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Article
Publication date: 27 February 2023

Ibrahim Cutcu, Guven Atay and Selcuk Gokhan Gerlikhan

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the consequences of the pandemic and the housing sector with econometric tests that allow for structural breaks.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the consequences of the pandemic and the housing sector with econometric tests that allow for structural breaks.

Design/methodology/approach

Study data were collected weekly between March 9, 2020, and February 4, 2022, and analyzed for Turkey. In the model of the study, housing loans were used as a housing market indicator, and the number of new deaths and new cases were used as data related to the pandemic. The exchange rate, which affects the use of housing loans, was added to the model as a control variable. This study was analyzed to examine the relationship between the pandemic and the housing sector, time series analysis techniques that allow structural breaks were used.

Findings

Based on the result of the analyses, it was concluded that there is a long-run relationship between the pandemic stages and housing markets along with structural breaks. As a result of the time-varying causality test developed to determine the causality relationship between the variables and its direction, a bidirectional causality relationship was identified between all variables at certain dates.

Research limitations/implications

Study data were collected weekly between March 9, 2020, and February 4, 2022, and analyzed in the case of Turkey.

Practical implications

Based on results of the study, it is recommended that policy makers and market actors take into account extraordinary situations such as pandemics and create a budget allocation that is always ready to use for this purpose.

Originality/value

The empirical examination of the relationship between the pandemic and the housing sector in Turkey provides originality to this study in terms of its topic, sample, methodology, contribution to the literature and potential policy recommendations.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 June 2023

Ahmet Keser, Ibrahim Cutcu, Sunil Tiwari, Mehmet Vahit Eren, S.S. Askar and Mohamed Abouhawwash

The main objective of this research is to investigate if there is a long-term relationship between “terrorism” and sustainable “economic growth” in Big Ten Countries.

Abstract

Purpose

The main objective of this research is to investigate if there is a long-term relationship between “terrorism” and sustainable “economic growth” in Big Ten Countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The data was tested via Panel ARDL Analysis. The growth rate (GR) is the dependent variable, and the “Global Terror Index (GTI)” is the independent variable as the terror indicator. The ratio of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the ratio of External Balance (EB) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are included in the model as the control variables due to their effect on the growth rate. A Panel ARDL analysis is conducted to examine the existence of long-term co-integration between terror and the economy. The planning of the study, the formation of its theoretical and conceptual framework, and the literature research were carried out in 2 months, and the collection of data, the creation of the methodology and the analysis of the analyzes were carried out in 2 months, the interpretation of the findings and the development of policy recommendations were carried out within a period of 1 month. The entire study was completed in a total of 5 months.

Findings

Results showed that “Terror” has a negative impact on “Growth Rate” in the long term while “External Balance” and “Foreign Direct Investment” positively affect the Growth Rate. The coefficients for the short term are not statistically significant.

Research limitations/implications

The sample is only limited to Big Ten including China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Poland and South Africa. The period for annual data collection covers the years between 2002 and 2019 and due to the unavailability of data.

Practical implications

Considering the risks and the mutual negative effect that turns into a vicious circle between terrorism and the economy, it is necessary to eliminate the problems that cause terrorism in the mentioned countries, on the one hand, and to develop policies that will improve economic performance on the other.

Social implications

Trustful law enforcement bodies have to be established and supported by all technological means to prevent terror. The conditions causing terror have to be investigated carefully and the problems causing terror or internal conflict have to be solved. International cooperation against terrorism has to be strengthened and partnerships, information, experience sharing have to be supported at the maximum levels.

Originality/value

It is certain that terror might have a negative influence on the performance of economies. But the limited number of studies within this vein and the small size of their sample groups mostly including single-country case studies require conducting a study by using a larger sample group of countries. Big Ten here represents at least half of the population of the world and different regions of the Globe.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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