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In this chapter we demonstrate the construction of inverse test confidence intervals for the turning-points in estimated nonlinear relationships by the use of the marginal or first derivative function. First, we outline the inverse test confidence interval approach. Then we examine the relationship between the traditional confidence intervals based on the Wald test for the turning-points for a cubic, a quartic, and fractional polynomials estimated via regression analysis and the inverse test intervals. We show that the confidence interval plots of the marginal function can be used to estimate confidence intervals for the turning-points that are equivalent to the inverse test. We also provide a method for the interpretation of the confidence intervals for the second derivative function to draw inferences for the characteristics of the turning-point.

This method is applied to the examination of the turning-points found when estimating a quartic and a fractional polynomial from data used for the estimation of an Environmental Kuznets Curve. The Stata do files used to generate these examples are listed in Appendix A along with the data.

The collection of chapters in this 30th volume of Advances in Econometrics provides a well-deserved tribute to Thomas B. Fomby and R. Carter Hill, who have served as editors of the Advances in Econometrics series for 25 and 21 years, respectively. Volume 30 contains a more varied collection of chapters than previous volumes, in essence mirroring the wide variety of econometric topics covered by the series over 30 years. Volume 30 starts with a chapter discussing the history of this series over the last 30 years. The next five chapters can be broadly categorized as focusing on model specification and testing. Following this section are three contributions that examine instrumental variables models in quite different settings. The next four chapters focus on applied macroeconomics topics. The final chapter offers a practical guide to conducting Monte Carlo simulations.

Distribution. The purpose of this study is to obtain the modified maximum likelihood estimator of stress–strength model using the ranked set sampling, to obtain the asymptotic and bootstrap confidence interval of P[Y < X], to compare the performance of author’s estimates with the estimates under simple random sampling and to apply author’s estimates on head and neck cancer.

The maximum likelihood estimator of R = P[Y < X], where X and Y are two independent inverse Weibull random variables common shape parameter that affect the shape of the distribution, and different scale parameters that have an effect on the distribution dispersion are given under ranked set sampling. Together with the asymptotic and bootstrap confidence interval, Monte Carlo simulation shows that this estimator performs better than the estimator under simple random sampling. Also, the asymptotic and bootstrap confidence interval under ranked set sampling is better than these interval estimators under simple random sampling. The application to head and neck cancer disease data shows that the estimator of R = P[Y < X] that shows the treatment with radiotherapy is more efficient than the treatment with a combined radiotherapy and chemotherapy under ranked set sampling that is better than these estimators under simple random sampling.

The ranked set sampling is more effective than the simple random sampling for the inference of stress-strength model based on inverse Weibull distribution.

This study sheds light on the author’s estimates on head and neck cancer.

This article considers Inverse Gaussian distribution as the basic lifetime model for the test units. The unknown model parameters are estimated using the method of moments, the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. As part of maximum likelihood analysis, this article employs an expectation-maximization algorithm to simplify numerical computation. Subsequently, Bayesian estimates are obtained using the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. This article then presents the design of optimal censoring schemes using a design criterion that deals with the precision of a particular system lifetime quantile. The optimal censoring schemes are obtained after taking into account budget constraints.

This article first presents classical and Bayesian statistical inference for Progressive Type-I Interval censored data. Subsequently, this article considers the design of optimal Progressive Type-I Interval censoring schemes after incorporating budget constraints.

A real dataset is analyzed to demonstrate the methods developed in this article. The adequacy of the lifetime model is ensured using a simulation-based goodness-of-fit test. Furthermore, the performance of various estimators is studied using a detailed simulation experiment. It is observed that the maximum likelihood estimator relatively outperforms the method of moment estimator. Furthermore, the posterior median fares better among Bayesian estimators even in the absence of any subjective information. Furthermore, it is observed that the budget constraints have real implications on the optimal design of censoring schemes.

The proposed methodology may be used for analyzing any Progressive Type-I Interval Censored data for any lifetime model. The methodology adopted to obtain the optimal censoring schemes may be particularly useful for reliability engineers in real-life applications.

We review the experimental evidence on risk aversion in controlled laboratory settings. We review the strengths and weaknesses of alternative elicitation procedures, the strengths and weaknesses of alternative estimation procedures, and finally the effect of controlling for risk attitudes on inferences in experiments.

We take Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) seriously by rigorously estimating structural models using the full set of CPT parameters. Much of the literature only estimates a subset of CPT parameters, or more simply assumes CPT parameter values from prior studies. Our data are from laboratory experiments with undergraduate students and MBA students facing substantial real incentives and losses. We also estimate structural models from Expected Utility Theory (EUT), Dual Theory (DT), Rank-Dependent Utility (RDU), and Disappointment Aversion (DA) for comparison. Our major finding is that a majority of individuals in our sample locally asset integrate. That is, they see a loss frame for what it is, a frame, and behave as if they evaluate the net payment rather than the gross loss when one is presented to them. This finding is devastating to the direct application of CPT to these data for those subjects. Support for CPT is greater when losses are covered out of an earned endowment rather than house money, but RDU is still the best single characterization of individual and pooled choices. Defenders of the CPT model claim, correctly, that the CPT model exists “because the data says it should.” In other words, the CPT model was borne from a wide range of stylized facts culled from parts of the cognitive psychology literature. If one is to take the CPT model seriously and rigorously then it needs to do a much better job of explaining the data than we see here.

Bayesian A/B inference (BABI) is a method that combines subjective prior information with data from A/B experiments to provide inference for lift – the difference in a measure of response in control and treatment, expressed as its ratio to the measure of response in control. The procedure is embedded in stable code that can be executed in a few seconds for an experiment, regardless of sample size, and caters to the objectives and technical background of the owners of experiments. BABI provides more powerful tests of the hypothesis of the impact of treatment on lift, and sharper conclusions about the value of lift, than do legacy conventional methods. In application to 21 large online experiments, the credible interval is 60% to 65% shorter than the conventional confidence interval in the median case, and by close to 100% in a significant proportion of cases; in rare cases, BABI credible intervals are longer than conventional confidence intervals and then by no more than about 10%.

Zero-failure reliability testing aims at demonstrating whether the product has achieved the desired reliability target with zero failure and high confidence level at a given time. Incorporating accelerated degradation testing in zero-failure reliability demonstration test (RDT) facilitates early failure in high reliability items developed within short period of time to be able to survive in fiercely competitive market. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The triangular cyclic stress uses one test chamber thus saving experimental cost. The parameters in model are estimated using maximum likelihood methods. The optimum plan consists in finding out optimum number of cycles, optimum specimens, optimum stress change point(s) and optimum stress rates.

The optimum plan consists in finding out optimum number of cycles, optimum specimens, optimum stress change point(s) and optimum stress rates by minimizing asymptotic variance of estimate of quantile of the lifetime distribution at use condition subject to the constraint that total testing or experimental cost does not exceed a pre-specified budget. Confidence intervals of the design parameters have been obtained and sensitivity analysis carried out. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the plan is robust to small deviations from the true values of baseline parameters.

For some highly reliable products, even accelerated life testing yields little failure data of units in a feasible amount of time. In such cases accelerated degradation testing is carried out, wherein the failure termed as soft failure is defined in terms of performance characteristic of the product exceeding its critical (threshold) value.

Inferences for multicomponent reliability is derived for a family of inverted exponentiated densities having common scale and different shape parameters.

Different estimates for multicomponent reliability is derived from frequentist viewpoint. Two bootstrap confidence intervals of this parametric function are also constructed.

Form a Monte-Carlo simulation study, the authors find that estimates obtained from maximum product spacing and Right-tail Anderson–Darling procedures provide better point and interval estimates of the reliability. Also the maximum likelihood estimate competes good with these estimates.

In literature several distributions are introduced and studied in lifetime analysis. Among others, exponentiated distributions have found wide applications in such studies. In this regard the authors obtain various frequentist estimates for the multicomponent reliability by considering inverted exponentiated distributions.