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This paper focusses on the aftermath of disruptions and the importance of the two largest canals (Suez and Panama), commenting on how during the pandemic the canal fees were lowered. Considering the ongoing efforts to decarbonize shipping, some of the ongoing disruptions will help reach these objectives faster.

Following a literature review of route choice in shipping, and a presentation of significant disruptions in recent years, the author deploys a simplified fuel consumption model and conduct case study analyses to compare different routes environmentally and economically.

The results explain why at times of low fuel prices as in 2020, canals provided discounts to entice ship operators to keep transiting these, instead of opting for longer routes. Considering the ongoing repercussions of the pandemic in supply chains, as well as the potential introduction of market-based measures in shipping, the value of transiting canals will be much higher in the coming years.

The main limitation in this work is that the author used the publicly available information on canal tolls, for the different ship types examined.

The envisioned model is simple, and it can be readily used for any ship and route (port to port) combination available, if ship data are available to researchers.

It is possible that canal tolls will increase, to account for the additional environmental benefits brought to ship operators.

The methodology is simple and transferable, and the author proposes several interesting research questions for follow-up work.

This study provides empirical evidence on the impact of the Panama Canal expansion (PCE) on the economies of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, particularly in light of the emergence of larger container ships such as neo-Panamax and post-Panamax vessels.

This study uses the Bayesian structural time Series (BSTS) model to evaluate the economic effects of the PCE on 21 countries within the LAC region. It utilized the World Bank's gross domestic product (GDP) figures between 2000 and 2019 as the primary variable, alongside the human development index (HDI) (X1), container throughput (TEU) (X2) and unemployment rates (UNEMPL) (X3) covariates. This allowed a precise and robust approach to analyzing time series data while accounting for uncertainties and allowing the inclusion of various components and external factors.

The findings revealed that the PCE has a positive and statistically significant impact on most countries within the Caribbean Transshipment Triangle, ranging from 9.2% in Belize to 46% in Cuba. This suggests that the causal effect of the PCE on regional economies was not confined to any specific type of economy or geographical location within the LAC region. Where the growth rates were statistically insignificant, primarily in some Latin American countries, it coincided with countries that are primarily driven by exports and service industries, where bulk and oil tanker vessels are likely to be the main carriers for exports rather than container vessels.

The practical implications of this research are crucial for various stakeholders in the maritime industry and economic planning. The factors influencing economic growth resulting from investing in maritime activities are vital for decision-makers to create policies that lead to positive outcomes and sustainable development in regions and countries with flourishing maritime industries. The methodology and findings have significant implications for governments, managers, professionals, policy-makers and investors.