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Among natural disasters, drought affected the most people worldwide during the past few decades (Obasi, 1994). Since the late 1970s, there has been a shift in El Niño-Southern Oscillation toward more warm events, closely related to a worldwide trend for intensified drought (Dai, Trenberth, & Karl, 1998). In particular, this trend was manifested as widespread droughts during 1999–2002 in the northern hemisphere (Lotsch, Friedl, Anderson, & Tucker, 2005), including Asia, and notably in Mongolia (Nandintsetseg, Shinoda, Kimura, & Ibaraki, 2010; Shinoda, Ito, Nachinshonhor, & Erdenetsetseg, 2007). The decade of 2000s has experienced increased vegetation degradation and wind erosion that resulted from decreased summer precipitation in wide areas of East Asia (Kurosaki, Shinoda, & Mikami, 2011a; Kurosaki, Shinoda, Mikami, & Nandintsetseg, 2011b). Furthermore, in general, projections of climate models have suggested that the frequency and intensity of extreme weathers will likely increase in the future (IPCC WG I, 2007). Given this background, it is vital to make an assessment of socioeconomic impacts of the extreme weathers and to develop proactive approaches to mitigating such impacts.

The Indus, Mekong, and Ganges River deltas, which have created one of the world’s largest delta and submarine fan system, currently contribute a major fraction of freshwater to East and South Asia. All these deltas are those regions in the world that face major challenges in their water sector due to population growth, urbanization, industrialization, sea-level rise, and salinity intrusion into inland and water bodies, all aggravated by climate change. Among them, salinity intrusion is currently one of the key issues that directly and indirectly cause water insecurity in East and South Asia, which ultimately hamper livelihood, agricultural production, and social interference. Hence, this chapter gives a comprehensive description on the nature and extent of the salinity problem, its adverse effects on livelihood and water sector, and then the focus goes to current and future sustainable water resource management within the delta to finally move on to conclusion and suggestions.

In this chapter, the title theme of “Disaster by Design” is explored and justified. Even from early times, the Aral Region was subject to alterations of natural conditions due to human intervention, often deliberate and designed. After the final conquest by Russia, the region became a fixed colony as part of the Soviet Union, ripe for exploitation characteristic of the Soviet approach to nature broadly and to stigmatized areas specifically. The Aral region was selected for irrigated cotton and other cultivation even though the consequences for desiccation of the sea, desertification, and salinization were understood. The decision was so calculated that even a cost–benefit analysis was offered to show that the Aral fishery was worth but a fraction of the cotton potential. The destruction of the region was made possible by a Soviet system of central planning and peripheral control. The brief glimmer of hope for the region evidenced during glasnost was the only moment where the Aral's fate was not sealed. The outcome is a model of ecological disaster by design, an environmental injustice, and an indication of the abusive nature of authoritarian power.

Ever since human society developed, environmental and social changes have led to major challenges that must be dealt with. Some of these major challenges are seen as “disasters,” for which a definition that is frequently used is similar to “A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources” (UNISDR, 2004; see, e.g., Quarantelli, 1998, and Furedi, 2007, for discussions on the meaning(s) of “disaster”). From witnessing disasters and being forced to work through the aftermath, humanity has been shifting toward trying to reduce disasters’ impacts or to avert them entirely. This field has the modern-day interpretation of “disaster risk reduction,” defined as “The conceptual framework of elements considered with the possibilities to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development” (UNISDR, 2004).

This chapter explores the lessons of the Aral Sea disaster for social learning and for achieving future sustainability in the Aral region. Evident is what might be called “the law of delayed response” which states that social response tends to lag behind deteriorating ecological conditions. The bounding of the Aral Sea problems at various scales of consideration from local to global is explored, with a particular emphasis on the importance of a bioregional approach. Not only is the Aral disaster a global problem, part of the overall climate crisis, but it is also a much replicated disaster, sharing a global but decentralized impact. Proposals address the need for sustainable outcomes in the Aral region.

This chapter briefly discusses an often overlooked impact of the loss of the Aral Sea, the social costs to the population in the surrounding areas. While much focus has been on the shrinkage of the Aral in the past half century, the story is much older and includes a diversity of people, ecosystems, and productive ways of living in a harsh climate. This chapter is an overview of how ecological parameters have influenced life for the local population in Karakalpakstan. The research is based on a short site visit and tests ideas for a longer project that will look at who is migrating for employment, based on what criteria, and the dynamics of that choice. Seminal writings about human activity around the Aral when it was full, along with recent reports on livelihoods, health, and migration patterns are reviewed. The chapter supports the idea that migration can be an adaptation to climate. Migration is overall a negative social sustainability indicator for Karakalpakstan.

Twenty years after Schumacher's death, the wisdom, warnings and predictions contained in these [his] controversial writings, are seen to be more relevant than ever. Some of his views, such as those on total accounting and accountability, taking not only monetary but environmental and non-renewable resource costs into consideration in policy making, are now at last creeping into the political agenda. (D. Schumacher, 1997, Introduction, p. 17)

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on the regional impacts of Climate Change (IPCC, 2007a), a drastic change in rainfall patterns in the warmer climate would occur in Bangladesh, and it may experience a 5% to 6% increase of rainfall by 2030 due to glacier melting and more intense monsoons, which will create frequent large and prolonged floods as well as an increase in droughts outside the monsoon season. Furthermore, in the context of global warming, most of the climatic models project a decrease in precipitation in the dry season and an increase during the monsoon season in south Asia (Christensen et al., 2007). This will cause a combination of more extreme floods and droughts in this region. Therefore, the moderately drought-affected areas will be turned into severely drought-prone areas within next 20 to 30 years (IPCC, 2007b).

A recent National Research Council study estimates that there are now 217,000 contaminated sites in the United States (NRC, 2003a). The proliferation of hazardous contamination across the landscape is an unwelcome if unsurprising byproduct of industrialization during the past century and the ledger continues to grow despite billions spent on remediation. Both government and the private sector are culpable in the production and disposal practices that created these sites. Although most sites are small and privately owned, the largest, and the majority of the most hazardous sites, were created by government itself. This is particularly the case with respect to nuclear weapons production, development and testing, but is also the result of other defense-related activities. These sites collectively contain billions of cubic yards of soil and groundwater in need of remediation (NRC, 2003a). Many would threaten both the environment and human health in their current condition, if present-day management control were to be neglected or lost.