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This paper aims to investigate whether the institution attended or type of course taken in further education, by students who are classified as low achievers at age 16, influences the probability of their subsequent educational success.

To evaluate the probability of educational success of this subsample of young people, a probit model with sample selection is estimated, using the Youth Cohort Survey data for England and Wales and covering the period 1982 to 2004.

The results suggest that the best route to educational success for “lower achievers” is through further education colleges. There are further significant gains in the probability of educational success for young men who take vocational courses at the FE college. Furthermore, the students taking this route into post‐compulsory education are subsequently most likely to enter higher education; a result relevant to policy, since the aim of the Education Act (2008) is to increase the educational attainment of all young people up to the age of 18.

The paper provides an analysis of the educational decisions and outcomes of young people who were considered of low ability at age 16.

Aims to consider whether the expansion of post‐compulsory education has led to greater benefits for members of one socio‐economic group than another.

Uses a multinomial logit model of the choice of first destination, using the Youth Cohort Survey data for England and Wales, from 1985 to 1992.

Whilst prior attainment has the strongest influence on selecting academic further education, participation rates into post‐compulsory education have also increased for young people of average ability. Interaction effects clearly show that for even the most able, the socio‐economic status of parents is an important influence on the choice of destination. The greatest benefit from the increased provision of post‐compulsory education after conditioning for ability has been to young people from high socio‐economic groups.

Provides analysis, following investigation, of the main transmission mechanisms that determine choice at age 16.