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Article
Publication date: 23 November 2022

Ibrahim Karatas and Abdulkadir Budak

The study is aimed to compare the prediction success of basic machine learning and ensemble machine learning models and accordingly create novel prediction models by combining…

Abstract

Purpose

The study is aimed to compare the prediction success of basic machine learning and ensemble machine learning models and accordingly create novel prediction models by combining machine learning models to increase the prediction success in construction labor productivity prediction models.

Design/methodology/approach

Categorical and numerical data used in prediction models in many studies in the literature for the prediction of construction labor productivity were made ready for analysis by preprocessing. The Python programming language was used to develop machine learning models. As a result of many variation trials, the models were combined and the proposed novel voting and stacking meta-ensemble machine learning models were constituted. Finally, the models were compared to Target and Taylor diagram.

Findings

Meta-ensemble models have been developed for labor productivity prediction by combining machine learning models. Voting ensemble by combining et, gbm, xgboost, lightgbm, catboost and mlp models and stacking ensemble by combining et, gbm, xgboost, catboost and mlp models were created and finally the Et model as meta-learner was selected. Considering the prediction success, it has been determined that the voting and stacking meta-ensemble algorithms have higher prediction success than other machine learning algorithms. Model evaluation metrics, namely MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2, were selected to measure the prediction success. For the voting meta-ensemble algorithm, the values of the model evaluation metrics MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2 are 0.0499, 0.0045, 0.0671 and 0.7886, respectively. For the stacking meta-ensemble algorithm, the values of the model evaluation metrics MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2 are 0.0469, 0.0043, 0.0658 and 0.7967, respectively.

Research limitations/implications

The study shows the comparison between machine learning algorithms and created novel meta-ensemble machine learning algorithms to predict the labor productivity of construction formwork activity. The practitioners and project planners can use this model as reliable and accurate tool for predicting the labor productivity of construction formwork activity prior to construction planning.

Originality/value

The study provides insight into the application of ensemble machine learning algorithms in predicting construction labor productivity. Additionally, novel meta-ensemble algorithms have been used and proposed. Therefore, it is hoped that predicting the labor productivity of construction formwork activity with high accuracy will make a great contribution to construction project management.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 31 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2009

Grzegorz Drałus and Jerzy Świątek

The purpose of this paper is to present research in the area of the modeling of complex systems using feed‐forward neural network.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present research in the area of the modeling of complex systems using feed‐forward neural network.

Design/methodology/approach

Applications of multilayer neural networks with supervisor learning on the own simulator program wrote in Borland® Pascal Language. Series‐parallel identification method is applied. Tapped delay lines (TDL) in static neural networks for modeling of dynamic plants are used. Gradient and heuristic learning algorithms are applied. Three kinds of calibration of learning and testing data are used.

Findings

This paper illustrates that feed‐forward multilayer neural networks can model complex systems. Feed‐forward multilayer neural networks with TDL can be used to build global dynamic models of complex systems. It is possible to compare the quality both models.

Research limitations/implications

The learning and testing data from real systems to tune neuronal models require use of calibrating these data to range 0‐1.

Practical implications

The models quality depends on kind of calibration learning data from real system and depends on kind of learning algorithms.

Originality/value

The method and the learning algorithms discussed in the paper can be used to create global models of complex systems. The multilayer neural network with TDL can be used to model complex dynamic systems with low dynamics.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 38 no. 7/8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2021

Rajshree Varma, Yugandhara Verma, Priya Vijayvargiya and Prathamesh P. Churi

The rapid advancement of technology in online communication and fingertip access to the Internet has resulted in the expedited dissemination of fake news to engage a global…

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Abstract

Purpose

The rapid advancement of technology in online communication and fingertip access to the Internet has resulted in the expedited dissemination of fake news to engage a global audience at a low cost by news channels, freelance reporters and websites. Amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, individuals are inflicted with these false and potentially harmful claims and stories, which may harm the vaccination process. Psychological studies reveal that the human ability to detect deception is only slightly better than chance; therefore, there is a growing need for serious consideration for developing automated strategies to combat fake news that traverses these platforms at an alarming rate. This paper systematically reviews the existing fake news detection technologies by exploring various machine learning and deep learning techniques pre- and post-pandemic, which has never been done before to the best of the authors’ knowledge.

Design/methodology/approach

The detailed literature review on fake news detection is divided into three major parts. The authors searched papers no later than 2017 on fake news detection approaches on deep learning and machine learning. The papers were initially searched through the Google scholar platform, and they have been scrutinized for quality. The authors kept “Scopus” and “Web of Science” as quality indexing parameters. All research gaps and available databases, data pre-processing, feature extraction techniques and evaluation methods for current fake news detection technologies have been explored, illustrating them using tables, charts and trees.

Findings

The paper is dissected into two approaches, namely machine learning and deep learning, to present a better understanding and a clear objective. Next, the authors present a viewpoint on which approach is better and future research trends, issues and challenges for researchers, given the relevance and urgency of a detailed and thorough analysis of existing models. This paper also delves into fake new detection during COVID-19, and it can be inferred that research and modeling are shifting toward the use of ensemble approaches.

Originality/value

The study also identifies several novel automated web-based approaches used by researchers to assess the validity of pandemic news that have proven to be successful, although currently reported accuracy has not yet reached consistent levels in the real world.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 July 2023

Mu Shengdong, Liu Yunjie and Gu Jijian

By introducing Stacking algorithm to solve the underfitting problem caused by insufficient data in traditional machine learning, this paper provides a new solution to the cold…

Abstract

Purpose

By introducing Stacking algorithm to solve the underfitting problem caused by insufficient data in traditional machine learning, this paper provides a new solution to the cold start problem of entrepreneurial borrowing risk control.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors introduce semi-supervised learning and integrated learning into the field of migration learning, and innovatively propose the Stacking model migration learning, which can independently train models on entrepreneurial borrowing credit data, and then use the migration strategy itself as the learning object, and use the Stacking algorithm to combine the prediction results of the source domain model and the target domain model.

Findings

The effectiveness of the two migration learning models is evaluated with real data from an entrepreneurial borrowing. The algorithmic performance of the Stacking-based model migration learning is further improved compared to the benchmark model without migration learning techniques, with the model area under curve value rising to 0.8. Comparing the two migration learning models reveals that the model-based migration learning approach performs better. The reason for this is that the sample-based migration learning approach only eliminates the noisy samples that are relatively less similar to the entrepreneurial borrowing data. However, the calculation of similarity and the weighing of similarity are subjective, and there is no unified judgment standard and operation method, so there is no guarantee that the retained traditional credit samples have the same sample distribution and feature structure as the entrepreneurial borrowing data.

Practical implications

From a practical standpoint, on the one hand, it provides a new solution to the cold start problem of entrepreneurial borrowing risk control. The small number of labeled high-quality samples cannot support the learning and deployment of big data risk control models, which is the cold start problem of the entrepreneurial borrowing risk control system. By extending the training sample set with auxiliary domain data through suitable migration learning methods, the prediction performance of the model can be improved to a certain extent and more generalized laws can be learned.

Originality/value

This paper introduces the thought method of migration learning to the entrepreneurial borrowing scenario, provides a new solution to the cold start problem of the entrepreneurial borrowing risk control system and verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the migration learning method applied in the risk control field through empirical data.

Details

Management Decision, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2021

Meseret Getnet Meharie, Wubshet Jekale Mengesha, Zachary Abiero Gariy and Raphael N.N. Mutuku

The purpose of this study to apply stacking ensemble machine learning algorithm for predicting the cost of highway construction projects.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study to apply stacking ensemble machine learning algorithm for predicting the cost of highway construction projects.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed stacking ensemble model was developed by combining three distinct base predictive models automatically and optimally: linear regression, support vector machine and artificial neural network models using gradient boosting algorithm as meta-regressor.

Findings

The findings reveal that the proposed model predicted the final project cost with a very small prediction error value. This implies that the difference between predicted and actual cost was quite small. A comparison of the results of the models revealed that in all performance metrics, the stacking ensemble model outperforms the sole ones. The stacking ensemble cost model produces 86.8, 87.8 and 5.6 percent more accurate results than linear regression, vector machine support, and neural network models, respectively, based on the root mean square error values.

Research limitations/implications

The study shows how stacking ensemble machine learning algorithm applies to predict the cost of construction projects. The estimators or practitioners can use the new model as an effectual and reliable tool for predicting the cost of Ethiopian highway construction projects at the preliminary stage.

Originality/value

The study provides insight into the machine learning algorithm application in forecasting the cost of future highway construction projects in Ethiopia.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 29 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 January 2022

Anil Kumar Maddali and Habibulla Khan

Currently, the design, technological features of voices, and their analysis of various applications are being simulated with the requirement to communicate at a greater distance…

Abstract

Purpose

Currently, the design, technological features of voices, and their analysis of various applications are being simulated with the requirement to communicate at a greater distance or more discreetly. The purpose of this study is to explore how voices and their analyses are used in modern literature to generate a variety of solutions, of which only a few successful models exist.

Design/methodology

The mel-frequency cepstral coefficient (MFCC), average magnitude difference function, cepstrum analysis and other voice characteristics are effectively modeled and implemented using mathematical modeling with variable weights parametric for each algorithm, which can be used with or without noises. Improvising the design characteristics and their weights with different supervised algorithms that regulate the design model simulation.

Findings

Different data models have been influenced by the parametric range and solution analysis in different space parameters, such as frequency or time model, with features such as without, with and after noise reduction. The frequency response of the current design can be analyzed through the Windowing techniques.

Original value

A new model and its implementation scenario with pervasive computational algorithms’ (PCA) (such as the hybrid PCA with AdaBoost (HPCA), PCA with bag of features and improved PCA with bag of features) relating the different features such as MFCC, power spectrum, pitch, Window techniques, etc. are calculated using the HPCA. The features are accumulated on the matrix formulations and govern the design feature comparison and its feature classification for improved performance parameters, as mentioned in the results.

Details

International Journal of Pervasive Computing and Communications, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1742-7371

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 September 2022

Hossein Sohrabi and Esmatullah Noorzai

The present study aims to develop a risk-supported case-based reasoning (RS-CBR) approach for water-related projects by incorporating various uncertainties and risks in the…

Abstract

Purpose

The present study aims to develop a risk-supported case-based reasoning (RS-CBR) approach for water-related projects by incorporating various uncertainties and risks in the revision step.

Design/methodology/approach

The cases were extracted by studying 68 water-related projects. This research employs earned value management (EVM) factors to consider time and cost features and economic, natural, technical, and project risks to account for uncertainties and supervised learning models to estimate cost overrun. Time-series algorithms were also used to predict construction cost indexes (CCI) and model improvements in future forecasts. Outliers were deleted by the pre-processing process. Next, datasets were split into testing and training sets, and algorithms were implemented. The accuracy of different models was measured with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the normalized root mean square error (NRSME) criteria.

Findings

The findings show an improvement in the accuracy of predictions using datasets that consider uncertainties, and ensemble algorithms such as Random Forest and AdaBoost had higher accuracy. Also, among the single algorithms, the support vector regressor (SVR) with the sigmoid kernel outperformed the others.

Originality/value

This research is the first attempt to develop a case-based reasoning model based on various risks and uncertainties. The developed model has provided an approving overlap with machine learning models to predict cost overruns. The model has been implemented in collected water-related projects and results have been reported.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2023

Yao Tong and Zehui Zhan

The purpose of this study is to set up an evaluation model to predict massive open online courses (MOOC) learning performance by analyzing MOOC learners’ online learning

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to set up an evaluation model to predict massive open online courses (MOOC) learning performance by analyzing MOOC learners’ online learning behaviors, and comparing three algorithms – multiple linear regression (MLR), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and classification and regression tree (CART).

Design/methodology/approach

Through literature review and analysis of data correlation in the original database, a framework of online learning behavior indicators containing 26 behaviors was constructed. The degree of correlation with the final learning performance was analyzed based on learners’ system interaction behavior, resource interaction behavior, social interaction behavior and independent learning behavior. A total of 12 behaviors highly correlated to learning performance were extracted as major indicators, and the MLR method, MLP method and CART method were used as typical algorithms to evaluate learners’ MOOC learning performance.

Findings

The behavioral indicator framework constructed in this study can effectively analyze learners’ learning, and the evaluation model constructed using the MLP method (89.91%) and CART method (90.29%) can better achieve the prediction of MOOC learners’ learning performance than using MLR method (83.64%).

Originality/value

This study explores the patterns and characteristics among different learning behaviors and constructs an effective prediction model for MOOC learners’ learning performance, which can help teachers understand learners’ learning status, locate learners with learning difficulties promptly and provide targeted instructional interventions at the right time to improve teaching quality.

Details

Interactive Technology and Smart Education, vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-5659

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2023

Marko Kureljusic and Jonas Metz

The accurate prediction of incoming cash flows enables more effective cash management and allows firms to shape firms' planning based on forward-looking information. Although most…

Abstract

Purpose

The accurate prediction of incoming cash flows enables more effective cash management and allows firms to shape firms' planning based on forward-looking information. Although most firms are aware of the benefits of these forecasts, many still have difficulties identifying and implementing an appropriate prediction model. With the rise of machine learning algorithms, numerous new forecasting techniques have emerged. These new forecasting techniques are theoretically applicable for predicting customer payment behavior but have not yet been adequately investigated. This study aims to close this research gap by examining which machine learning algorithm is the most appropriate for predicting customer payment dates.

Design/methodology/approach

By using various machine learning algorithms, the authors evaluate whether customer payment behavior patterns can be identified and predicted. The study is based on real-world transaction data from a DAX-40 firm with over 1,000,000 invoices in the dataset, with the data covering the period 2017–2019.

Findings

The authors' results show that neural networks in particular are suitable for predicting customers' payment dates. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that contextual and logical prediction models can provide more accurate forecasts than conventional baseline models, such as linear and multivariate regression.

Research limitations/implications

Future cash flow forecasting studies should incorporate naïve prediction models, as the authors demonstrate that these models can compete with conventional baseline models used in existing machine learning research. However, the authors expect that with more in-depth information about the customer (creditworthiness, accounting structure) the results can be even further improved.

Practical implications

The knowledge of customers' future payment dates enables firms to change their perspective and move from reactive to proactive cash management. This shift leads to a more targeted dunning process.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, no study has yet been conducted that interprets the prediction of incoming payments as a daily rolling forecast by comparing naïve forecasts with forecasts based on machine learning and deep learning models.

Details

Journal of Applied Accounting Research, vol. 24 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0967-5426

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 13 March 2023

Abstract

Details

Artificial Intelligence in Marketing
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80262-875-3

1 – 10 of over 22000