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Article
Publication date: 29 December 2023

Anselm Komla Abotsi

The unsustainable public debt of most African economies adversely affects their economic growth and stability. This study aims to explore the influence of cross-country indicators…

Abstract

Purpose

The unsustainable public debt of most African economies adversely affects their economic growth and stability. This study aims to explore the influence of cross-country indicators of governance from African countries on public debt accumulation.

Design/methodology/approach

The study deployed a quantitative research design technique. Secondary data was used in this study. The frequency of the data is annual, and it is available from 1996 to 2022 for 48 countries in Africa. The study deployed the system generalized method of moments for the estimation.

Findings

The study finds that countries with high regulatory quality standards, control corruption and ensure effective governance accumulate less government debt while countries that abide by the rule of law instead accumulate more government debt. The study also finds that economic growth and government revenue reduce government gross debt while government expenditure and investments increase public debt.

Research limitations/implications

Due to data unavailability, other factors which are likely to influence government debt accumulation were not included in the study as control variables. This is the limitation of the study.

Social implications

African governments should strive to maintain high regulatory quality standards through the formulation and implementation of sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development, and ensure quality and accountability of public and civil services. Governments are also urged to control corruption and enact good laws so that the enforcement of these laws will not worsen the risk of becoming debt-distressed.

Originality/value

Recent studies on governance and public debt were focused on the Arabian Gulf countries, countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and a combination of high and low-income countries. This study scrutinizes exclusively the effects of the quality of governance indicators on public debt accumulation, in the context of Africa.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2054-6238

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 March 2024

Toan Khanh Tran Pham and Quyen Hoang Thuy To Nguyen Le

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between government spending, public debt and the informal economy. In addition, this paper investigates the moderating…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between government spending, public debt and the informal economy. In addition, this paper investigates the moderating role of public debt in government spending and the informal economy nexus.

Design/methodology/approach

By utilizing a data set spanning from 2000 to 2017 of 32 Asian economies, the study has employed the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The study is also extended to consider the marginal effects of government spending on the informal economy at different degrees of public debt.

Findings

The results indicate that an increase in government spending and public debt leads to an expansion of the informal economy in the region. Interestingly, the positive effect of government spending on the informal economy will increase with a rise in public debt.

Originality/value

This study stresses the role of government spending and public debt on the informal economy in Asian nations. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study pioneers to explore the moderating effect of public debt in the public spending-informal economy nexus.

Details

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, vol. 44 no. 7/8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-333X

Keywords

Expert briefing
Publication date: 16 May 2024

Local governments’ fiscal positions have become increasingly untenable post-pandemic amid a property market downturn. Record numbers of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs…

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB287076

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Article
Publication date: 13 May 2024

Fang Ye and Yunxi Guo

This paper aims to answer the following important questions: Is public debt in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries sustainable? What are the determinants of public debt…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to answer the following important questions: Is public debt in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries sustainable? What are the determinants of public debt sustainability in these countries, and do these determinants exhibit heterogeneity due to regional, natural resource, and income differences among SSA countries?

Design/methodology/approach

This study analyzes the public debt sustainability in SSA countries using the theoretical model known as the Present Value Budget Constraint (PVBC) model developed by Hamilton and Flavin (1986), and adopts the econometric testing method proposed by Trehan and Walsh (1991). Moreover, to empirically investigate the determinants of public debt sustainability in SSA countries, the System-Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM) method is applied. Furthermore, this study conducts heterogeneity analysis by categorizing the sample based on different regions, natural resource endowments, and income levels. The data of this study are sourced from the IMF and World Bank databases for 45 SSA countries from 2005 to 2021.

Findings

Findings reveal that public debt in SSA countries is not sustainable in the long run, with factors such as the previous government debt, long-term debt ratio, debt repayment capacity, economic growth rate, inflation rate, export to GDP, and government fiscal deficit rate influencing sustainability. Additionally, the factors exhibit heterogeneity attributed to regional, natural resource, and income variations among SSA countries.

Practical implications

The findings of our study will serve as a catalyst for policymakers in the SSA countries to embrace and sustain robust fiscal consolidation and debt stabilization measures. Moreover, countries with distinct characteristics should implement tailored approaches. Additionally, policymakers in SSA countries should implement economic measures to address public debt issues. These measures include improving the macroeconomic structure, promoting economic transformation and diversification of industries, fostering sustainable economic growth, ensuring price stability, and strengthening resilience against external shocks and debt risks. Specifically, countries endowed with indigenous species, resources, and tourism potential should adopt a well-coordinated strategy that utilizes agriculture, tourism, ecotourism, and the hospitality industry as instruments for sustainable local community and rural development.

Originality/value

Firstly, it assesses the sustainability of public debt and its determinants for countries in SSA, which distinguishes it from previous studies that only focus on either debt sustainability or determinants of debt separately. Secondly, by including multiple SSA countries in the analysis, this study stands out from prior research that predominantly concentrates on specific nations. Thirdly, the utilization of the System-GMM method for analyzing determinants adds a novel dimension to this study, departing from earlier literature primarily focused on debt thresholds. Lastly, the heterogeneity analysis conducted in this study provides an empirical foundation for tailoring policies to different countries, addressing a facet often overlooked in earlier literature.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 July 2024

Nnachi Egwu Onuoha

This study is aimed at interrogating the mediation role of public spending in domestic debt and economic growth nexus, drawing on debt overhang theory and the Keynesian view.

Abstract

Purpose

This study is aimed at interrogating the mediation role of public spending in domestic debt and economic growth nexus, drawing on debt overhang theory and the Keynesian view.

Design/methodology/approach

The study deployed a time series data (from 1981 to 2020) set drawn from the 2021 Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The mediation effect of public spending was tested by performing structural equation modeling after pre-estimation Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test.

Findings

Overall, the study outcomes indicate that domestic debt and public spending have significant positive effects on economic growth. Additionally, the study finds public spending to partially mediate domestic debt and economic growth nexus.

Practical implications

This study's outcomes provide insights that will enable fiscal policymakers to focus on internal borrowing, keep it under strict control to avert crowding out effects and improve public spending on productive projects to stimulate economic growth.

Originality/value

As the first study to question the mediation effect of public spending in domestic debt-economic growth relationship, it deepens and extends extant literature on domestic debt-economic growth nexus.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 6 May 2024

Channoufi Sabrine

This chapter examines the influence of external public borrowing resources on economic progress in Tunisia. The study focuses on two stages: First, the influence is studied in a…

Abstract

This chapter examines the influence of external public borrowing resources on economic progress in Tunisia. The study focuses on two stages: First, the influence is studied in a direct sense and then in an indirect sense, i.e., through a transmission channel of this influence. By applying the autoregressive distributed technique with staggered lags (ARDL), over a period ranging from 1986 to 2019, the results showed that the influence of external borrowing resources on growth seems to be unfavorable in the short term but positive in the long term, hence the importance of the empirical technique chosen. Second, three interaction variables were tested, namely total government expenditure, government investment expenditure, and the real effective exchange rate. The results obtained call for better attention to the channels identified to maximize the positive influence of external public debt on the country's economic progress.

Details

The Emerald Handbook of Ethical Finance and Corporate Social Responsibility
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-406-7

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 November 2023

Yusuf Yildirim

This paper aims to develop a compound measure, which is fiscal vulnerability index, provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for Türkiye's economy.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to develop a compound measure, which is fiscal vulnerability index, provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for Türkiye's economy.

Design/methodology/approach

The index is constructed using twelve distinct fiscal indicators and applying the portfolio method, which considers the time-varying cross-correlation structure between the subindices.

Findings

Dynamics of the fiscal vulnerability index indicate that it accurately predicts to the well-known fiscal crisis occurring in Türkiye's recent history. As a result, such a compound measure should be used in the early identification of fiscal vulnerability in Türkiye.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper, relative to existing papers, is that a fiscal vulnerability index was constructed by employing the most contemporaneous method and evaluating its performance in terms of capturing historical stress periods.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 October 2023

Thembeka Sibahle Ngcobo, Lindokuhle Talent Zungu and Nomusa Yolanda Nkomo

This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with…

1277

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with those of newly democratized European countries (Germany and Ukraine) during the period 1990–2022.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology involves three stages: identifying the appropriate transition variable, assessing the linearity between public debt and economic growth and selecting the order m of the transition function. The linearity test helps identify the nature of relationships between public debt and economic growth. The wild cluster bootstrap-Lagrange Multiplier test is used to evaluate the model’s appropriateness. All these tests would be executed using the Lagrange Multiplier type of test.

Findings

The results signify the policy switch, as the authors find that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by two transitions that symbolize that the current stage of the relationship is beyond the U-shape; however, an S-shape. The results show that for newly democratized African countries, the threshold during the first waves was 50% of GDP, represented by a U-shape, which then transits to an inverted U-shape with a threshold of 65% of GDP. Then, for the European case, it was 60% of GDP, which is now 72% of GDP.

Originality/value

The findings suggest that an escalating level of public debt has a negative impact on economic growth; therefore, it is important to implement fiscal discipline, prioritize government spending and reduce reliance on debt financing. This can be achieved by focusing on revenue generation, implementing effective taxation policies, reducing wasteful expenditures and promoting investment and productivity-enhancing measures.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Ladislava Issever Grochová and Michal Škára

This chapter examines the impact of sectoral indebtedness on GDP in Czechia, initially a low-indebted small open economy in which debt dynamics are becoming a major concern. The…

Abstract

This chapter examines the impact of sectoral indebtedness on GDP in Czechia, initially a low-indebted small open economy in which debt dynamics are becoming a major concern. The impact of household debt, non-financial corporation debt and public debt is analysed with the use of local projections based on instrumental variable estimations. The results show a more pronounced influence of household debt compared to non-financial corporation and government debt. Initially, increasing household debt stimulates short-run economic activity, but in the medium run, it limits household consumption and negatively affects output. This negative impact gradually turns into a positive effect in the long run. Non-financial corporation debt has a negative short- to medium-run impact but can have a small positive effect in the long run due to the prevalence of tradable industries. Public debt initially has a short-run negative impact, but then gradually becomes positive. Overall, the findings have implications for macroeconomic policies and the importance of monitoring financial stability.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-841-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 August 2024

Wenbin Tang, Xia Chen, Xue Zhang and Zhihong Peng

This study aims to explain the market-oriented transformation dilemma of Chinese urban investment and development companies (UIDCs; also known as local government investment and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explain the market-oriented transformation dilemma of Chinese urban investment and development companies (UIDCs; also known as local government investment and financing companies) and objectively evaluate their transformation efficiency from both static and dynamic perspectives. The results of the research provide methodological bases for improving the transformation efficiency of UIDCs, thus pointing out the direction for the rational planning of their transformation path.

Design/methodology/approach

This study takes Chinese UIDCs in market transformation during 2015–2019 as the research object and uses principal component analysis to screen the index system for measuring the efficiency of market transformation. It then uses a three-stage data envelopment analysis model and the Malmquist productivity index to evaluate the market transformation efficiency of these companies during 2015–2019 and comprehensively analyzes the influence of external environmental factors on the market transformation of Chinese UIDCs.

Findings

Research results show that the transformation efficiency of Chinese UIDCs is low and slow overall and that large spatial and temporal differences exist. The transformation efficiency of UIDCs located in eastern China is higher than that of UIDCs in central and western China. The higher the external environmental factors of regional GDP, local debt service pressure and credit rating, the more likely they are to cause input redundancy in the transformation process of Chinese UIDCs, which is not conducive to their market-oriented transformation. In addition, the higher the urbanization rate, the more effective it is to improve the efficiency of market-oriented transformation of UIDCs. If the influence of environmental factors is stripped away, both the overall efficiency value and pure technical efficiency value of market-oriented transformation of Chinese UIDCs will increase while the scale efficiency value becomes smaller.

Originality/value

This research measures the transformation efficiency of Chinese UIDCs and comprehensively analyzes the influence of external environmental factors on their market-oriented transformation. The goal is to enrich the study of the market-oriented transformation efficiency evaluation index system of Chinese UIDCs at the theoretical level and provide important reference values for improving the efficiency of market-oriented transformation of Chinese UIDCs at the practical level.

Details

Chinese Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-614X

Keywords

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