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This paper aims to examine the impact of tax avoidance on the cost of debt. It also investigates the effect of tax risk on the relationship between tax avoidance and the cost of debt.

Two hypotheses are tested on a sample of nonfinancial French firms listed in the société des Bources Françaises 120 index from 2010 to 2022 using the feasible generalized least squares. To ensure the robustness of the findings, the authors changed the measures of tax avoidance and tax risk and used instrumental variable regression to effectively address concerns related to endogeneity. Additional analysis is conducted to examine if the relationship between tax avoidance and the cost of debt varies based on the magnitude of tax risk.

The authors found that tax avoidance negatively affects the cost of debt. However, when tax avoidance is associated with a high risk, it impacts positively the cost of debt.

This study’s findings are relevant to firms, creditors and French lawmakers. Creditors must make their decision to grant credit based simultaneously on proxies of tax avoidance and tax risk. Managers must effectively manage tax risks to protect their financial decisions, urging French policymakers to implement new regulations on corporate tax risk management.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to have investigated the joint impact of tax avoidance and tax risk on the cost of debt in the French context.

This paper aims to study the impact of tax avoidance on corporate risk. It also examines the moderating impact of tax risk on the relationship between tax avoidance and firm risk.

Based on available information in the DATASTREAM database about a sample of French firms listed in the CAC 40 from 2010 to 2022, the study uses the feasible generalized least squares method to investigate the impact of tax avoidance on firm risk and the moderating impact of tax risk. To check the robustness of our results, the authors changed the measurement of variables to identify potential biases and they significantly mitigated the endogeneity concerns using instrumental variable regression. Additional estimations were performed, first by using book-tax differences (BTD) and its components, i.e. temporary and permanent, and second by retesting hypotheses of years before the outbreak of the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The results show that tax avoidance negatively affects the firm risk while tax risk has a positive effect on firm risk. More importantly, tax risk moderates the negative impact of tax avoidance on the firm risk. When tax avoidance is associated with a high level of tax risk, it leads to a high firm risk. Accordingly, tax avoidance should be considered in conjunction with tax risk when studying the effect put on the firm risk. Further analyses indicate that tax risk moderates the negative relationship between permanent BTD and firm risk.

The major limitation of this study is that it focuses only on French-listed firms, which make it difficult to generalize the results. Furthermore, the authors did not introduce governance variables into our models. An effective governance system and transparent information can reduce some of the perverse effects of risky tax avoidance by reducing the tax avoidance costs. The obtained results are of great interest to researchers who need to include the tax risk concept in their examination of the tax avoidance impacts.

The results are useful for investors wishing to make sound decisions regarding risky tax avoidance practices. Furthermore, the results may signal the need for French policymakers to make more efforts to reduce risky tax avoidance activities that are harmful to investors. They must enforce the existence and the reporting of a tax risk management strategy by firms.

This study contributes to the growing body of literature on the tax avoidance effects with a special focus on firm risk. This study provides the first French evidence of the role of tax risk in the relationship between tax avoidance and firm risk.