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The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed and target inflation.

The paper explored the questions within two econometric frameworks, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Threshold Regression Models using data spanning the period 1965–2019.

The study estimated a range of 5–7% optimal inflation for Ghana. While this confirms the single-digit inflation targeting by the Bank of Ghana, the range is lower than the central bank's band of 6–10%. The combined behaviours of the central bank, banks and external outlook influence inflation target misses.

The study urges the central bank to continue pursuing its single-digit inflation targeting. However, it implies that there is still room for the Bank to further lower the current inflation band to achieve an optimal outcome on growth and welfare. Again, the Bank should commit to increased transparency and accountability to enhance its credibility in attaining the targeted inflation.

The study is one of the first attempts in Africa in Ghana to estimate an optimal inflation target and investigate the underlying factors for deviation from the targets.

This study aims to examine the relationship between financial inclusion and financial system development in emerging and frontier markets.

Using data across 35 countries over 19 years (2004–2022), the improved GMM estimation technique reveals that financial inclusion significantly contributes to the development of financial systems.

The study uses a segmented approach, dividing financial development indices into subindices: financial depth, financial access and financial efficiency. Indicators of bank financial inclusion show a positive and highly significant relationship with bank depth and access but a negative relationship with bank efficiency. Similarly, indicators of the debt market and stock market financial inclusion demonstrate positive relationships with market depth and access but negative relationships with debt and stock market efficiency. The study further examines composite indexes of financial inclusion for bank, debt and stock market segments, finding strong and highly significant relationships with market development. These results underscore the importance of promoting financial inclusion across all segments of the financial sector to achieve an inclusive financial system.

The implications of this research highlight the need for policymakers and practitioners to implement policies and regulations that enhance financial inclusion and foster the development of robust financial systems. By extending access to mainstream financial instruments and services, financial institutions can stimulate financial intermediation and support, thereby accelerating the development of the banking, debt and stock markets.

The study is robust to the use of several indicators of financial inclusion and financial development, and it forms part of the early studies that examine the close relationship between the two variables.