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This study evaluates the Federal Reserve (Fed) initial and final forecasts of the unemployment rate for 1983Q1-2018Q4. The Fed initial forecasts in a typical quarter are made in the first month (or immediately after), and the final forecasts are made in the third month of the quarter. The analysis also includes the private forecasts, which are made close to the end of the second month of the quarter.

In evaluating the multi-period forecasts, the study tests for systematic bias, directional accuracy, symmetric loss, equal forecast accuracy, encompassing and orthogonality. For every test equation, it employs the Newey–West procedure in order to obtain the standard errors corrected for both heteroscedasticity and inherent serial correlation.

Both Fed and private forecasts beat the naïve benchmark and predict directional change under symmetric loss. Fed final forecasts are more accurate than initial forecasts, meaning that predictive accuracy improves as more information becomes available. The private and Fed final forecasts contain distinct predictive information, but the latter produces significantly lower mean squared errors. The results are mixed when the study compares the private with the Fed initial forecasts. Additional results indicate that Fed (private) forecast errors are (are not) orthogonal to changes in consumer expectations about future unemployment. As such, consumer expectations can potentially help improve the accuracy of private forecasts.

Unlike many other studies, this study focuses on the unemployment rate, since it is an important indicator of the social cost of business cycles, and thus its forecasts are of special interest to policymakers, politicians and social scientists. Accurate unemployment rate forecasts, in particular, are essential for policymakers to design an optimal macroeconomic policy.

Employee burnout is increasingly coming under attention due to its negative impact on employee well-being and organisational effectiveness. This study, a systematic review, aims to evaluate the role of servant leadership and its mediators in preventing and mitigating against burnout experiences in organisations.

A preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analyses (PRISMA) was conducted using three databases, Academic search Complete, Embase and Scopus, in addition to bibliography searches. Articles were included if they reported on primary data, in English from inception to 2023. The mixed methods critical appraisal tool was used to assess the quality of articles, and a narrative synthesis was used to report results.

The search strategy yielded 4,045 articles, of which (N = 17), with total sample size of (N = 10,444) are included. Findings suggest that servant leadership is predictive of burnout, and that several mediators impact this relationship. Most studies were conducted in health care (n = 8) and banking (n = 3), and while the quality of the studies was mostly high (64%), the methods used were mainly descriptive and cross-sectional, which limits the extent to which causality can be inferred. A theory of change is provided based on the findings from this review and integrated with the extant literature on servant leadership theory, and can be used by organisations to support the policy, training and practice of servant leadership to reduce burnout.

Servant leadership is predictive of burnout; however, further research needs to be undertaken in this important emerging area.