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This study aims to develop and test a multivariable psychosocial prediction model of subjective well-being in Ukrainian adults (n = 1,248) 1.5 years after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The research design followed the “Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis” checklist. The online survey combined a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics and specifics of living in wartime, as well as validated self-reported inventories: The Modified BBC Subjective Well-being Scale, Acceptance and Action Questionnaire – Version 2 and Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale-10.

The initially developed model was tested through regression analysis, which revealed nine variables as predictors of the subjective well-being scores within the sample, explaining 49.3% of its variance. Among them, the strongest were living with a friend and receiving mental health care systematically. They were almost twice as influential as forced displacement abroad and trauma exposure, which predicted lower well-being, and living with a spouse, which forecasted higher well-being scores. Two resilience subscales – adjustment and restoring and resistance – as predictors of better well-being and perceived unsuccess in life and age as predictors of lower well-being were relatively weaker but statistically significant.

The obtained results support the previous evidence on the essential role of accessible mental health services and social support in times of war, as well as the deteriorative effect of trauma exposure and forcible taking refuge on subjective well-being.