehending the associations and interactions between organizations in the context of complex projects.

This paper proposes a new approach to investigating AOBs in complex projects by simultaneously examining rework, backlog, change and claim. Leveraging NAT as a novel tool for managing the harmful effects of influence networks, this study extends the knowledge body in the field of organizational behavior (OB) management and complex project management.