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After working through the case and assignment questions, students will be able to do the following: • Analyse the aspects of strategic leadership and evaluate effectiveness of the leadership in the case study. • Identify stakeholders in a large-scale project and differentiate between their needs and sources of power. • Establish what behavioural mechanisms can be used by leaders to gain support from stakeholders with seemingly divergent pro-poor and pro-growth development orientations for expansion in an emerging market context. • Generate recommendations to communicate the benefits of expansion plans.

On November 8, 2019, Jack van der Merwe, the chief executive officer of the public rapid rail organisation, Gautrain Management Agency (GMA), was considering how to influence stakeholders to support the pace of the expansion planning phase, without alienating the surrounding communities and balancing the various and sometimes opposing stakeholder interests. The case highlights the background to this dilemma in offering the financial background of the Gauteng province and the evolution of the Gautrain project in the context of an emerging market country characterised by institutions at different development levels and how the unique characteristics of the protagonist could influence stakeholder orientations. The case illustrates how the Gautrain is at the centre of a complex transport conflagration in the South African transport ecosystem. Specific stakeholders and their needs are exposed in the case to enable students to analyse their several levels of influence on the project and proposed expansion. The differences between pro-poor and pro-growth development orientations are also highlighted in this case as input to describe the dilemma Van der Merwe faced in his influencing role in this particular South African context. Students will gain insight into how to manage the tensions between pro-poor and pro-growth orientations.

The case is suitable for a graduate-level course on strategy; organisational behaviour; or leadership. The case is also suitable for a post-graduate-level course on an MBA or MPhil program on strategy and leadership.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

This paper will consider the rationale and effectiveness of SMEsupport policies in the award of public procurement (PP) contracts. One group of economic justifications for SME policies derives from the notion that awarding PP contracts to SMEs (and micro-enterprises) encourages innovation, entrepreneurship and so contributes to job creation, economic growth and can support local and regional developments to the benefit of wider society. The link between SMEs, innovation and economic growth has often been assumed in PP policy-making. While some studies show higher growth rates in small than larger firms, others indicate, to the contrary, that many micro and small enterprises, and particularly informal businesses, are not actively seeking to grow. This paper will assess how effective SME policies may be, and questions the extent to which they are properly evaluated.

The role of banks to efficiently allocate loans to borrowers is fundamental to a thriving economy. In South Africa this is particularly important, given a challenging socio-economic environment with high levels of unemployment and poor levels of economic growth. This paper investigates the short- and long-run determinants of bank lending behaviour for South African banks.

The study design uses time-series data in an autoregressive distributed-lagged model for the period 1994–2016.

The results indicate that factors such as the volume of deposits and the size of a bank are central to explaining bank lending behaviour in the short run, whereas GDP was found to be the only factor explaining lending behaviour in the long run.

The results suggest that the regulatory role of the South African Reserve Bank to ensure financial stability instils trust and certainty in the banking industry and is reflected in the short-run implications to ensure that large banks are stable and depositors avoid a run on a bank's deposits. This is particularly relevant if the long-run trajectory of the economy is one of sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, although the reserve bank is constantly under threat of not having a pro-growth policy agenda, the results support its role to promote confidence and trust through its financial stability policy. Should confidence in the financisal system not be present, it is argued that systemic risk will be exacerbated through the potential failure of large banks and depositors withdrawing their funds through a run on the bank in the short run. Where financial stability is present, market participants will be more inclined to make deposits into the large South African banks, given the trust and certainty within the system.

Successive governments in Pakistan have been pursuing pro‐growth trickle‐down approach with the proclaimed intent that benefits of growth will ultimately reach all. The purpose of this paper is to challenge this intent with a systemic model and suggest alternative policy.

This paper develops a model of system structure of public expenditure and human development (HD) using System Dynamics method. The theoretical and empirical literature provides the conceptual framework to model the paradoxical case of Pakistan.

The simulation results show that high economic growth may not result into better HD indicators. This is in conflict with the trickle‐down approach of economic growth which advocates the economically disadvantaged segments of the society ultimately reap the long‐term benefits of economic growth. On the contrary, high spending on education and health will yield better results even if the economy grows at a relatively lower rate. This paper suggests that the demographic and human development of Pakistan has strong linkages with the public expenditure on HD and weak linkages with the economic growth.

The paper suggests a threshold of 3 percent of sustained economic growth rate as a pre‐requisite to plan for HD in Pakistan. With that in place the government should adhere to high public spending on education and health for HD which is not only an end in itself but is also a must for sustainable development.

This paper assumes exogenous gross domestic product (GDP). The future research requires relaxing of exogenous assumption for GDP to make it endogenous to reflect two‐way feedback relationship of HD and GDP in the long run. Moreover, it will be useful to model the role of HD to promote equitable income distribution in this context where asymmetric income distribution is especially pronounced and may have causal links with HD.

A detailed and robust population cohorts' structure that provides demographic development over time is a unique feature of the model developed for this paper. This is a conscious effort to reflect the causal links of economic growth and HD that involve nonlinearity and delays.