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Trade rebound does not match regional demand outlooks

Location:

INT

Estimates see world trade rebounding from sub-1% to 3.5% in 2024, even though all regions are slowing or growing slowly

Moscow needs strong revenue growth to fund spending

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia plans to increase federal revenues and spending to record levels to fund the war in Ukraine

Demography could time-limit China's ascendancy

Location:

INT

Sizeable economic and population shifts will occur among the largest economies in coming decades

US, China on changed GDP growth trajectories

Location:

INT

US GDP has outperformed pre-pandemic expectations, while China and other Asian giants have fallen short

Budget and climate pressures affect the growth outlook

Location:

INT

OECD economies will be under increasing strain to decarbonise while also keeping their budget balances sustainable

Near- and friend-shoring markedly alter trade flows

Location:

INT

The United States, Europe and Japan are trading more together and less with China, which is trading more with Russia

Wealth shifts across ages will exacerbate inequalities

Location:

INT

Huge wealth transfers from those currently over 60 to the under-60s in the coming decades will have broad implications

Ukraine relies on external aid to resist the invasion

Location:

UKRAINE

External military and financial aid is critical to Ukraine’s efforts to resist the Russian invasion

The world economic downturn will be mild but prolonged

Location:

INT

Core CPI is easing towards 2% official targets in major nations, but not fast enough for rate cuts to boost 2024 growth

Bullish and bearish China growth view is reconcilable

Location:

CHINA

China analysts are diverging between those growing more negative on the long-run prospects and those remaining bullish