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Papua New Guinea instability will increase

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PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Marape's government is attempting to manage growing political fallout from widespread rioting in January, economic dislocation arising from fuel shortages and a spiralling…

Cape Verde: Reform agenda may face pushback

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CAPE VERDE

The elections are likely to be organised in November. The MpD currently holds 14 of 22 municipalities. The elections will take place at a moment when the government is set to take…

Cambodia’s Hun Manet will prioritise economy

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CAMBODIA

The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) -- led by former premier Hun Sen, Hun Manet’s father -- won 120 out of 125 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house, in last July’s…

Commercial property poses risks for narrow focus banks

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EUROPE

Banks in larger EU states are heavily exposed to European and US CRE markets, which have further to fall in 2024. Writedowns are underway, dealing a blow to sentiment and harming…

Sanctions will increase risks for Russian economy

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RUSSIA

However, although output has grown, a tight labour market and persistent inflation have created new problems. The reorientation of trade away from Europe has resulted in a…

Recovery of Russian consumption is likely to moderate

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RUSSIA

Strong household demand, now restored to pre-war levels, mitigated the impact on GDP of falling exports last year. The consumer market is profoundly changed, with new brands from…

Turkey will reduce inflation gradually

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TURKEY

Although the central bank has increased interest rates substantially since June 2023, the effects on economic activity and inflation have been limited. Prices and policy…

Ethiopia may fail to deliver on transitional justice

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ETHIOPIA

The policy includes some changes from the justice ministry’s initial draft, most significantly the removal of a proposal for a special court to prosecute the most serious crimes…

Iran is approaching the limits of its oil expansion

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IRAN

Iran’s increasingly skilled sanctions evasion (aided by less intense US enforcement) has made it the second-largest contributor to higher global oil output over the past year…

East Africa wind power will expand despite challenges

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EAST AFRICA

With an installed capacity of 310 megawatts, LTWP is Africa’s largest operational wind farm. However, despite its potential, wind power remains a small part of East Africa’s…