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Brazil's Amazon drought poses environmental challenges

Location:

BRAZIL

Since late September rains have failed in the Amazon region, causing the most severe drought in over a century. Factors including El Nino, climate change and ongoing fires are…

Rising Russian investment will cause structural change

Location:

RUSSIA

The war in Ukraine, Western sanctions and the redirection of external trade away from Europe towards new partners all required a surge in investment. The bulk of new investment…

West African Shiism may grow but remain marginal

Location:

WEST AFRICA

Adherence to Shiism remains relatively small-scale in West Africa, though numbers are difficult to pin down, and al-Zakzaky is not the only prominent Shia leader in the region.

Geothermal energy production will grow in East Africa

Location:

EAST AFRICA

The plan envisages a massive expansion of geothermal energy, through the sinking of 57 new wells across six major steam fields, which would make Kenya the world’s fourth-largest…

Partnerships between AI firms and militaries will grow

Location:

INT

However, recent trends and developments in the AI industry also point towards these same tools’ potential to serve valuable defence purposes, including threat detection, enhanced…

Attacks on Russian refineries will cause oil shortages

Location:

RUSSIA

The rising frequency of drone attacks is raising the risk of oil product shortages within Russia. Already Western sanctions on the supply of spare parts had made the maintenance…

Beijing-ASEAN South China Sea tensions will grow

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CHINA/ASEAN

While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’…

Indonesia oversupply will further tighten world nickel

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Although electric vehicle (EV) battery usage has increased demand for nickel, the increase in Indonesian production to above 2 million tons annually has caused a glut on the…

Peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray region remains fragile

Location:

ETHIOPIA

The meeting comes amid escalating rhetoric over the failure to implement key aspects of the agreement, and warnings of the risk of famine and even the potential for renewed…

Equatorial Guinea succession plans may face challenges

Location:

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

Russian authorities notably expressed interest in investing in Equatorial Guinea’s declining oil sector. Meanwhile, although the ageing Obiang has crushed domestic opposition, he…