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Nigeria will not divert FDI from South Africa

Location:

AF

Divergent strengths and weakness will determine how Africa's largest economies emerge from the recent growth wobble

The Saudi-Israeli normalisation puzzle will get harder

Location:

SAUDI ARABIA/ISRAEL

The Gaza war hikes the costs of Saudi talks with Israel, as Israeli anti-Palestinian sentiments prohibit compromises

Ethiopia’s renewed conflict exposes wider fragilities

Location:

ETHIOPIA

As renewed fighting in Tigray shatters hopes for a new peace process, the resurgence of other conflicts is also a risk

German exports may remain strong despite Brexit, Trump

Location:

GERMANY

Germany competes primarily on quality, but the weak euro has also improved its price competitiveness

Geography limits China's options for Taiwan invasion

Location:

CHINA

It is often assumed that China could attack Taiwan at a time and place of its choosing; this is by no means the case

Zimbabwe faces worsening interlocked crises

Location:

ZIMBABWE

Zimbabweans face acute economic and social pressures as the impact of drought and rising living costs take hold

Gulf states' food imports will rise

Location:

GULF STATES

Water constraints mean that Gulf countries have no option but to buy in food

Sudan faces an unmitigated humanitarian crisis

Location:

SUDAN

Extreme levels of hunger and displacement are not being met with commensurate volumes of humanitarian aid

African LGBT campaigners will make marginal gains

Location:

AFRICA

A high-profile judgement does not portend wide-ranging continental reform

Latin America tax evasion will strain state funds

Location:

LATIN AMERICA

VAT evasion alone amounted to some 2.4% of Latin America’s GDP in 2015 -- roughly the region’s estimated growth for 2017