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Prospects for East Asia (ex-China) in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Inflation remains a problem, though there has been a tourism surge. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s approval ratings remain low, with the opposition winning a key…

Sierra Leone opposition boycott may end

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SIERRA LEONE

Opposition concerns are reflected internationally: the US State Department on August 31 imposed visa restrictions on officials implicated in the alleged manipulation of the…

The EU will encounter obstacles in the South Caucasus

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CAUCASUS

This follows years of the region being regarded as of peripheral interest to Brussels. Nonetheless, relations have not always been smooth.

Migrant lack will worsen Eastern Europe’s skills set

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EASTERN EUROPE

The plan includes investment in the skills needed for the transition from heavy industry to a greener, smarter and more electric future. Those skills are in short supply thanks to…

Congressional support will assist Guatemala’s Arevalo

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GUATEMALA

A Constitutional Court ruling barring members of his Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement, Semilla) from holding congressional leadership positions will constrain the party’s room…

Honduran security strategy successes will be limited

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HONDURAS

The measure, announced by President Xiomara Castro in November 2022, partially mirrored controversial security policies implemented in neighbouring El Salvador. While El Salvador…

East Asian trilateralism will survive disputes

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EAST ASIA

Beijing’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, last month cited racial solidarity as one motive. The China-Japan-South Korea ('CJK') trio may well reconvene soon nonetheless, initially at…

Canadian parties will take sides in China inquiry row

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CANADA

Johnston was chosen by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to determine whether a public inquiry should be held on the issue, and has concluded it should not. However, opposition…

US corporate debt distress will rise

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UNITED STATES

US corporate debt default and bankruptcy stress is at its most intense for more than a decade in the face of higher interest rates, elevated inflation and a slowing economy. There…

MAS infighting raises risk of Bolivia election defeat

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BOLIVIA

President Luis Arce’s ratification of Del Castillo in post puts him in direct conflict with former President Evo Morales (2006-19), who seeks to regain the presidency in 2025…