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The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the global economy, disrupting supply chains, causing job losses and altering consumer demand. In Malaysia, the real estate sector has been notably affected, with increased property impairments and overhang due to unprecedented uncertainty. Understanding these effects is crucial for policymakers and investors to prevent real estate and banking crises. This study aims to analyse the relationships between macroeconomic factors during the pandemic on property impairments and overhang, providing insights for maintaining macroeconomic stability. The findings will inform strategies for mitigating economic shocks, identifying opportunities, and guiding real estate policies in Malaysia and potentially globally.

This research article uses a time series ARDL regression analysis to examine pivotal macroeconomic factors including income, housing process, interest rates and unemployment on property loan impairments and property supply overhang in Malaysia. ARDL is effective to measure and analyse time series data, especially to understand the lagged impacts of macroeconomic factors. This can be seen by various economists in analysing macroeconomic factors affecting non-performing loans or the real estate finance using regression analyses both in Malaysia and other regions. The observations are gathered before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, spanning a five-year period with monthly frequency from 2018 to 2022.

The study emphasizes the critical importance of effectively managing unemployment and implementing policy interventions, such as moratoriums, to stabilize the economy and reduce the risk of loan impairments during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, this study highlights a significant inverse relationship between income per capita and loan impairments, underscoring the necessity for policies that promote economic growth and income equality. Initiatives targeting job creation, education and skills development can elevate income levels, thereby decreasing loan impairments. Lower lending interest rates during the pandemic also help mitigate the risk of loan impairments by facilitating borrowing, stimulating economic activity and enhancing financial well-being. Furthermore, the study suggests that while lower interest rates incentivize property developers and investors, understanding the intricate interaction between housing prices and supply is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders to effectively manage the housing market and ensure adequate housing supply, especially during crises.

This paper provides insight for policymakers, regulators, investors and property consultants into the dynamic effects of key macroeconomic factors amidst a global recession in how they impact the real estate market with regards specifically to all types of property loan impairments and property supply overhang. The observations are limited to the COVID-19 period, spanning five years with monthly data from 2018 to 2022. This understanding can facilitate the development of targeted strategic monetary policies and investment decisions in case of future recessions.

Policymakers should prioritize initiatives such as moratoriums and job creation programs to mitigate economic downturns. Additionally, financial institutions need to adjust lending practices in response to lower interest rates, while stakeholders in the housing market must understand the complex dynamics between housing prices and supply to ensure a balanced market. Overall, addressing underlying economic factors and implementing targeted policies are essential for building resilience and promoting sustainable economic growth amidst challenging circumstances.

Initiatives aimed at fostering income equality, creating employment opportunities and ensuring housing accessibility contribute to greater social cohesion and well-being. By promoting financial inclusion and building resilience to crises, societies can mitigate the adverse social impacts of economic challenges such as unemployment and housing affordability. Overall, addressing socioeconomic disparities and promoting inclusive growth are essential for fostering a more equitable and resilient society.

The originality and uniqueness of this study lie in its comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on loan impairments and housing supply. While previous studies have focused on the pandemic’s effects on specific segments of the real estate market or property prices, this study provides a broad overview of its impact on property loan impairments and housing supply overhang. Finally, this study highlights the social and practical implications. Overall, this study offers a distinctive analysis of COVID-19’s impact on the real estate market and its implications for policymakers, real estate professionals and investors.

The study on how macroeconomic factors affect non-performing loans (NPLs) have not been focussed on property loans, which had been amongst the largest contributor of NPLs in many countries. At the same time, whilst there are many studies that focusses on NPLs during the recession and financial crises, not many studies focus on how macroeconomic factors affect property NPLs in a recovering economic environment. The purpose of this study seeks to fill the gap by analysing the relationships between gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, income, foreign direct investments (FDI), housing prices and taxes on property NPLs with Malaysia as a case study in which NPLs rose for the first time after declining for almost a decade since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This study aims to understand the dynamics and direction of causation in relationships.

The author uses the auto regressive distribution lag analysis between the independent variables of GDP, interest rates, housing prices, service taxes, percapita income and FDI affecting the dependent variable of property NPLs from 2009 to 2017, during a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time in almost a decade of decline.

This study found that interest rates, housing prices, income, GDP and service taxes were found to possess long cause effects and long run elasticity with NPLs. At the same time, interest rates were found to implicate property NPLs significantly in longer periods, followed by GDP, housing prices, service taxes and income. FDIs were found to be insignificantly negative in implicating property NPLs in the long run.

This paper allows policymakers to understand the dynamic implications of crucial macroeconomic factors in affecting NPLs so that appropriate strategic monetary policies could be formulated towards addressing them. More focus shall be given to addressing the long term implications of these factors on NPLs.

Appropriate strategic monetary policy making can be channelled towards addressing these factors via understanding the short and long term implications of macroeconomic variables on property NPLs. Policymakers can take note of the long cause effects and long run elasticity of average interest rates, housing prices, income levels, GDP and service taxes with property NPLs so that appropriate long term policies can be addressed to control the rise of property NPLs in the country. At the same time, priority should be given towards strengthening of the GDP of the country due to its strongest impact in long term effects with reduction of NPLs in the country.

The insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing stability in the real estate finance system need to account for the various macroeconomic variables found in this study.

The paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, this study involves focussing on a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time after a decade of decline since recovering from the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. At the same time, this study focusses on property NPLs, which is unique in nature compared to general NPLs. This study had enabled policymakers to better understand the dynamic implications of several macroeconomic variables affecting property NPLs and assist them in strategic monetary policy making.