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1 – 5 of 5Zvi Schwartz, Jing Ma and Timothy Webb
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the primary forecast evaluation metric in hospitality and tourism research; however its main shortcoming is that it is asymmetric. The…
Abstract
Purpose
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the primary forecast evaluation metric in hospitality and tourism research; however its main shortcoming is that it is asymmetric. The asymmetry occurs due to over or under forecasts that introduce bias into forecast evaluation. This study aims to explore the nature of asymmetry and designs a new measure, one that reduces the asymmetric properties while maintaining MAPE’s scale-free and intuitive interpretation characteristics.
Design/methodology/approach
The study proposes and tests a new forecasting accuracy measure for hospitality revenue management (RM). A computer simulation is used to assess and demonstrate the problem of asymmetry when forecasting with MAPE, and the new measures’ (MSapeMER, that is, Mean of Selectively applied Absolute Percentage Error or Magnitude of Error Relative to the estimate) ability to reduce it. The MSapeMER’s effectiveness is empirically validated by using a large set of hotel forecasts.
Findings
The study demonstrates the ability of the MSapeMER to reduce the asymmetry bias generated by MAPE. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that MSapeMER is more effective than previous attempts to correct for asymmetry bias. The results show via simulation and empirical investigation that the error metric is more stable and less swayed by the presence of over and under forecasts.
Research limitations/implications
It is recommended that hospitality RM researchers and professionals adopt MSapeMER when using MAPE to evaluate forecasting performance. The MSapeMER removes the potential bias that MAPE invites due to its calculation and presence of over and under forecasts. Therefore, forecasting evaluations may be less affected by the presence of over and under forecasts and their ability to bias forecasting results.
Practical implications
Hospitality RM should adopt this measure when MAPE is used, to reduce biased decisions driven by the “asymmetry of MAPE.”
Originality/value
The MAPE error metric exhibits an asymmetry problem, and this paper proposes a more effective solution to reduce biased results with two major methodological contributions. It is first to systematically study the characteristics of MAPE’s asymmetry, while proposing and testing a measure that considerably reduces the amount of asymmetry. This is a critical contribution because MAPE is the primary forecasting metric in hospitality and tourism studies. The second methodological contribution is a procedure developed to “quantify” the asymmetry. The approach is demonstrated and allows future research to compare asymmetric characteristics among various accuracy measures.
Patrik Jonsson, Johan Öhlin, Hafez Shurrab, Johan Bystedt, Azam Sheikh Muhammad and Vilhelm Verendel
This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?
Design/methodology/approach
A mixed-method case approach is applied. Explanatory variables are identified from the literature and explored in a qualitative analysis at an automotive original equipment manufacturer. Using logistic regression and random forest classification models, quantitative data (historical schedule transactions and internal data) enables the testing of the predictive difference of variables under various planning horizons and inaccuracy levels.
Findings
The effects on delivery schedule inaccuracies are contingent on a decoupling point, and a variable may have a combined amplifying (complexity generating) and stabilizing (complexity absorbing) moderating effect. Product complexity variables are significant regardless of the time horizon, and the item’s order life cycle is a significant variable with predictive differences that vary. Decoupling management is identified as a mechanism for generating complexity absorption capabilities contributing to delivery schedule accuracy.
Practical implications
The findings provide guidelines for exploring and finding patterns in specific variables to improve material delivery schedule inaccuracies and input into predictive forecasting models.
Originality/value
The findings contribute to explaining material delivery schedule variations, identifying potential root causes and moderators, empirically testing and validating effects and conceptualizing features that cause and moderate inaccuracies in relation to decoupling management and complexity theory literature?
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Rosemarie Santa González, Marilène Cherkesly, Teodor Gabriel Crainic and Marie-Eve Rancourt
This study aims to deepen the understanding of the challenges and implications entailed by deploying mobile clinics in conflict zones to reach populations affected by violence and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to deepen the understanding of the challenges and implications entailed by deploying mobile clinics in conflict zones to reach populations affected by violence and cut off from health-care services.
Design/methodology/approach
This research combines an integrated literature review and an instrumental case study. The literature review comprises two targeted reviews to provide insights: one on conflict zones and one on mobile clinics. The case study describes the process and challenges faced throughout a mobile clinic deployment during and after the Iraq War. The data was gathered using mixed methods over a two-year period (2017–2018).
Findings
Armed conflicts directly impact the populations’ health and access to health care. Mobile clinic deployments are often used and recommended to provide health-care access to vulnerable populations cut off from health-care services. However, there is a dearth of peer-reviewed literature documenting decision support tools for mobile clinic deployments.
Originality/value
This study highlights the gaps in the literature and provides direction for future research to support the development of valuable insights and decision support tools for practitioners.
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Mamun Mishra and Bibhuti Bhusan Pati
Islanding detection has become a serious concern due to the extensive integration of renewable energy sources. The non-detection zone (NDZ) and system-specific applicability…
Abstract
Purpose
Islanding detection has become a serious concern due to the extensive integration of renewable energy sources. The non-detection zone (NDZ) and system-specific applicability, which are the two major issues with the islanding detection methods, are addressed here. The purpose of this paper is to devise an islanding detection method with zero NDZ and, which will be applicable to all types of renewable energy sources using the sequence components of the point of common coupling voltage.
Design/methodology/approach
Here, a parameter using the sequence components is derived to devise an islanding detection method. The parameter derived from the sequence components of point of common coupling voltage is analysed using wavelet transform. Various operating conditions, such as islanding and non-islanding, are considered for several test systems to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. All the simulations are carried out in Simulink/MATLAB environment.
Findings
The results showed that the proposed method has zero NDZ for both inverter- and synchronous generator-based renewable energy sources. In addition, the proposed method works satisfactorily as per the IEEE 1547 standards requirement.
Originality/value
Performance of the proposed method has been tested in several test systems and is found to be better than some conventional methods.
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Research on solar energy adoption offers a multidimensional scope and warrants exploration from multiple perspectives, including political, economic, management, behavioral…
Abstract
Purpose
Research on solar energy adoption offers a multidimensional scope and warrants exploration from multiple perspectives, including political, economic, management, behavioral, policy and innovation aspects. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively consolidate major research findings on the premise of solar energy adoption and to disclose gaps in the existing literature.
Design/methodology/approach
A bibliometric analysis of the vast literature is conducted on 1,009 meticulously shortlisted articles following the semi-systematic literature review methodology. A text analytics tool named BibExcel is used for synthesizing the literature, and the results are visualized using Gephi, Pajek and a spreadsheet application.
Findings
This paper reports the evolution of research in the selected domain. It is noted that research in this domain was primarily concentrated on four broad themes, namely, peer effects and spatial patterns, public perceptions, policies and economics and technological evolution. The analysis further reveals the merging of two of these themes as a result of transdisciplinary research and also projects future research trends emphasizing political interventions in technological evolution and diffusion.
Originality/value
Research trends and future research scope are identified and discussed in detail. The information revealed from the analysis, along with the research implications, will assist policymakers in noting the flaws in the current doctrines and practices, entrepreneurs in understanding potential enablers and barriers influencing solar energy adoption and budding scholars in comprehending the current research status and framing promising research objectives to close the existing research gaps.
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