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Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to assess the role of the wealth-to-income ratio in forecasting housing risk premium.

Methodology/approach – To investigate this issue, the chapter uses the residuals of the trend relationship among asset wealth and labor income to predict future real housing returns. It shows that deviations of asset wealth from its cointegrating relationship with labor income, wy, track time-variation in expected housing returns.

Findings – Using data for a set of industrialized countries, this chapter finds that if agents are hit by a shock that generates a fall in the wealth-to-income ratio, they will demand (i) a higher housing risk premium when housing assets are complements of financial assets and (ii) a lower housing risk premium when housing assets are substitutes of financial assets.

Originality/value of chapter – The findings of this chapter are novel in the field of alternative finance and, in particular, durable (housing) finance. Indeed, they build on a representative agent's theoretical model to infer about the degree of substitution or complementarity between financial and housing assets, which, in turn, can be useful at developing investment strategies for hedging against the risk of unfavorable housing fluctuations. Additionally, they open a new research avenue for understanding the determinants of housing risk premium by linking the dynamics of asset wealth and labor income with the behavior of future housing returns.

Since the recent global financial crisis began in 2008–2009, there has been strong decline in financial markets and investment, huge losses and bankruptcies that have led to a major financial downturn, and a significant economic recession for most developed and emerging economies. Some economists and financial analysts now consider this crisis to be more harmful in some ways than the Great Depression of 1929. Those economists and analysts point to a number of technical issues and limitations associated with the present financial systems, monetary institution rules, accounting and rating formulas, and investment strategies and choices. To try to overcome the financial downturn and, at the same time, to protect the banking systems and financial markets and to reassure investors, central banks have attempted various solutions, governments have introduced new plans (e.g., the Paulson plan), policymakers have included these topic in their political programs, and several conferences and political summits have been organized to discuss the issues. There have been two prevailing lines of thought. According to one line of thought, the extreme risk associated with speculation in sophisticated financial products, the nature of the credit-banking economic system, the gap between real and financial economies, and the strategic errors of monetary institutions constitute the main sources of the financial crisis.¹ On the other hand, it is now argued that this trend needs to be altered. According to that view, monetary institutions, banking and trading systems, rating agencies, and asset pricing modeling need to be reassessed (Barnett, 2012).

This study seeks to analyse if the adjustment towards the target short-term debt ratio of small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) is related to financial distress risk.

Data obtained for a sample of Portuguese manufacturing SMEs from 2010 to 2017 were analysed using the system-generalised method of moments (GMM-sys). Using the modified Z-Altman score, the authors classify SMEs according to their exposure to financial distress risk.

Manufacturing SMEs exposed to a high risk of financial distress rebalance their short-term debt ratio quicker. However, regardless of the financial distress risk level, SMEs distant from the target short-term debt ratio adjust more slowly, suggesting that transaction costs are greater than financial distress costs.

Policymakers should promote the access to external sources of finance with low transaction costs for SMEs, exposed to low levels of financial distress risk, to rebalance their short-term debt ratios quicker. Distressed SMEs far from their target short-term debt ratios, but with capacity to rebalance, need government programmes to access finance with low transaction costs to rebalance their short-term debt ratios.

This paper contributes to deepening our understanding of how SMEs, facing financial risk, rebalance their short-term debt ratios. SMEs, facing high financial distress risk, adjust towards their target short-term debt ratios more rapidly. However, SMEs, distant from the target short-term debt ratio face higher transaction costs than financial distress costs. These firms adjust towards their target short-term debt ratios more slowly, which may aggravate the refinancing risk and, ultimately, announce bankruptcy.

For Colombia, cocaine is a product that is sold for profit in the United States. Mainstream political economy, let alone the other social sciences, has little to say about the process of extraction of surplus value in the production and distribution of cocaine, in other words, how cocaine is exploited for profit. The paper argues that the conventional framework, which locates profits generated from the cocaine trade in an economic model of crime shields a much deeper reality than simply ‘money laundering’ as a ‘legal problem.’ The central argument is that the cocaine trade in general, and the cocaine economy in particular, are a vital aspect of U.S. imperialism in the Colombian economic system. The paper tackles a critical problem: the place of cocaine in the re-colonization of Colombia – defined as ‘narcocolonialism’ – and the implications of the cocaine trade generally for U.S. imperialism in this context. The paper evaluates selected literature on the Colombian cocaine trade and offers an alternative framework underpinned by a political economy analysis drawn from Marx and Lenin showing that cocaine functions as an ‘imperial commodity’ – a commodity for which there exists a lucrative market and profit-making opportunity. It is also a means of capital accumulation by what could be termed, Colombia's comprador ‘narcobourgeoisie;’ dependent on U.S. imperialism. It is hoped that by analyzing cocaine with a Marxist interpretation and political economy approach, then future developments in understanding drugs in Colombia's complex political economy may be anticipated.