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South Africa had formally introduced a policy of inflation targeting (IT) in February 2000. By December 2001, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank, after reading the latest statistics, was concerned with the disappointing economic data. Economic activity had slowed drastically, to the point that the country appeared to be heading for a recession. The gloomy statistics forced the governor to consider whether the country had pursued the right policy. Persistently high unemployment, one legacy of the apartheid era, meant that South Africa did not have the luxury of waiting for new policies to bear fruit. With the inflation forecast to exceed the mandated target, the governor would have to tighten monetary policy, which would further restrict investment. Was it is time for South Africa to change course?

This public-sourced case describes the latest restructuring efforts by Deutsche Bank (DB) and gives a short history of prior restructuring efforts from the decade before. In July 2019, Christian Sewing, the new CEO of DB, announced a series of measures that included, among others, the elimination of global equity trading, the layoff of 18,000 employees, the creation of a “bad bank” to transfer noncore assets, and the suspension of dividends until 2022. The case describes key decisions a bank CEO makes when a bank needs to change course to return to profitability and growth. The case offers an opportunity to debate these key decisions, as well as discuss some of the prior ones during earlier restructuring efforts, and put the students in the CEO's shoes: What would you do and why? The case also describes key banking performance metrics (e.g., ROE, ROA) and other critical variables such as those reflecting capital health (Tier 1 ratio), as well as gives an overview of the bank business model and factors impacting bank profitability and value.

The case evolves around the Powerball lottery and the rule changes implemented in 2015, which, among other things, changed the chances of winning the jackpot from 1 in 175 million to 1 in 292 million. What is the impact of such rules on lottery revenues? The expected value rule is unable to explain why people play in the first place and fails to give the appropriate weight to the factors that explain the attractiveness of a lottery. This case is ideal to introduce the notion of decision weights as put forward by Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory. By calculating decision weights, we obtain a reasonable prediction for the willingness to pay for the lottery as a function of different jackpot amounts. Using past data, we can correlate lottery revenues with predicted willingness to pay for a ticket. Quantitative-inclined audiences can then develop a simulation model of how likely it is that the jackpot grows, which, coupled with the prediction of revenues as a function of the jackpot, would give the evolution of the revenues under the new rule. The accompanying spreadsheet provides data for students to work out various scenarios to narrow objectives and maximize revenue from Powerball tickets.