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The essence of the modern asset‐market approach to the analysis of exchange rate behavior includes the role of the trade balance account. We examine the relationship between exchange rate changes and US trade balance announcements. Statistically significant exchange rate adjustments to these announcements are documented using for the first time the comparison period approach to testing the significance of trade balance announcements on exchange rates. The evidence is consistent with the predictions of the modern asset‐market exchange rate model. There is also evidence that the foreign exchange market is more sensitive to increasing rather than decreasing trade balance deficit announcements. To date, a number of theoretical papers have investigated the possible sources of the exchange rate determination process (see, Dornbusch [1976,1980], Dornbusch and Fisher [1980], Frenkel [1976, 1981], Kouri [1976], and Mussa [1982], among others). There is no consensus on how exchange rates are determined and why they have exhibited increased volatility lately. The interpretations vary widely among the various theories, ranging from the flow‐market approach to the modern asset‐market view. The asset‐market approach of exchange rates is based on the principle that the current value of the exchange rate (i.e. the relative price of two national currencies) is influenced not only by current economic conditions but also by expectations of its future value and, therefore, by the information that underlies these expectations. The asset‐market literature on the determination of exchange rates establishes a direct relationship between changes in the exchange rate and the current account (or trade balance account). For example, Mussa [1982] shows that the equilibrium exchange rate depends on expectations about the exogenous factors that affect the current account in present and future periods. A central implication of the asset‐market view is that “innovations” in the current account induce unexpected changes in the exchange rate. This is because an innovation in the current account, defined as a deviation of the current account balance from its previously expected level, conveys information about changes in economic conditions relevant for determining the equilibrium exchange rate (see Mussa [1982]). For example, if a country experiences an unexpectedly strong trade balance performance, this might be perceived to imply changes in relative economic efficiency, product demand, or international competitiveness that will improve the current account in future periods leading to an appreciation of the foreign value of the domestic currency. In essence, the asset‐market view argues that information about changes in real economic conditions requiring exchange rate adjustments can be inferred from innovations in the trade balance and/or the current account. Dornbusch and Fischer [1980] also argue that while asset markets determine exchange rates, it is the current account through its effect on net asset positions, and subsequently on asset markets, which influences the path of the foreign exchange rate. Thus, it can be argued that unanticipated current account announcements should be associated with exchange rate movements immediately following such announcements. While the relationship between the current account and the exchange rate has been extensively analyzed, the empirical evidence pertaining to the association between exchange rates and the current account has produced mixed results. Hardouvelis [1988] examines the effects of macroeconomic news, including US trade balance announcements, on three interest rates and seven exchange rates over the October 1979 to August 1984 period. He reports that announcements of the trade deficit have no statistically significant effects on interest rates, with the exception of the three‐month T‐bill rates and the exchange rates. The evidence with respect to the short‐term interest rate reactions may be associated with the fact that the “Federal Reserve Bank throughout the 1977–1984 period was unable to establish full credibility among market participants about its fight against inflation” (see Hardouvelis [1988]). Deravi et al [1988] have also investigated the financial market's response to US balance of trade announcements. They find similar results to those reported in Hardouvelis [1988] for the February 1980 to February 1985 period, but they report a significant exchange rate response to trade deficit announcements over the March 1985 to July 1987 period. Irwin [1989], however, uncovered a significant breakdown in the relationship between trade balance announcements and dollar exchange rates during the month of June 1984; that is, larger trade deficits were found to be associated with the dollar's depreciations only in the post‐June 1984 period. Contrary to previous studies, Hogan et al [1991] find larger US trade balance deficits to have a significant effect on exchange rates throughout the 1980s. Because expected trade balance figures are available from the Money Market Service Inc. and since the trade balance figures according to Crystal and Wood [1980] represent 85 percent of the US current account, it apears that the trade balance serves as a good proxy for the current account. Therefore, we are able to test more directly the impact of the US trade balance announcements on the exchange rate. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between exchange rate changes and merchandise balance announcements using a sample of US trade figures spanning the period from August 1986 to April 1989. In the following, we refer to this relationship as the “current account hypothesis”. Unlike previous research, the analysis is based on unanticipated trade balance announcements in order to study the interaction between exchange rates and information contained in the trade balance announced figures as the asset‐market approach to exchange rate determination process predicts. Dornbusch [1980] used the official forecast errors of the Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (i.e. biannual six‐month forecasts for current account and exchange rates). In this study, we focus on the major component of the current account‐the trade balance‐to test the current account hypothesis. The trade balance account is by far the best proxy for the current account. Another differentiating aspect of this study from the previous research is that it relies on systematic trade balance announcements. The use of the Commerce Departments' announcements concerning the US merchandise trade balance has also been motivated by the growing financial and non‐financial press coverage of the monthly trade balance reports. Examples of how the financial press covers the monthly trade balance announcements include: 1. “A wider trade deficit jolts a fragile market, shares off 101 points, dollar falls, and interest rates surge as big gap surprises investors, central bankers”, The Wall Street Journal, April 5,1988. 2. “London stocks rise sharply on US trade news; shares close firmer in Tokyo for the second day”, The Wall Street Journal, May 18,1989. 3. “Tricks of the Trade. The huge current‐account imbalances of the 1980s are disappearing fast. Good news? Maybe. But be warned: trade flows are less and less useful as indicators of economic performance” The Economist, March 30, 1991. 4. “Trade deficit grew in April to $6.97 billion… as exports continued to drop and imports jumped. The April deficit was the biggest monthly imbalance since a $9.49 billion deficit in November 1990. The trade gap in March was $5.58 billion. Economists say sluggish economic activity abroad is making it more difficult for US companies to sell their goods.” The Wall Street Journal, June 19, 1992. The different views registered in the financial press about the importance of the current account and trade balance imbalances in influencing exchange rate changes have further motivated the present study. Contrary to the current account hypothesis, it has been argued that because of the increasing integration of world capital markets, it is easier to finance current account deficits and therefore the trade balance or current account figures might be less useful as far as the determination of exchange rates is concerned. In addition, as a result of the increasing foreign investment activity, trade deficits may no longer represent purely national concepts. For example, a significant portion of a country's exports and imports may be accounted for by foreign firms with corporate operations there. Furthermore, US firms may decide to supply an overseas market either by exporting or by locating production abroad. Locally produced sales by US firms overseas, however, do not count as exports, nor do their local purchases of inputs count as imports. But from the firm's point of view, the local sales of a US subsidiary are viewed as being similar to exports. Therefore, it is argued that US trade balance deficits measured on the basis of residency rather than nationality of ownership, which is currently the norm, may mean less than it once did. Consequently, what emerges from the above is that the correlation between exchange rates and the information contained in the trade balance figures may be weaker than predicted by the asset‐market approach. Whether the current account or trade balance figures do matter as far as the determination of exchange rates is concerned is an empirical question. This article presents a first attempt at analyzing the impact of “innovations” in the US trade balance account on the exchange rate. An event study analysis is performed for the first time using trade balance announcement data from August 1986 to April 1989. The event methodology provides an appropriate direct test for the asset‐market model which predicts that unexpected changes in the exchange rate should be related to innovations in the current account (trade balance). The article is arranged as follows. Section II describes the data and methodology used. Section III presents empirical evidence on the relationship between exchange rates and innovations in the trade balance account. The article concludes with Section IV.

The study aims at examining whether or not poor macro-economic conditions can lead auditors to change their risk management policies when performing an audit.

The present study is based on a questionnaire distributed to auditors working at the branches of the big four audit firms in Egypt over two rounds under different economic conditions. The responses in each of the two rounds were analyzed to identify any similarities or differences in auditors' behavior when performing analytical procedures under different economic conditions.

Auditors appear to alter their risk management strategies during challenging economic times. The present study results suggest that auditors increase their dependence on non-financial data and information as supporting evidence when assessing audit risk during times of economic difficulties. The findings also show that when the macro-economic trends are declining, audit firms tend to assign the performance of analytical procedures to more experienced audit personnel (i.e. senior auditors, audit managers and partners) with less of this work being done by the audit staff.

The present study is based on a sample of 40 respondents. It is recommended for future research to use a larger sample size as results may differ for a greater sample. The present research did not consider the effect of auditors' specialization in a certain industry on the audit judgment during an audit engagement. Future research would examine the impact of auditors' industry specialization on audit judgments during periods of unfavorable economic conditions. The present study is based on a survey that aims at capturing auditors' perception. Further research would use other research techniques (e.g. laboratory experiment) to examine the effect of the general economic conditions on auditors' assessment of audit risk.

Auditors need to give sufficient attention to the analyses of non-financial information of their audit clients during the performance of the analytical procedures under unstable economic conditions rather than depending solely on financial information. Moreover, audit firms could use a much richer labor mix for audit teams through increasing their reliance on experienced senior auditors, audit managers and partners during periods of deteriorating macro-economic conditions to mitigate risk and improve audit judgment.

This study adds to the scarce literature in developing countries investigating the influence of external economic factors on the audit process. The present research provides information to practitioners and educators about risk management policies that could be considered in case of performing analytical procedures during an audit conducted under poor economic conditions.

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the economic environment affects the merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the restaurant industry.

The M&A transactions in the restaurant industry between 1981 and 2013 (n = 1,415) were examined. Data were collected from the Securities Data Corporation (SDC) database. Using an autoregressive distributed lag approach, this study developed three error correction models to explore the short- and long-term relationships between restaurant M&A activities and four macro-economic factors.

This study found that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the M&A activities and the four economic factors and that economic outlook had a significantly positive impact in the long term, while the effect of cost of debt was significantly negative in both the short and long terms. The findings suggest that restaurant firms are more likely to adopt M&A strategy when they are optimistic about the future economy and can take on debt at a low cost.

The findings of this study are expected to help practitioners make informative M&A decisions in the restaurant industry taking into consideration the economic environment. They will also help investors effectively manage their portfolios by predicting and ascertaining the proper time to invest in the restaurant industry based on the changes of economic environment.

No known study has been identified that examined the relationship between macro-economic factors and M&A activities in the restaurant industry. The findings of the study are expected to fill the gap in the literature by demonstrating the economic environment and the M&A activities in the restaurant industry are in a long-term equilibrium achieved by self-correction of their short-term disequilibrium.

An attempt is made to assess changes that have occurred in the New Zealand industrial relations system over the last four years. The relationship between traditional modes of operational practice based on government intervention through the medium of statute law, and the perceptions of change held by employers and trade unions, in response to current legislative restructuring is examined. The analysis of change is located within the larger aims of the current administration, to increase economic efficiencies through the medium of de‐regulation of a range of traditional interventionalist institutions. In this context, current initiatives have to be examined against a range of governmental policies that are still in the process of evolution.

A number of factors ranging from economic conditions to managerial self‐interest have contributed to today's unprecedented merger boom. But the tide may be turning as the public policy debate over mergers heats up. Most scenarios show a long‐range drop in merger activity. However, the need for an informed, rational national policy on mergers remains.

All enterprises, whether multimillion‐dollar corporations or small mom and pop businesses, have their ups and downs over the course of time. In the event of a single business failure, the effect on the local economy would likely be minimal. In the unfortunate event of multiple business failures or a recession, however, the negative effects on the local economy could be severe. To forecast and predict business fluctuations such as recessions, economists employ economic or cyclical indicators. These are trends based upon statistical data collected regularly on various aspects of the economy (e.g., employment, income, prices, industrial production, and manufacturing inventory).

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether individual experiences at workforce entry affect later job satisfaction.

This study utilized the British Household Panel Survey for the years between 1991 and 2008. Ordered probit estimation is used for the analysis. Also fixed effect and pooled ordinary least squares methods are employed to make robustness check.

The results of the analyses show that people who enter the workforce when the unemployment rate is high have less job satisfaction even in later ages compared to the ones who enter the workforce when the unemployment rate is lower. Even controlling for important factors on job satisfaction, such as industry and occupation differences, age, gender and income, the effect of workforce entry conditions on job satisfaction continues to survive. The results indicate that high unemployment has larger and longer lasting negative welfare effects than commonly predicted.

An increment in workforce entry unemployment rate causes lower job satisfaction even years later of these early workforce experiences. The results indicate that high unemployment has larger and longer lasting negative welfare effects than commonly predicted.

The study is among the few that investigates macroeconomic experiences on job satisfaction and the first one providing evidence on the negative effect of entering the workforce in worse economic conditions on later job satisfaction.

Given the economic downturn, the purpose of this study was to determine if a relationship exists between economic perceptions and consumers' motivation to consume for status and if this relationship was moderated by education level.

A stratified random sample of adult consumers in the southeastern USA were surveyed by telephone. The hypotheses were tested utilizing structural equation modeling.

The results indicated that those consumers with a lower level of perceived economic welfare (i.e. see the economy and their family's financial situation as worse this year versus last year) were less motivated to consume for status. Furthermore, this relationship was positively moderated by education. No relationship was found between consumer confidence (i.e. consumers' perceptions of the economy in the future year) and status consumption. The results suggest that those consumers who perceive themselves to be financially better off this year versus last, particularly those more educated, are more motivated to consume for status.

The main research limitation was that the sample skewed to be older, female and Caucasian, though the sample did match Census figures for the critical variable of education. Additionally, the phone response rate was 9 percent, but it is important to recognize that this was for a non-student sample.

The results suggest that marketers, targeting luxury consumers in the current stagnant economy, aim for more educated consumers who see their economic welfare as improving. This implication stems from the research findings revealing that consumers who feel they are recovering economically from the recent economic downturn, especially those with higher education levels, may more likely be status consumers.

With the democratization of luxury there is renewed interest in luxury consumption research. While research suggests there is a relationship between economic conditions and status consumption, few studies have measured consumer economic perceptions in relation to status consumption and none have examined how education may play a moderating role in explaining why people buy luxuries in a tough economic climate.

Current economic conditions have identified a complication if not conflict in the application of valuation analysis assumptions with the free fall in asset prices observed since 2007. Discrepancies in debt obligations (from prior periods) with underlying collateral value have been opined to be an unforeseen anomaly. This investigation aims to observe an alternative perspective using data from 1900 to the present.

This 110‐year period of observation shows that return (value) volatility is the characteristic norm of the market system. Showing volatility as a fundamental characteristic of economic and property performance supports conjecture by definition, observation and rationality that valuation analysis had to be successfully employed in prior down cycles and across divergent economic regimes. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify the application of specific value theory, premises and concepts with appropriate valuation techniques in given economic regimes. The variables derived from the literature and practices observed and designated as operating across time emphasizing recorded recessions are then tested for statistically significant associations using χ² tests.

The findings show that traditional value techniques are successfully applied in stabilized and even accelerated growth periods, but weaken and even break down during down markets. Alternative approaches and techniques are emphasized and developed during these periods that address specific problems but are befitting more general issues. The alternative perspectives are then observed to operate, generating much debate for extended periods. They are then incorporated as orthodox or disappear as issues. This study identifies a statistical link between the economic and valuation concerns of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the current Great Recession of 2007‐2009. The more relevant finding, however, is that the period following the depression of the 1930s, which shows a period characterized as using innovation and alternative valuation techniques, was continued into a period that ran from the 1950s into the mid‐1990s. This was a period of stabilization, at least into the early 1980s. The deregulation of the 1980s generated a period of fewer cycles but major magnitude shifts in the less frequent measures of volatility. Unfortunately, the sophistication in debate concerning valuation procedure and valuation premises, as statistically measured, declined from the 1990s into the present period. The present economy reflects statistical measures similar to those observed from 1900‐1930.

Given the 110 years considered in the study, the findings should not be considered original with regard to assisting the general welfare or professional decision making. However, given that the market shifted from being a useful institution to assist in the allocation and distribution of property to being a religious caveat that could only result in perfect solutions to solve all social needs, wants and ills, the findings emphasizing valuation techniques based on rational value premises that can operate to assist inference of future events subject to divergent and cyclical operations might be calmed to offer very useful assistance with procedure based on fundamentals and expression of behaviour that has long been vilified. The uses of the patterns identified in this study need to be incorporated into causal analysis.

Precarity is a condition that exists when there is little predictability or security with respect to people’s material well-being or psychological welfare. It is a condition that often increases during times of economic uncertainty. But there can be a paradox associated with precarity: the sense of doom can become worse even as objective conditions improve.

Using data from the 2006–2012 American National Election Surveys and other sources, this chapter examines precarity and economic insecurity in the United States before and during the Obama era. It provides an overview of patterns that undergird the sense of insecurity by presenting trends in economic well-being before, during, and after the Great Recession.

The results show that supporters of President Obama were more optimistic about the future. Those who voted for Bush, despite precarity is a racialized, politicized, and partisan condition. It is not simply based on objective conditions. Precarity has far-reaching social effects.

Current perceptions of insecurity are complex and cannot be traced to a single source such as precarity at work. The problem of economic insecurity provides some formidable challenges to policymakers concerned with reducing the waste of human capabilities. Ultimately, the only true solution for precarity is sustained, vigorous economic growth with fairness for all, but how to get there and to get people to believe that such growth is real and sustainable remain a challenge.