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The purpose of this paper is to explore the corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario planning in strategic decision-making.

This paper is based on a sample of 15 case studies with executives in the South African context to reveal the perceived corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning.

From the cases, it is evident that industry-, organizational- and leadership-related factors enable or inhibit scenario planning. Requirements, benefits and inhibitors are revealed in strategic decision-making.

Further research to determine supportive tools and technologies for enabling scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed.

This paper expands insights into the requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making.

Given the increasing complexity of the business environment, a framework of scenario-thinking is presented and recommend greater emphasis on developing strategic decision-making competence, changed mindsets and organizational agility.

The theoretical value of scenario-planning as a strategic tool is well recognized in literature. The purpose of this study is to explore the corporate reasoning of formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making.

An overview of the relevant literature on scenario-planning as a strategic decision-making tool in the context of complexity and uncertainty is presented, in combination with 15 case studies on executives in the South African context.

The findings are based on a study in the emerging market context. From the case studies reported, it is evident that industry, organizational and leadership-related factors influence the effective use or non-use of scenario-planning.

Empirical findings are reported, contributing to an assessment framework to revisit the usage of formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Further research to determine which supportive tools and technologies should be used for scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed.

The study expands upon previous insights into the formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making based on an emerging market context.

This study contributes to understanding the value of scenario-planning in complex contexts that require strategic adaptability and offers a hands-on toolkit and shortlist of assessment criteria to conceptualize the organizational reasoning and scholarly framing of formal, informal or non-scenario-planning in strategic decision-making.

Learning outcomes are as follows: Students will be able to demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainty faced in a crisis; demonstrate how dynamic capabilities allow an organisation to respond effectively in a time of crisis and deep uncertainty; explore how strong dynamic capabilities are required to maintain continuity of operations by enabling a shift in the current business model; and evaluate methods of mobilising resources to address needs and possible opportunities presented in a crisis.

Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), a South African-based business school and the one of the top ranked business schools in Africa, faced a crisis in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. With the announcement of a national lock down, under strict conditions, and the immediate closure of the GIBS campus, the Academic Programmes had to radically shift their mode of delivery to enable students to continue with their respective programmes. When the situation was further exacerbated by the breaking of the undersea cable, the Executive Director of Academic Programmes, Professor Louise Whittaker faced the difficult decision on what to do next. The case illustrates the need for strong dynamic capabilities to foster organisational agility and to respond effectively in times of deep uncertainty or crises.

The case is positioned at a postgraduate level and would be ideal as a teaching case for business students on a Master of Business Administration programme, a specialised Master in Philosophy programme or selected executive education programmes for general managers or senior executives.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS: 11 Strategy.

The Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), a South African based business school and one of the top ranked business schools in Africa, was yet again facing a crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Having emerged out of an extraordinary year of strict lockdown regulations and having managed a rapid shift to emergency remote teaching. GIBS had managed to maintain its academic programmes, ensuring the completion of the curriculum within the academic year whilst maintaining the exceptionally high standards and quality learning experience it was known for. As 2020 drew to a close, the academic programmes team and the students looked forward to starting the new year in a more “normal” mode of operation. GIBS closed for Christmas holiday with the intent on returning, in early 2021, in some form of face-to-face teaching. However, on the 27th of December 2020, the President of South Africa announced a return to level-3 lockdown as the second wave of infections swept through the country. Strict measures were once again enforced, significantly impacting GIBS’ possible return to campus in January 2021. Reflecting on the lessons learnt over the past year, the Executive Director: Academic Programmes, Professor Louise Whittaker, yet again faced the challenge of deciding how best to proceed given the circumstances. The case illustrates the need for effective change management through the application of Kotter’s 8 steps to transformation, whilst demonstrating the complexity of change management during a crisis. A particular focus on the importance of communication during a change management process in a crisis is illustrated through this case.

The learning outcomes are as follows: students need to understand that in a crisis, change management will be emergent and requires flexibility and adaptability; students will determine what concrete actions may be required during a change management process in a crisis; students will need to discern that theoretical models do not necessarily fit real world contexts, particularly in a crisis situation; and students will identify aspects that might be missing or inadequately formulated in standard models of change management.

The case is positioned at a post-graduate level and would be ideal as a teaching case for business school students on a Master of Business Administration programme, a specialised business masters programme or selected executive education programmes for general managers or senior executives. The case can be taught in a course in the following fields, namely, change management, leadership or strategy.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 11: Strategy.