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The adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) is important for sustaining Indian agriculture in the face of climate change. Despite considerable effort by both national and international agricultural organizations to promote CSAPs in India, adoption of these practices is low. This study aims to examine the elements that affect the likelihood and intensity of adoption of multiple CSAPs in Bihar, India.

The probability and intensity of adoption of CSAPs are analyzed using multivariate and ordered probit models, respectively.

The results show significant correlations between multiple CSAPs, indicating that their adoptions are interrelated, providing opportunities to exploit the complementarities. The results confirm that both the probability and intensity of adoption of CSAPs are affected by numerous factors, such as demographic characteristics, farm plot features, access to market, socio-economics, climate risks, access to extension services and training. Farmers who perceive high temperature as the major climate risk factor are more likely to adopt crop diversification and minimum tillage. Farmers are less likely to adopt site-specific nutrient management if faced with short winters; however, they are more likely to adopt minimum tillage in this case. Training on agricultural issues is found to have a positive impact on the likelihood and the intensity of CSAPs adoption.

The major policy recommendations coming from of our results are to strengthen local institutions (public extension services, etc.) and to provide more training on CSAPs.

By applying multivariate and ordered probit models, this paper provides some insights on the long-standing discussions on whether farmers adopt CSAPs in a piecemeal or in a composite way.

The link between confidence and economic decisions has been widely covered in the economic literature, yet it is still an unexplored field in tourism. The purpose of this paper is to address this gap, and investigate benefits in forecast accuracy that can be achieved by combining the UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index (TCI) with statistical forecasts.

Research is conducted in a real-life setting, using UNWTO unique data sets of tourism indicators. UNWTO TCI is pooled with statistical forecasts using three distinct approaches. Forecasts efficiency is assessed in terms of accuracy gains and capability to predict turning points in alternative scenarios, including one of the hardest crises the tourism sector ever experienced.

Results suggest that the TCI provides meaningful indications about the sign of future growth in international tourist arrivals, and point to an improvement of forecast accuracy, when the index is used in combination with statistical forecasts. Still, accuracy gains vary greatly across regions and can hardly be generalised. Findings provide meaningful directions to tourism practitioners on the use opportunity cost to produce short-term forecasts using both approaches.

Empirical evidence suggests that a confidence index should not be collected as input to improve their forecasts. It remains a valuable instrument to supplement official statistics, over which it has the advantage of being more frequently compiled and more rapidly accessible. It is also of particular importance to predict changes in the business climate and capture turning points in a timely fashion, which makes it an extremely valuable input for operational and strategic decisions.

The use of sentiment indexes as input to forecasting is an unexplored field in the tourism literature.