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Article
Publication date: 18 January 2024

Jing Tang, Yida Guo and Yilin Han

Coal is a critical global energy source, and fluctuations in its price significantly impact related enterprises' profitability. This study aims to develop a robust model for…

Abstract

Purpose

Coal is a critical global energy source, and fluctuations in its price significantly impact related enterprises' profitability. This study aims to develop a robust model for predicting the coal price index to enhance coal purchase strategies for coal-consuming enterprises and provide crucial information for global carbon emission reduction.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed coal price forecasting system combines data decomposition, semi-supervised feature engineering, ensemble learning and deep learning. It addresses the challenge of merging low-resolution and high-resolution data by adaptively combining both types of data and filling in missing gaps through interpolation for internal missing data and self-supervision for initiate/terminal missing data. The system employs self-supervised learning to complete the filling of complex missing data.

Findings

The ensemble model, which combines long short-term memory, XGBoost and support vector regression, demonstrated the best prediction performance among the tested models. It exhibited superior accuracy and stability across multiple indices in two datasets, namely the Bohai-Rim steam-coal price index and coal daily settlement price.

Originality/value

The proposed coal price forecasting system stands out as it integrates data decomposition, semi-supervised feature engineering, ensemble learning and deep learning. Moreover, the system pioneers the use of self-supervised learning for filling in complex missing data, contributing to its originality and effectiveness.

Details

Data Technologies and Applications, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9288

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 February 2024

Chao Xia, Bo Zeng and Yingjie Yang

Traditional multivariable grey prediction models define the background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables uniformly, ignoring the differences between…

Abstract

Purpose

Traditional multivariable grey prediction models define the background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables uniformly, ignoring the differences between their physical properties, which in turn affects the stability and reliability of the model performance.

Design/methodology/approach

A novel multivariable grey prediction model is constructed with different background-value coefficients of the dependent and independent variables, and a one-to-one correspondence between the variables and the background-value coefficients to improve the smoothing effect of the background-value coefficients on the sequences. Furthermore, the fractional order accumulating operator is introduced to the new model weaken the randomness of the raw sequence. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to optimize the background-value coefficients and the order of the model to improve model performance.

Findings

The new model structure has good variability and compatibility, which can achieve compatibility with current mainstream grey prediction models. The performance of the new model is compared and analyzed with three typical cases, and the results show that the new model outperforms the other two similar grey prediction models.

Originality/value

This study has positive implications for enriching the method system of multivariable grey prediction model.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 April 2024

Seyed Abbas Rajaei, Afshin Mottaghi, Hussein Elhaei Sahar and Behnaz Bahadori

This study aims to investigate the spatial distribution of housing prices and identify the affecting factors (independent variable) on the cost of residential units (dependent…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the spatial distribution of housing prices and identify the affecting factors (independent variable) on the cost of residential units (dependent variable).

Design/methodology/approach

The method of the present study is descriptive-analytical and has an applied purpose. The used statistical population in this study is the residential units’ price in Tehran in 2021. For this purpose, the average per square meter of residential units in the city neighborhoods was entered in the geographical information system. Two techniques of ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression have been used to analyze housing prices and modeling. Then, the results of the ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression models were compared by using the housing price interpolation map predicted in each model and the accurate housing price interpolation map.

Findings

Based on the results, the ordinary least squares regression model has poorly modeled housing prices in the study area. The results of the geographically weighted regression model show that the variables (access rate to sports fields, distance from gas station and water station) have a direct and significant effect. Still, the variable (distance from fault) has a non-significant impact on increasing housing prices at a city level. In addition, to identify the affecting variables of housing prices, the results confirm the desirability of the geographically weighted regression technique in terms of accuracy compared to the ordinary least squares regression technique in explaining housing prices. The results of this study indicate that the housing prices in Tehran are affected by the access level to urban services and facilities.

Originality/value

Identifying factors affecting housing prices helps create sustainable housing in Tehran. Building sustainable housing represents spending less energy during the construction process together with the utilization phase, which ultimately provides housing at an acceptable price for all income deciles. In housing construction, the more you consider the sustainable housing principles, the more sustainable housing you provide and you take a step toward sustainable development. Therefore, sustainable housing is an important planning factor for local authorities and developers. As a result, it is necessary to institutionalize an integrated vision based on the concepts of sustainable development in the field of housing in the Tehran metropolis.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 February 2024

Zhen Chen, Jing Liu, Chao Ma, Huawei Wu and Zhi Li

The purpose of this study is to propose a precise and standardized strategy for numerically simulating vehicle aerodynamics.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to propose a precise and standardized strategy for numerically simulating vehicle aerodynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

Error sources in computational fluid dynamics were analyzed. Additionally, controllable experiential and discretization errors, which significantly influence the calculated results, are expounded upon. Considering the airflow mechanism around a vehicle, the computational efficiency and accuracy of each solution strategy were compared and analyzed through numerous computational cases. Finally, the most suitable numerical strategy, including the turbulence model, simplified vehicle model, calculation domain, boundary conditions, grids and discretization scheme, was identified. Two simplified vehicle models were introduced, and relevant wind tunnel tests were performed to validate the selected strategy.

Findings

Errors in vehicle computational aerodynamics mainly stem from the unreasonable simplification of the vehicle model, calculation domain, definite solution conditions, grid strategy and discretization schemes. Using the proposed standardized numerical strategy, the simulated steady and transient aerodynamic characteristics agreed well with the experimental results.

Originality/value

Building upon the modified Low-Reynolds Number k-e model and Scale Adaptive Simulation model, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, a precise and standardized numerical simulation strategy for vehicle aerodynamics is proposed for the first time, which can be integrated into vehicle research and design.

Details

International Journal of Numerical Methods for Heat & Fluid Flow, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0961-5539

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 January 2024

Nasim Babazadeh, Jochen Teizer, Hans-Joachim Bargstädt and Jürgen Melzner

Construction activities conducted in urban areas are often a source of significant noise disturbances, which cause psychological and health issues for residents as well as…

122

Abstract

Purpose

Construction activities conducted in urban areas are often a source of significant noise disturbances, which cause psychological and health issues for residents as well as long-term auditory impairments for construction workers. The limited effectiveness of passive noise control measures due to the close proximity of the construction site to surrounding neighborhoods often results in complaints and eventually lawsuits. These can then lead to delays and cost overruns for the construction projects.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper proposes a novel approach to integrating construction noise as an additional dimension into scheduling construction works. To achieve this, a building information model, including the three-dimensional construction site layout object geometry, resource allocation and schedule information, is utilized. The developed method explores further project data that are typically available, such as the assigned equipment to a task, its precise location, and the estimated duration of noisy tasks. This results in a noise prediction model by using noise mapping techniques and suggesting less noisy alternative ways of construction. Finally, noise data obtained from sensors in a case study contribute real values for validating the proposed approach, which can be used later to suggest solutions for noise mitigation.

Findings

The results of this study indicate that the proposed approach can accurately predict construction noise given a few available parameters from digital project planning and sensors installed on a construction site. Proactively integrating construction noise control measures into the planning process has benefits for both residents and construction managers, as it reduces construction noise-related disturbances, prevents unexpected legal issues and ensures the health and well-being of the workforce.

Originality/value

While previous research has concentrated on real-time data collection using sensors, a more effective solution would also involve addressing and mitigating construction noise during the pre-construction work planning phase.

Details

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-6099

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 November 2023

Laith F. Lazem

Using a combination of the geographical information system (GIS) and the Canadian water quality index (WQI), the current study sought to provide a long-term general assessment of…

Abstract

Purpose

Using a combination of the geographical information system (GIS) and the Canadian water quality index (WQI), the current study sought to provide a long-term general assessment of the water quality of the Shatt Al-Arab River (SAAR), focusing on its suitability for living organisms. Likewise, SPSS statistics was used to develop a nonlinear WQI regression model for the study area.

Design/methodology/approach

The study required four decades of data collection on some environmental characteristics of river water. After that, calculate the WQI and conduct the spatial analysis. Eight variables in total, including water temperature, dissolved oxygen, potential hydrogen ions, electrical conductivity (EC), biological oxygen demand, turbidity, nitrate and phosphate, were chosen to calculate the WQI.

Findings

Throughout the study periods, the WQI values varied from 55.2 to 79.83, falling into the categories of four (marginal) and three (fair), with the sixth period (2007–2008) showing the most decline. The present research demonstrated that the high concentration of phosphates, the high EC values, and minor changes in the other environmental factors are the major causes of the decline in water quality. The variations in ecological variables' overlap are a senior contributor to changes in water quality in general. Notably, using GIS in conjunction with the WQI has shown to be very effective in reducing the time and effort spent on investigating water quality while obtaining precise findings and information at the lowest possible expense. Calibration and validation of the developed model showed that this model had a perfect estimate of the WQI value. Due to its flexibility and impartiality, this study recommends using the proposed model to estimate and predict the WQI in the study area.

Originality/value

Even though the water quality of the SAAR has been the subject of numerous studies, this is the only long-term investigation that has been done to evaluate and predict its water quality.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2023

Nenavath Sreenu

This research study aims to delve into the enduring relationship between housing property prices and economic policy uncertainty across eight major Indian cities.

Abstract

Purpose

This research study aims to delve into the enduring relationship between housing property prices and economic policy uncertainty across eight major Indian cities.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the panel non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model, this study meticulously investigates the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on apartment and house (unit) prices in India during the period from 2000 to 2022.

Findings

The findings of this study indicate that economic policy uncertainty exerts a negative influence on property prices, but noteworthy asymmetry is observed, with positive changes in effect having a more pronounced impact than negative changes. This asymmetrical effect is particularly prominent in the case of unit prices.

Originality/value

This research reveals that long-run price trends are also influenced by factors such as interest rates, building costs and housing loans. Through a comprehensive analysis of these factors and their interplay with property prices, this research paper contributes valuable insights to the understanding of the real estate market dynamics in Indian cities.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 April 2024

Benjian Wu, Linyi Niu, Ruiqi Tan and Haibo Zhu

This study explores whether targeted microcredit can effectively alleviate households’ multidimensional relative poverty (MdRP) in rural China in the new era following the poverty…

Abstract

Purpose

This study explores whether targeted microcredit can effectively alleviate households’ multidimensional relative poverty (MdRP) in rural China in the new era following the poverty elimination campaign and discusses it from a gendered perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies a fixed-effects model, propensity score matching (PSM) and two-stage instrumental variable method to two-period panel data collected from 611 households in rural western China in 2018 and 2021 to explore the effects, mechanisms and heterogenous performance of targeted microcredit on households’ MdRP in the new era.

Findings

(i) Targeted microcredit can alleviate MdRP among rural households in the new era, mainly by reducing income and opportunity inequality. (ii) Targeted microcredit can promote women’s empowerment, mainly by enhancing their social participation, thereby helping alleviate households’ MdRP. The effect of the targeted microcredit on MdRP is more significant in medium-educated women households and non-left-behind women households. (iii) The MdRP alleviation effect is stronger in villages with a high degree of digitalization.

Research limitations/implications

Learn from the experience of targeted microcredit. Accurately identify poor groups and integrate loan design into financial health and women empowerment. Particularly, pay attention to less-educated and left-behind women households and strengthen coordination between targeted microcredit and digital village strategies.

Originality/value

This study clarifies the effect of targeted microcredit on women’s empowerment and households’ MdRP alleviation in the new era. It also explores its various effects on households with different female characteristics and regional digitalization levels, providing ideas for optimizing microcredit.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Muheeb Awawdeh, Zaid Al-Rousan and Khaled Alkaraki

Cesspits are the means for each house to dispose of wastewater in the Bani Kinanah District (BKD) of Jordan, which creates severe environmental complications. This research aimed…

Abstract

Purpose

Cesspits are the means for each house to dispose of wastewater in the Bani Kinanah District (BKD) of Jordan, which creates severe environmental complications. This research aimed to find a suitable site for a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in BKD.

Design/methodology/approach

Geographic Information System (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used for an optimal site selection for a sewage treatment plant. Several datasets were obtained to prepare the maps of the criteria influencing the choice of the most suitable site for the WWTP. The analytic hierarchy process was used to apply the weights for each factor.

Findings

Five classes of suitability were generated: 0.23% very high suitability, 8.49% high suitability, 47.12% moderate suitability, 37.67% low suitability and 6.49% very low suitability. According to Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) results, the elevations, slope and groundwater depth have high importance; where their weights 21%, 19% and 17%, respectively. The most suitable site for establishing a WWTP was found in the northern part of the study area, where it is characterized by relatively low elevations (−90 to −93 m), low slope (0–2.5 %), distance from groundwater level (47–82 m) and the space is sufficient for building the plant (25328 m2, 8861 m2 and 8586 m2).

Research limitations/implications

This research is limited by the availability of data.

Practical implications

The research is invaluable for decision makers involved in urban planning.

Social implications

Wastewater treatment plants are essential for communities with limited resources such as Jordan. It has also profound impacts on the surrounding environment.

Originality/value

From the present study, it can be concluded that GIS is essential in urban utility establishment, like urban domestic wastewater treatment site selection. Although the study area has adequate potential areas for establishing WWTP, further assessment of flood vulnerability, wastewater amount quantification, population growth and urban expansion must be seriously considered before implementation.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 March 2024

Zabih Ghelichi, Monica Gentili and Pitu Mirchandani

This paper aims to propose a simulation-based performance evaluation model for the drone-based delivery of aid items to disaster-affected areas. The objective of the model is to…

178

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a simulation-based performance evaluation model for the drone-based delivery of aid items to disaster-affected areas. The objective of the model is to perform analytical studies, evaluate the performance of drone delivery systems for humanitarian logistics and can support the decision-making on the operational design of the system – on where to locate drone take-off points and on assignment and scheduling of delivery tasks to drones.

Design/methodology/approach

This simulation model captures the dynamics and variabilities of the drone-based delivery system, including demand rates, location of demand points, time-dependent parameters and possible failures of drones’ operations. An optimization model integrated with the simulation system can update the optimality of drones’ schedules and delivery assignments.

Findings

An extensive set of experiments was performed to evaluate alternative strategies to demonstrate the effectiveness for the proposed optimization/simulation system. In the first set of experiments, the authors use the simulation-based evaluation tool for a case study for Central Florida. The goal of this set of experiments is to show how the proposed system can be used for decision-making and decision-support. The second set of experiments presents a series of numerical studies for a set of randomly generated instances.

Originality/value

The goal is to develop a simulation system that can allow one to evaluate performance of drone-based delivery systems, accounting for the uncertainties through simulations of real-life drone delivery flights. The proposed simulation model captures the variations in different system parameters, including interval of updating the system after receiving new information, demand parameters: the demand rate and their spatial distribution (i.e. their locations), service time parameters: travel times, setup and loading times, payload drop-off times and repair times and drone energy level: battery’s energy is impacted and requires battery change/recharging while flying.

Details

Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-6747

Keywords

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