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Purpose – The purpose of this study is to develop a numerical framework to predict the time-dependent probability of failure of a bridge subjected to multiple vehicle impacts. Specially, this study focuses on investigating the inter-relationship between changes in life-cycle parameters (e.g., damage size caused by vehicle impact, loss of initial structural capacity, and threshold intervention) and bridges probability of failure.

Design/Methodology/Approach – The numerical procedure using MATLAB program is developed to compute the probability failure of a bridge. First, the importance and characteristics of life-cycle analysis is described. Then, model for damage accumulation and life cycle as a result of heavy vehicle impacts is discussed. Finally, the probability of failure of a bridge subjected to vehicle impacts as a result of change in life-cycle parameters is presented.

Findings – The results of study show that damage size caused by both vehicle impacts and loss of initial structural capacity have a great impact on the long-term safety of bridges. In addition, the probability of failure of a bridge under different threshold limits indicates that the structural intervention (e.g., repair or maintenance) should be undertaken to extend the service life of a bridge.

Research Limitations/Implications – The damage sizes caused by heavy vehicle impacts are based on simple assumptions. It is suggested that there would be a further study to estimate the magnitude of bridge damage as a result of vehicle impact using the full-scale impact test or computational simulation.

Practical Implications – This will allow much better predictions for residual life of bridges which could potentially be used to support decisions on health and maintenance of bridges.

Originality/Value – The life-cycle performance for assessing the time-dependent probability of failure of bridges subjected to multiple vehicle impact has not been fully discussed so far.

In this study, a finite element model of a box-girder bridge along with the railway sub-track system is developed to predict the static behavior due to different combinations of the Indian railway system and free vibration responses resulting in different natural frequencies and their corresponding mode shapes.

The modeling and evaluation of the bridge and sub-track system were performed using non-closed form finite element method (FEM)-based ANSYS software.

From the analysis, the worst possible cases of deformation and stress due to different static load combinations were determined in the static analysis, while different natural frequencies were determined in the free vibrational analysis that can be used for further analysis because of the dynamic effect of the train vehicle.

The scope of the current investigation is confined to the structure's static and free vibration analysis. However, this study will help the designers obtain relevant information for further analysis of the dynamic behavior of the bridge model.

In static analysis, the maximum deformation of the bridge deck was found to be 10.70E-03m due to load combination 5, whereas the maximum natural frequency for free vibration analysis is found to be 4.7626 Hz.