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The decision maker is in charge of procurement auctions at the department of transportation of Orangia (a fictitious U.S. state). Students are asked to assist him in estimating the winning bids in various auctions concerning highway repair jobs using data on past auctions. The decision maker is faced with various professional, statistical, and ethical dilemmas.

To analyze highway procurement auctions from the buyer-auctioneer perspective, establish basic facts regarding the project price-to-estimated cost ratio, set up and estimate a structural regression model to predict the winning bid, and compute the probability the winning price will be below estimated cost. Difficulties include heteroskedasticity, logarithmic specification, and omitted variable bias. Also to estimate a Logit regression and predict bidder collusion probability.

Supplements the (A) case.

The data for this case were obtained primarily through a series of in-person interviews in Penang between the authors and Pete Browning (a pseudonym) from 2017 to early 2019. The authors also consulted secondary data sources, including publicly available material on BMax and “Company B”.

This case examines a key decision, or set of decisions, in the life of a small- to medium-sized management consultancy group, namely, whether they might expand their operations in Southeast Asia, and if so, where. These key decisions came in the wake of their having already established a very modest scale presence there, with an operating base on the island of Penang just off the north western coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The initial establishment of a Southeast Asian branch had been somewhat spontaneous in nature – a former colleague of one of the two managing partners in the USA was on the ground in Malaysia and available: he became the local partner in the firm. But the firm had now been eyeing expansion within the region, with three markets under particular consideration (Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand) and a further two (Vietnam and China) also seen as possible targets, though at a more peripheral level. The questions facing the decision makers were “was it time they expand beyond Malaysia?” and “if so, where?”

This case could be used effectively in undergraduate courses in international business. The key concepts on which the case focuses are the factors affecting market entry, particularly the choice of market and the assessment of potential attractiveness such markets offer.