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Few people living in informal settlements in the Global South spontaneously claim that they are “resilient” or “adapting” to disaster risk or climate change. Surely, they often overcome multiple challenges, including natural hazards exacerbated by climate change. Yet their actions are increasingly examined through the framework of resilience, a notion developed in the North, and increasingly adopted in the South. To what extent eliminate’ do these initiatives correspond to the concepts that scholars and authorities place under the resilience framework?

Three longitudinal case studies in Yumbo, Salgar and San Andrés (Colombia) serve to investigate narratives of disaster risks and responses to them. Methods include narrative analysis from policy and project documents, presentations, five workshops, six focus groups and 24 interviews.

The discourse adopted by most international scholars and local authorities differs greatly from that used by citizens to explain risk and masks the politics involved in disaster reduction and the search for social justice. Besides, narratives of social change, aspirations and social status are increasingly masked in disaster risk explanations. Tensions are also concealed, including those regarding the winners and losers of interventions and the responsibilities for disaster risk reduction.

Our findings confirm previous results that have shown that the resilience framework contributes to “depoliticize” the analysis of risk and serves to mask and dilute the responsibility of political and economic elites in disaster risk creation. But they also show that resilience fails to explain the type of socioeconomic change that is required to reduce vulnerabilities in Latin America.

The combined effects of several complex phenomena cause the deterioration of elements in steel hydraulic structures (SHSs) within the US lock system: corrosion, cracking and fatigue, impact and overloads. Predicting the future condition state of these structures by the use of current condition state inspection data can be achieved through the probabilistic chain deterioration model. The purpose of this study is to derive the transition probability matrix using final elements modeling of a miter gate.

If predicted accurately, this information would yield benefits in determining the need for rehabilitation or replacement of SHS. However, because of the complexity and difficulties on obtaining sufficient inspection data, there is a lack of available condition states needed to formulate proper transition probability matrices for each deterioration case.

This study focuses on using a three-dimensional explicit finite element analysis (FEM) of a miter gate that has been fully validated with experimental data to derive the transition probability matrix when the loss of flexural capacity in a corroded member is simulated.

New methodology using computational mechanics to derive the transition probability matrices of navigation steel structures has been presented.

The difficulty of deriving the transition probability matrix to perform a Markovian analysis increases when limited amount of inspection data is available. The used state of practice FEM to derive the transition probability matrix is not just necessary but also essential when the need for proper maintenance is required but limited amount of the condition of the structural system is unknown.