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Despite significant progress in Iran's immunization programs, vaccine policymaking in the country still faces various challenges and shortcomings. To address these issues and ensure sustained progress toward achieving comprehensive vaccination policies, it is essential to identify the critical factors influencing vaccine policies in Iran. Our study aims to provide evidence-based insights that can inform the development of effective and equitable vaccine strategies, leading to a more sustainable and efficient approach to vaccination in the country.

This mixed-method study aimed to analyze the factors influencing the future of human vaccine policy using Cross Impact Analysis. Firstly, a scoping review was conducted to identify the factors affecting the future of human vaccine development. Secondly, a semi-structured interview was conducted with experts in this field to add more factors and confirm the identified factors within the Iranian context. Finally, a Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) approach was applied to comprehend the complex relationships between the identified factors. Thematic analysis was used for the qualitative data, and MICMAC analysis was applied to characterize the relationships between the factors.

Seventeen key driving force factors were identified through comprehensive review and interviews. These factors were assigned weighted values ranging from zero to three and subsequently analyzed using MICMAC software. Employing the Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) technique, the study characterized the impact of each factor on vaccine policy and elucidated the intricate interactions between them. The findings underscored that robust leadership and governance, an innovative ecosystem, and well-established immunization information systems emerged as pivotal driving forces shaping vaccine policy in Iran.

While this study contributes valuable insights into the driving factors influencing vaccine policy in Iran, it is important to acknowledge several limitations. The results rely on the subjective perceptions of a diverse group of specialists, and future research could delve into additional factors in other countries to identify common themes and differences.

This study provides evidence to assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding vaccines in Iran. The findings suggest that enhancing access to vaccines, fostering trust in the healthcare system, and prioritizing equity in distribution can contribute to increased vaccination rates and a reduction in vaccine-preventable diseases.

This study provides a unique contribution to the field of vaccine policy by utilizing the cross-impact analysis to examine the complex interactions among various factors. The results of this analysis demonstrate that these interactions can significantly impact the overall system, highlighting the need for policymakers to consider multiple factors when formulating effective strategies. By revealing the significance of these interactions, this research offers valuable insights into the development of successful policies that can shape a desirable future for vaccine policy in Iran. Future studies could ratify the findings from this research by applying other methodological approaches.

In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters.

This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched.

A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning.

The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.