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After the global financial crisis of 2008, Allied Irish Banks (AIB) was rescued by the Irish government. During 2013 and 2014, the tiny fraction of shares remaining with the public appeared to be vastly overvalued in the Irish stock market. The American Depository Receipts (ADRs) of AIB appeared to be overvalued even relative to the inflated Irish price. The case illustrates the possibility of pervasive mispricing in an illiquid market and the difficulty of valuing companies with large embedded option values.

Industry analysis and market attractiveness: Understand how to analyse an industry, using the dairy sector in Uganda as an example and what makes a market attractive for incumbents or future entrants. Value disciplines: Understand and apply the different value disciplines companies can choose from to achieve market-leading positions. Business integration: Understand some of the key benefits of vertical integration and when it may or may not make sense to integrate. Doing business in Africa: Understand the specific generic challenges of doing business in Africa, particularly in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Generalisability of frameworks: Realise that the same frameworks that are used to analyse large firms and mature markets can be applied to smaller firms in less developed markets.

The case is set in the early months of 2020, as Bernd Schanzenbächer, founder and managing partner of EBG Capital (a Swiss investment firm that manages a multimillion global portfolio of agricultural investments), and his team are deciding whether to invest in a dairy farm in Uganda. The opportunity looks quite interesting and the EBG Capital team believes there is a good fit between the farm owners’ needs, its management team’s objectives and EBG Capital’s strengths and interests. However, the dairy market in Uganda faces many challenges and, while the market-demand fundamentals appear promising, the team wonders if it is the right time to invest. The issue for EBG Capital is to understand what makes the Ugandan dairy industry so challenging and to determine how to fix or mitigate some of the industry’s most pressing problems – given that it will be the firm’s first investment in the country – as well as for deciding where it makes sense to play in the broad value chain (i.e. only in milk production or also in milk processing).

Masters in Business Administration and Executive Education courses.

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CSS 11: Strategy.