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1 – 10 of 332Lu Zhang, Pu Dong, Long Zhang, Bojiao Mu and Ahui Yang
This study aims to explore the dissemination and evolutionary path of online public opinion from a crisis management perspective. By clarifying the influencing factors and dynamic…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore the dissemination and evolutionary path of online public opinion from a crisis management perspective. By clarifying the influencing factors and dynamic mechanisms of online public opinion dissemination, this study provides insights into attenuating the negative impact of online public opinion and creating a favorable ecological space for online public opinion.
Design/methodology/approach
This research employs bibliometric analysis and CiteSpace software to analyze 302 Chinese articles published from 2006 to 2023 in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) database and 276 English articles published from 1994 to 2023 in the Web of Science core set database. Through literature keyword clustering, co-citation analysis and burst terms analysis, this paper summarizes the core scientific research institutions, scholars, hot topics and evolutionary paths of online public opinion crisis management research from both Chinese and international academic communities.
Findings
The results show that the study of online public opinion crisis management in China and internationally is centered on the life cycle theory, which integrates knowledge from information, computer and system sciences. Although there are differences in political interaction and stage evolution, the overall evolutionary path is similar, and it develops dynamically in the “benign conflict” between the expansion of the research perspective and the gradual refinement of research granularity.
Originality/value
This study summarizes the research results of online public opinion crisis management from China and the international academic community and identifies current research hotspots and theoretical evolution paths. Future research can focus on deepening the basic theories of public opinion crisis management under the influence of frontier technologies, exploring the subjectivity and emotionality of web users using fine algorithms and promoting the international development of network public opinion crisis management theory through transnational comparison and international cooperation.
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Thao-Trang Huynh-Cam, Long-Sheng Chen and Tzu-Chuen Lu
This study aimed to use enrollment information including demographic, family background and financial status, which can be gathered before the first semester starts, to construct…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aimed to use enrollment information including demographic, family background and financial status, which can be gathered before the first semester starts, to construct early prediction models (EPMs) and extract crucial factors associated with first-year student dropout probability.
Design/methodology/approach
The real-world samples comprised the enrolled records of 2,412 first-year students of a private university (UNI) in Taiwan. This work utilized decision trees (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms for constructing EPMs; under-sampling, random oversampling and synthetic minority over sampling technique (SMOTE) methods for solving data imbalance problems; accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and area under ROC curve (AUC) for evaluating constructed EPMs.
Findings
DT outperformed MLP and LR with accuracy (97.59%), precision (98%), recall (97%), F1_score (97%), and ROC-AUC (98%). The top-ranking factors comprised “student loan,” “dad occupations,” “mom educational level,” “department,” “mom occupations,” “admission type,” “school fee waiver” and “main sources of living.”
Practical implications
This work only used enrollment information to identify dropout students and crucial factors associated with dropout probability as soon as students enter universities. The extracted rules could be utilized to enhance student retention.
Originality/value
Although first-year student dropouts have gained non-stop attention from researchers in educational practices and theories worldwide, diverse previous studies utilized while-and/or post-semester factors, and/or questionnaires for predicting. These methods failed to offer universities early warning systems (EWS) and/or assist them in providing in-time assistance to dropouts, who face economic difficulties. This work provided universities with an EWS and extracted rules for early dropout prevention and intervention.
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Sirine Ben Yaala and Jamel Eddine Henchiri
This study aims to predict stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach (current index level relative to historical maximum) during periods of global and local events…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to predict stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach (current index level relative to historical maximum) during periods of global and local events, namely the subprime crisis of 2008, the political and social instability of 2011 and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
Over the period 2004–2020, a log-periodic power law model (LPPL) has been employed which describes the price dynamics preceding the beginning dates of the crisis. In order to adjust the LPPL model, the Global Search algorithm was developed using the “fmincon” function.
Findings
By minimizing the sum of square errors between the observed logarithmic indices and the LPPL predicted values, the authors find that the estimated parameters satisfy all the constraints imposed in the literature. Moreover, the adjustment line of the LPPL models to the logarithms of the indices closely corresponds to the observed trend of the logarithms of the indices, which was overall bullish before the crashes. The most predicted dates correspond to the start dates of the stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach. Therefore, the forecasted stock market crashes are the results of the bursting of speculative bubbles and, consequently, of the price deviation from their fundamental values.
Practical implications
The adoption of the LPPL model might be very beneficial for financial market participants in reducing their financial crash risk exposure and managing their equity portfolio risk.
Originality/value
This study differs from previous research in several ways. First of all, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the authors' paper is among the first to show stock market crises detection and prediction, specifically in African countries, since they generate recessionary economic and social dynamics on a large extent and on multiple regional and global scales. Second, in this manuscript, the authors employ the LPPL model, which can expect the most probable day of the beginning of the crash by analyzing excessive stock price volatility.
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Isaac Akomea-Frimpong, Jacinta Rejoice Ama Delali Dzagli, Kenneth Eluerkeh, Franklina Boakyewaa Bonsu, Sabastina Opoku-Brafi, Samuel Gyimah, Nana Ama Sika Asuming, David Wireko Atibila and Augustine Senanu Kukah
Recent United Nations Climate Change Conferences recognise extreme climate change of heatwaves, floods and droughts as threatening risks to the resilience and success of…
Abstract
Purpose
Recent United Nations Climate Change Conferences recognise extreme climate change of heatwaves, floods and droughts as threatening risks to the resilience and success of public–private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects. Such conferences together with available project reports and empirical studies recommend project managers and practitioners to adopt smart technologies and develop robust measures to tackle climate risk exposure. Comparatively, artificial intelligence (AI) risk management tools are better to mitigate climate risk, but it has been inadequately explored in the PPP sector. Thus, this study aims to explore the tools and roles of AI in climate risk management of PPP infrastructure projects.
Design/methodology/approach
Systematically, this study compiles and analyses 36 peer-reviewed journal articles sourced from Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar and PubMed.
Findings
The results demonstrate deep learning, building information modelling, robotic automations, remote sensors and fuzzy logic as major key AI-based risk models (tools) for PPP infrastructures. The roles of AI in climate risk management of PPPs include risk detection, analysis, controls and prediction.
Research limitations/implications
For researchers, the findings provide relevant guide for further investigations into AI and climate risks within the PPP research domain.
Practical implications
This article highlights the AI tools in mitigating climate crisis in PPP infrastructure management.
Originality/value
This article provides strong arguments for the utilisation of AI in understanding and managing numerous challenges related to climate change in PPP infrastructure projects.
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Christian Nnaemeka Egwim, Hafiz Alaka, Youlu Pan, Habeeb Balogun, Saheed Ajayi, Abdul Hye and Oluwapelumi Oluwaseun Egunjobi
The study aims to develop a multilayer high-effective ensemble of ensembles predictive model (stacking ensemble) using several hyperparameter optimized ensemble machine learning…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to develop a multilayer high-effective ensemble of ensembles predictive model (stacking ensemble) using several hyperparameter optimized ensemble machine learning (ML) methods (bagging and boosting ensembles) trained with high-volume data points retrieved from Internet of Things (IoT) emission sensors, time-corresponding meteorology and traffic data.
Design/methodology/approach
For a start, the study experimented big data hypothesis theory by developing sample ensemble predictive models on different data sample sizes and compared their results. Second, it developed a standalone model and several bagging and boosting ensemble models and compared their results. Finally, it used the best performing bagging and boosting predictive models as input estimators to develop a novel multilayer high-effective stacking ensemble predictive model.
Findings
Results proved data size to be one of the main determinants to ensemble ML predictive power. Second, it proved that, as compared to using a single algorithm, the cumulative result from ensemble ML algorithms is usually always better in terms of predicted accuracy. Finally, it proved stacking ensemble to be a better model for predicting PM2.5 concentration level than bagging and boosting ensemble models.
Research limitations/implications
A limitation of this study is the trade-off between performance of this novel model and the computational time required to train it. Whether this gap can be closed remains an open research question. As a result, future research should attempt to close this gap. Also, future studies can integrate this novel model to a personal air quality messaging system to inform public of pollution levels and improve public access to air quality forecast.
Practical implications
The outcome of this study will aid the public to proactively identify highly polluted areas thus potentially reducing pollution-associated/ triggered COVID-19 (and other lung diseases) deaths/ complications/ transmission by encouraging avoidance behavior and support informed decision to lock down by government bodies when integrated into an air pollution monitoring system
Originality/value
This study fills a gap in literature by providing a justification for selecting appropriate ensemble ML algorithms for PM2.5 concentration level predictive modeling. Second, it contributes to the big data hypothesis theory, which suggests that data size is one of the most important factors of ML predictive capability. Third, it supports the premise that when using ensemble ML algorithms, the cumulative output is usually always better in terms of predicted accuracy than using a single algorithm. Finally developing a novel multilayer high-performant hyperparameter optimized ensemble of ensembles predictive model that can accurately predict PM2.5 concentration levels with improved model interpretability and enhanced generalizability, as well as the provision of a novel databank of historic pollution data from IoT emission sensors that can be purchased for research, consultancy and policymaking.
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Muhammad Iqbal, Lukmanul Hakim and Muhammad Abdul Aziz
This study aims to analyze the factors that influenced the stability of Islamic banks in Asia.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze the factors that influenced the stability of Islamic banks in Asia.
Design/methodology/approach
The panel data consisted of 16 Asian countries operating Islamic banks from 2010 to 2019. The data were analyzed through dynamic panel regression using Arellano–Bond generalized method of moments (GMM).
Findings
This study provides novel insights into the factors influencing the stability of Islamic banks in Asia. The findings suggest that past financial stability, liquidity risk, loan risk, inflation, gross domestic product, government effectiveness, rule of law and control of corruption are all significant contributors to Islamic bank stability. Notably, political stability, voice and accountability and regulatory quality did not show a significant association.
Research limitations/implications
The current study’s focus was solely on Islamic bank stability in Asian countries, which leaves room for further exploration. Future research could benefit from expanding the scope to encompass all nations with active Islamic banking institutions. In addition, incorporating a broader range of macroeconomic variables, such as exchange rates, interest rates, profit-sharing equivalents and investment rates, could provide deeper insights into the factors influencing Islamic bank stability across diverse contexts.
Practical implications
This study has significant practical implications for policymakers, bank managers and regulatory authorities seeking to enhance the stability of Islamic banks in Asia. By implementing robust risk management frameworks, adopting prudent regulatory policies, and actively fostering economic growth, policymakers can create an environment conducive to the sustained development and prosperity of Islamic banking institutions. Notably, promoting good governance practices and instituting effective crisis prevention measures can further bolster the resilience of the Islamic banking sector, enabling it to play a more dynamic role in contributing to the overall development and welfare of Asian societies.
Social implications
The findings of this study carry significant social implications, highlighting the need for governments in Asian countries to prioritize public policies that promote good governance and ethical practices within the banking industry. Such policies, coupled with efforts to attract foreign investments and foster a stable and transparent banking sector, have the potential to generate far-reaching positive effects on society. Through economic growth stimulated by a robust Islamic banking sector, Asian countries can create new employment opportunities, improve living standards and ultimately enhance the overall well-being of their citizens.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the ongoing discourse on Islamic banking stability by offering novel insights and expanding the empirical knowledge base in this field. The dual application of robust regression methodologies – namely, GMM dynamic panel data models – presents a unique analytical framework for investigating the complex interplay between diverse variables and Islamic bank stability. This methodological choice fosters deeper understanding of the dynamic relationships at play, advancing our understanding of how specific factors influence the sector's resilience and performance. In addition, the study uses rigorous empirical techniques and engages with the extant literature to provide fresh perspectives and nuanced interpretations of the findings, further solidifying its contribution to the field's originality and richness.
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Adamu Abbas Adamu, Syed Hassan Raza and Bahtiar Mohamad
Communication with employees during times of crisis has become a crucial aspect of crisis management for building organizational resilience knowledge. Thus, explaining how…
Abstract
Purpose
Communication with employees during times of crisis has become a crucial aspect of crisis management for building organizational resilience knowledge. Thus, explaining how internal crisis management promotes positive employee behaviour has become imperative. This study aims to investigate the relationship between internal crisis communication, job engagement, Organizational Citizenship Behaviour towards the Environment, Communicative behaviour for sensemaking and sensegiving and organizational resilience.
Design/methodology/approach
An online survey was conducted with 483 full-time employees in Pakistan. The structural equation modelling technique was employed to assess the study's hypotheses.
Findings
The findings of this study demonstrate that internal crisis communication can boost employee job engagement, organizational citizenship behaviour towards environment, sensemaking and sensegiving, which will also have a downstream effect on organizational resilience.
Practical implications
The findings of this study indicated that effective internal communication can aid managers in making well-informed decisions, coordinating response efforts and disseminating vital information to relevant stakeholders. As a result, this study contributes to the literature on internal crisis management by incorporating employee behavioural intention towards the environment. It provides managers and practitioners with knowledge on managing employees during a crisis.
Originality/value
Surprisingly, the conservation of resource theory (COR) does not explain communicative conduct (sensegiving) and environmental (e.g. organizational citizenship behaviour towards environment) components. This research combines the tenets of COR theory that have yet to be researched with the employees' environmental responses element. The mechanisms of cognition and communication were also ignored in earlier studies. This study sheds light on the process through which higher levels of job engagement, organizational citizenship behaviour towards environment and the capacity for comprehension (e.g. sensemaking) and meaning-transmission (e.g. sensegiving) ultimately help organizations navigate the crisis successfully.
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Chong Wu, Xiaofang Chen and Yongjie Jiang
While the Chinese securities market is booming, the phenomenon of listed companies falling into financial distress is also emerging, which affects the operation and development of…
Abstract
Purpose
While the Chinese securities market is booming, the phenomenon of listed companies falling into financial distress is also emerging, which affects the operation and development of enterprises and also jeopardizes the interests of investors. Therefore, it is important to understand how to accurately and reasonably predict the financial distress of enterprises.
Design/methodology/approach
In the present study, ensemble feature selection (EFS) and improved stacking were used for financial distress prediction (FDP). Mutual information, analysis of variance (ANOVA), random forest (RF), genetic algorithms, and recursive feature elimination (RFE) were chosen for EFS to select features. Since there may be missing information when feeding the results of the base learner directly into the meta-learner, the features with high importance were fed into the meta-learner together. A screening layer was added to select the meta-learner with better performance. Finally, Optima hyperparameters were used for parameter tuning by the learners.
Findings
An empirical study was conducted with a sample of A-share listed companies in China. The F1-score of the model constructed using the features screened by EFS reached 84.55%, representing an improvement of 4.37% compared to the original features. To verify the effectiveness of improved stacking, benchmark model comparison experiments were conducted. Compared to the original stacking model, the accuracy of the improved stacking model was improved by 0.44%, and the F1-score was improved by 0.51%. In addition, the improved stacking model had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value (0.905) among all the compared models.
Originality/value
Compared to previous models, the proposed FDP model has better performance, thus bridging the research gap of feature selection. The present study provides new ideas for stacking improvement research and a reference for subsequent research in this field.
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Qianmai Luo, Chengshuang Sun, Ying Li, Zhenqiang Qi and Guozong Zhang
With increasing complexity of construction projects and new construction processes and methods are adopted, more safety hazards are emerging at construction sites, requiring the…
Abstract
Purpose
With increasing complexity of construction projects and new construction processes and methods are adopted, more safety hazards are emerging at construction sites, requiring the application of the modern risk management methods. As an emerging technology, digital twin has already made valuable contributions to safety risk management in many fields. Therefore, exploring the application of digital twin technology in construction safety risk management is of great significance. The purpose of this study is to explore the current research status and application potential of digital twin technology in construction safety risk management.
Design/methodology/approach
This study followed a four-stage literature processing approach as outlined in the systematic literature review procedure guidelines. It then combined the quantitative analysis tools and qualitative analysis methods to organize and summarize the current research status of digital twin technology in the field of construction safety risk management, analyze the application of digital twin technology in construction safety risk management and identify future research trends.
Findings
The research findings indicate that the application of digital twin technology in the field of construction safety risk management is still in its early stages. Based on the results of the literature analysis, this paper summarizes five aspects of digital twin technology's application in construction safety risk management: real-time monitoring and early warning, safety risk prediction and assessment, accident simulation and emergency response, safety risk management decision support and safety training and education. It also proposes future research trends based on the current research challenges.
Originality/value
This study provides valuable references for the extended application of digital twin technology and offers a new perspective and approach for modern construction safety risk management. It contributes to the enhancement of the theoretical framework for construction safety risk management and the improvement of on-site construction safety.
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The question of “why we are in disaster studies” can be essential to reflect on discourses and practices – as students, researchers and professors – in constituting an oppressive…
Abstract
Purpose
The question of “why we are in disaster studies” can be essential to reflect on discourses and practices – as students, researchers and professors – in constituting an oppressive disaster science and finding ways to liberate from it.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper is based on autobiographical research and institutional ethnography to observe and analyze the discourses and practices about career trajectories as students, researchers and professors in disaster studies.
Findings
The paper provides some categories, concepts, theoretical approaches and lived experiences helpful for discussing ways of liberating disaster studies, such as public sociology of disaster.
Originality/value
Few papers have focused on professional trajectories in disaster studies, bringing insights from public sociology and questioning oppressive disaster science.
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