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Israeli-Arab normalisation will freeze, not reverse

Location:

ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST

Deepening Gulf-Israel normalisation -- and particularly heavy US-backed efforts to advance a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia -- set the context for the Hamas attack against…

China’s army will step up reform efforts

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CHINA

This was consistent with a long-running emphasis on preparing the PLA for future warfare that involves new types of informational and technological dynamics. One effect will be to…

EU will be assertive with new trade defence tools

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EU

First cases pursued under the FSR show it could be one of the most far-reaching of the strategic autonomy measures introduced under this Commission. One Chinese company has…

South-east Asia may align more with China in near term

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SOUTH-EAST ASIA

A key finding is that 50.5% of respondents would pick China if forced to take sides in US-Chinese rivalry, up from 38.9% in 2023. China continues to be regarded as the most…

Uzbekistan will seek more Chinese investment

Location:

UZBEKISTAN

In late January, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev paid a state visit to China to seek greater investment and trade opportunities. Mirziyoyev’s visit is the culmination of years…

Saudi Aramco will seek to manage rapid industry change

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SAUDI ARABIA

Yet this follows a government directive that the company cancel increases in its maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) of crude oil production from 12 million barrels per day (b/d…

Costa Rica's medical device sector will grow further

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COSTA RICA

Precision and medical equipment has been the country’s largest export sector since 2017. It maintained that position in 2023, achieving 28% growth year-on-year and contributing…

Social media fragmentation raises disinformation risks

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INT

One driving factor of this risk is that in 2024 over 4 billion people -- around half the world's population -- will be able to vote in elections. These polls will take place at a…

France’s Ukraine position exposes Western divisions

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FRANCE

Despite criticism from Western allies, Macron’s position has remained firm. This comes against the backdrop of tensions with Germany, upcoming European Parliament elections and…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…