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Prospects for the global economy in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Weak trade and fiscal policy constraints suggest global GDP growth will slow somewhat in 2024, with China and the United States losing momentum. Hopes for growth-boosting rate…

Strains of war are beginning to show in Russia

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RUSSIA

The invasion of Ukraine is causing strains in Russian society to show, with opposition to another mobilisation and rising appetite for peace talks. The economy is overheating in…

Central bank policies diverge amid political strains

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INTERNATIONAL

This creates a clear contextual divide, ahead of consequential European Parliament, US and UK elections in 2024. The inability of the central banks to forecast inflation or growth…

Guatemalan-US ties will continue to strengthen

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GUATEMALA/US

Support from Washington helped President Bernardo Arevalo take power in January, resetting relations after a period of strain under former President Alejandro Giammattei…

AI's promise and pitfalls will affect key domains

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INT

AI promises to drive economic efficiencies across sectors, improve the delivery of critical services such as healthcare, democratise access to knowledge and skills, and tighten…

Equatorial Guinea succession plans may face challenges

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EQUATORIAL GUINEA

Russian authorities notably expressed interest in investing in Equatorial Guinea’s declining oil sector. Meanwhile, although the ageing Obiang has crushed domestic opposition, he…

Dominican monetary policies pave way for growth

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DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

The relative sluggishness is due partly to the delayed impacts of financial tightening and reduced global demand. While domestic demand has been the primary engine of growth, the…

Venezuelan migrants could boost host countries' growth

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LATIN AMERICA

Millions of Venezuelans have fled their homeland in recent years as living standards have deteriorated rapidly, with the vast majority settling in other South American nations…

ECB and Fed to delay rate cuts to sustain disinflation

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EU/US

Disinflation is underway on both sides of the North Atlantic, but it is not yet deeply entrenched, giving both central banks a reason to delay cuts. The ECB must contend with…

Peru's Chancay port project will bring controversies

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PERU

It purports to provide not only an improved channel for trade for Peruvian exporters but a hub for regional trade along the western coast from Colombia to Chile. It is exciting US…