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1 – 10 of 306What kinds of support do interstate rivals provide to domestic actors in ongoing civil wars? And how do domestic actors utilize the support they receive? This chapter answers…
Abstract
What kinds of support do interstate rivals provide to domestic actors in ongoing civil wars? And how do domestic actors utilize the support they receive? This chapter answers these questions by comparing Iranian and Saudi military and non-military (mediation, foreign aid and religious soft-power promotion) support to the Houthis and to the Government of Yemen (GoY) during the Saada wars (2004–2010) and the internationalized civil war (2015–2018). It also focuses on the processes through which the GoY and the Houthis have utilized this support for their own strategic purposes. This chapter applies a structured, focused comparison methodology and relies on data from a review of both primary and secondary sources complemented by 14 interviews. This chapter finds that there were less external interventions in the conflict in Saada than in the internationalized civil war. During the latter, a broader set of intervention strategies enabled further instrumentalization by domestic actors, which in turn contributed to the protracted nature of the conflict. This chapter contributes to the literature on interstate rivalry and third-party intervention. The framework of analysis is applicable to civil wars that experience intervention by rivals, such as Syria or Libya.
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Imran Khan and Darshita Fulara Gunwant
The purpose of this research is to develop a predictive model that can estimate the volume of remittances channeled toward Yemen’s economic reconstruction efforts.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to develop a predictive model that can estimate the volume of remittances channeled toward Yemen’s economic reconstruction efforts.
Design/methodology/approach
This study utilized a time-series dataset encompassing remittance inflows into Yemen’s economy from 1990 to 2022. The Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology was employed to forecast remittance inflows for the period 2023 to 2030.
Findings
The study’s findings indicate a downward trajectory in remittance inflows over the next eight years, with projections suggesting a potential decline to 4.122% of Yemen’s gross domestic product by the end of 2030. This significant decrease in remittance inflows highlights the immediate need for concrete steps from economic policymakers to curb the potential decline in remittance inflows and its impact on Yemen’s economic recovery efforts.
Originality/value
The impact of global remittance inflows on various macroeconomic and microeconomic factors has long been of interest to researchers, policymakers, and academics. Yemen has been embroiled in violent clashes over a decade, leading to a fragmentation of central authority and the formation of distinct local alliances. In such prolonged turmoil, foreign aid often falls short, providing only temporary relief for basic needs. Consequently, the importance of migrant remittances in sustaining communities affected by conflict and disasters has increased. Remittances have played a crucial role in fostering economic progress and improving social services for families transitioning from conflict to peace. Therefore, this study aims to estimate and forecast the volume of remittances flowing into Yemen, to assist in the nation’s economic reconstruction.
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The purpose of this study is to cover the change that happened in the American foreign policy toward Iran by changing the American leadership from Obama to Trump. In addition to…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to cover the change that happened in the American foreign policy toward Iran by changing the American leadership from Obama to Trump. In addition to its coverage for the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region during the presidency period of Obama in the USA and also during the presidency period of Trump, to discover whether a change has happened in the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region is a result of the change in the American foreign policy or not. This can be discovered by concentrating on Yemen, Syria and Iraq, taking into consideration the Iranian and American national interests in the Arab region, as well as the regional role of Iran and its intervention in the Arab region.
Design/methodology/approach
This study was based on the analytical method of the foreign policy that is based on analyzing facts and events, as well as analyzing the roles and interests within the framework of the states’ foreign policy. This method was used in the study for the purpose of analyzing the impact of the change in the American leadership from Obama to Trump on the US foreign policy toward Iran in the light of the American interest; in addition to the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region (Yemen, Syria and Iraq) in the presidency period of both Obama and Trump in light of the regional role of Iran and its passion to achieve its national interest.
Findings
The study concluded that the change in the American foreign policy toward Iran is a result of the change of the American leadership from Obama to Trump by the American interest requirements in accordance to the respective of both of them. The change in the American policy led to a change in the trends of the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region in the term of the regional Iranian role. Under the American and Iranian convergence in the period of Obama, the Iranian role in the Arab region was limited to what could achieve its national interest and what did not threaten the American interest, especially after Iran had guaranteed that the USA is by its side. In the framework of the American and Iranian confrontation under Trump’s current presidency, the Iranian role has expanded in the Arab region, where Iran has intensified its intervention in Yemen, Syria and Iraq politically and militarily. Iran became more threatening to the American interest, as it became a means of pressure to the USA under Trump’s ruling in the purpose of changing its position toward it.
Originality/value
The importance of the study stems from the fact that it is seeking to analyze the change of the American foreign policy toward Iran within the period of two different presidential years of Obama and Trump, whereas, their trends were different in dealing with Iran between rapprochement and hostility toward it, on the basis of the American interest. In addition to testing whether this change in the American foreign policy toward Iran has been accompanied by a change in the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region.
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YEMEN: Government will hit again at Huthi revenues
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES289759
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
Topical
YEMEN: Rights violations will increase in the north
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES288983
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
YEMEN: Status quo drives disease and pollution
YEMEN: UN position in the north will be precarious
The PLC is deeply divided, and economic conditions are deteriorating. There is no indication of improved governance in the southern areas of Yemen that it holds, despite the…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286310
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Lars Mjøset, Roel Meijer, Nils Butenschøn and Kristian Berg Harpviken
This study employs Stein Rokkan's methodological approach to analyse state formation in the Greater Middle East. It develops a conceptual framework distinguishing colonial…
Abstract
This study employs Stein Rokkan's methodological approach to analyse state formation in the Greater Middle East. It develops a conceptual framework distinguishing colonial, populist and democratic pacts, suitable for analysis of state formation and nation-building through to the present period. The framework relies on historical institutionalism. The methodology, however, is Rokkan's. The initial conceptual analysis also specifies differences between European and the Middle Eastern state formation processes. It is followed by a brief and selective discussion of historical preconditions. Next, the method of plotting singular cases into conceptual-typological maps is applied to 20 cases in the Greater Middle East (including Afghanistan, Iran and Turkey). For reasons of space, the empirical analysis is limited to the colonial period (1870s to the end of World War 1). Three typologies are combined into one conceptual-typological map of this period. The vertical left-hand axis provides a composite typology that clarifies cultural-territorial preconditions. The horizontal axis specifies transformations of the region's agrarian class structures since the mid-19th century reforms. The right-hand vertical axis provides a four-layered typology of processes of external intervention. A final section presents selected comparative case reconstructions. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first time such a Rokkan-style conceptual-typological map has been constructed for a non-European region.
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YEMEN: Monetary divides show stalling of peace talks