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North Korea will not reopen fully post-pandemic

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NORTH KOREA

Pyongyang has yet to announce any formal reopening, and probably never will. However, several indicators show that cross-border personnel movements are finally resuming, including…

New terror groups may increase Egyptian insecurity

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EGYPT

Emergence of new terrorist groups.

Divisions weaken both of Argentina's main coalitions

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ARGENTINA

The ruling Frente de Todos (Front of All, FdT) coalition is increasingly fractured. However, tensions are also rising in opposition coalition Juntos por el Cambio (Together for…

Markets may misjudge risk of Greek exit from euro-area

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GREECE/EURO-AREA

While the scope for widespread contagion across Southern Europe is much more limited this time around because of the new ownership structure of Greece's public debt -- more than…

Albania would benefit by opposition return to politics

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ALBANIA

The outright majority won by the Socialist Party (PS) gives Prime Minister Edi Rama a third consecutive term in office. His run of victories is unprecedented in Albania’s…

Prospects for the Middle East in the fourth quarter

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PROSPECTS Q4 2015

Prospects for the Middle East in the fourth quarter.

Israel’s post-election talks are likely to be messy

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ISRAEL

Israel will hold its second legislative vote of the year on September 17 after coalition talks collapsed following April’s previous election.

Old divisions may return as Mozambique eyes elections

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MOZAMBIQUE

This comes amid growing instability within the mainstream Renamo, and as the ruling Frelimo party shifts its focus towards elections and succession issues as President Felipe…

Syria’s mild economic recovery faces major constraints

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SYRIA

The economy is not showing serious ill effects from the overspill of the conflict in Gaza or recent aid cuts. The government may even have derived some additional financial…

Deepening of EU-UK cooperation will be limited for now

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EU/UK

The announcements are symbolic of improved relations between London and Brussels under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and especially since the signing of the Windsor Framework in…