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West African piracy reduction may not last

Location:

WEST AFRICA

Piracy rates in the Gulf of Guinea have declined drastically in recent years

Middle East FDI inflows will vary widely

Location:

MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA

Foreign direct investment (FDI) to the Middle East is limited by high barriers and political and security concerns

African states will struggle to increase revenue

Location:

AFRICA

The average tax intake of African countries remains markedly low

The world economic downturn will be mild but prolonged

Location:

INT

Core CPI is easing towards 2% official targets in major nations, but not fast enough for rate cuts to boost 2024 growth

Turkey’s economic ties with the EU remain strong

Location:

TURKEY/EU

Despite the political rift between Turkey and the EU, trade and investment ties are resilient

Wealth shifts across ages will exacerbate inequalities

Location:

INT

Huge wealth transfers from those currently over 60 to the under-60s in the coming decades will have broad implications

AI augmentation and automation will alter job markets

Location:

INT

AI will lift global economic productivity over the coming decades, but also transform labour markets

Turning AI lead into gains will test policymakers

Location:

INT

All major countries are racing to deploy artificial intelligence, but their national strengths vary markedly

Demographics further darken Italy’s economic prospects

Location:

ITALY

An ageing population and weak demand for legal migration pose risks to Italy’s long-term economic outlook

Lower near-term EM risks raise long-run opportunities

Location:

INT

The near-term risk of defaults in emerging market (EM) sovereign debt markets is easing