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The main aims of this paper are: first, to investigate how decisions are currently made within the Egyptian public sector environment; and, second, to determine whether the decision making can be significantly improved through the use of credit scoring models. A subsidiary aim is to analyze the impact of different proportions of sub‐samples of accepted credit applicants on both efficient decision making and the optimal choice of credit scoring techniques.

Following an investigative phase to identify relevant variables in the sector, the research proceeds to an evaluative phase, in which an analysis is undertaken of real data sets (comprising 1,262 applicants), provided by the commercial public sector banks in Egypt. Two types of neural nets are used, and correspondingly two types of conventional techniques are applied. The use of two evaluative measures/criteria: average correct classification (ACC) rate and estimated misclassification cost (EMC) under different misclassification cost (MC) ratios are investigated.

The currently used approach is based on personal judgement. Statistical scoring techniques are shown to provide more efficient classification results than the currently used judgemental techniques. Furthermore, neural net models give better ACC rates, but the optimal choice of techniques depends on the MC ratio. The probabilistic neural net (PNN) is preferred for a lower cost ratio, whilst the multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) is the preferred choice for a higher ratio. Thus, there is a role for MDA as well as neural nets. There is evidence of statistically significant differences between advanced scoring models and conventional models.

Future research could investigate the use of further evaluative measures, such as the area under the ROC curve and GINI coefficient techniques and more statistical techniques, such as genetic and fuzzy programming. The plan is to enlarge the data set.

There is a huge financial benefit from applying these scoring models to Egyptian public sector banks, for at present only judgemental techniques are being applied in credit evaluation processes. Hence, these techniques can be introduced to support the bank credit decision makers.

Thie paper reveals a set of key variables culturally relevant to the Egyptian environment, and provides an evaluation of personal loans in the Egyptian public sector banking environment, in which (to the best of the author's knowledge) no other authors have studied the use of sophisticated statistical credit scoring techniques.

This paper aims to distinguish whether the decision-making process of the Islamic financial houses in the UK can be improved through the use of credit scoring modeling techniques as opposed to the currently used judgmental approaches. Subsidiary aims are to identify how scoring models can reclassify accepted applicants who later are considered as having bad credit and how many of the rejected applicants are later considered as having good credit, and highlight significant variables that are crucial in terms of accepting and rejecting applicants, which can further aid the decision-making process.

A real data set of 487 applicants is used consisting of 336 accepted credit applications and 151 rejected credit applications made to an Islamic finance house in the UK. To build the proposed scoring models, the data set is divided into training and hold-out subsets. The training subset is used to build the scoring models, and the hold-out subset is used to test the predictive capabilities of the scoring models. Seventy per cent of the overall applicants will be used for the training subset, and 30 per cent will be used for the testing subset. Three statistical modeling techniques, namely, discriminant analysis, logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MP) neural network, are used to build the proposed scoring models.

The findings reveal that the LR model has the highest correct classification (CC) rate in the training subset, whereas MP outperforms other techniques and has the highest CC rate in the hold-out subset. MP also outperforms other techniques in terms of predicting the rejected credit applications and has the lowest misclassification cost above other techniques. In addition, results from MP models show that monthly expenses, age and marital status are identified as the key factors affecting the decision-making process.

This contribution is the first to apply credit scoring modeling techniques in Islamic finance. Also in building a scoring model, the authors' application applies a different approach by using accepted and rejected credit applications instead of good and bad credit histories. This identifies opportunity costs of misclassifying credit applications as rejected.

The purpose of this study is to propose an objective and efficient method for assessing credit risk by introducing and investigating to a greater extent the applicability of credit scoring models in the Jordanian banks and to what range they can be used to achieve their strategic and business objectives.

The research methodology comprises two phases. The first phase is the model development. Three modeling techniques are used to build the scoring models, namely, logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (NN) and support vector machine (SVM), and the best performing model is selected for next stage. The second phase is two-fold: linking the credit expert knowledge in a way that can enhance the outcomes of the scoring model and a profitability test to explore if the selected model is efficient in meeting banks’ strategic and business objectives.

The findings showed that LR model outperformed both ANN and SVM across various performance indicators. The LR model also fits best with achieving the bank’s strategic and business objectives.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first that applied several modeling and classification techniques for Jordanian banks and calibrated the best model in terms of its strategic and business objectives. Furthermore, credit experts’ knowledge was engaged with the scoring model to determine its efficiency and reliability against the sole use of an automated scoring model in the hope to encourage the application of credit scoring models as an advisory tool for credit decisions.

This paper aims to survey the credit scoring literature in the past 41 years (1976-2017) and presents a research agenda that addresses the challenges and opportunities Big Data bring to credit scoring.

Content analysis methodology is used to analyze 258 peer-reviewed academic papers from 147 journals from two comprehensive academic research databases to identify their research themes and detect trends and changes in the credit scoring literature according to content characteristics.

The authors find that credit scoring is going through a quantitative transformation, where data-centric underwriting approaches, usage of non-traditional data sources in credit scoring and their regulatory aspects are the up-coming avenues for further research.

The paper’s findings highlight the perils and benefits of using Big Data in credit scoring algorithms for corporates, governments and non-profit actors who develop and use new technologies in credit scoring.

This paper presents greater insight on how Big Data challenges traditional credit scoring models and addresses the need to develop new credit models that identify new and secure data sources and convert them to useful insights that are in compliance with regulations.

The last twenty years has seen a revolution in consumer credit, with more and more people borrowing on an increasing scale. The explosion in demand for consumer credit could probably not have been met successfully without the development of better and more efficient techniques for handling a key decision. This decision — whether or not to lend money to a prospective borrower — underpins all credit operations. The well‐being of a credit institution, and ultimately its survival, depends on the ability to make this fundamental lending decision correctly.

A good decision support system for credit scoring enables telecom operators to measure the subscribers' creditworthiness in a fine-grained manner. This paper aims to propose a robust credit scoring system by leveraging latent information embedded in the telecom subscriber relation network based on multi-source data sources, including telecom inner data, online app usage, and offline consumption footprint.

Rooting from network science, the relation network model and singular value decomposition are integrated to infer different subscriber subgroups. Employing the results of network inference, the paper proposed a network-aware credit scoring system to predict the continuous credit scores by implementing several state-of-art techniques, i.e. multivariate linear regression, random forest regression, support vector regression, multilayer perceptron, and a deep learning algorithm. The authors use a data set consisting of 926 users of a Chinese major telecom operator within one month of 2018 to verify the proposed approach.

The distribution of telecom subscriber relation network follows a power-law function instead of the Gaussian function previously thought. This network-aware inference divides the subscriber population into a connected subgroup and a discrete subgroup. Besides, the findings demonstrate that the network-aware decision support system achieves better and more accurate prediction performance. In particular, the results show that our approach considering stochastic equivalence reveals that the forecasting error of the connected-subgroup model is significantly reduced by 7.89–25.64% as compared to the benchmark. Deep learning performs the best which might indicate that a non-linear relationship exists between telecom subscribers' credit scores and their multi-channel behaviours.

This paper contributes to the existing literature on business intelligence analytics and continuous credit scoring by incorporating latent information of the relation network and external information from multi-source data (e.g. online app usage and offline consumption footprint). Also, the authors have proposed a power-law distribution-based network-aware decision support system to reinforce the prediction performance of individual telecom subscribers' credit scoring for the telecom marketing domain.

This paper aims to investigate the efficiency and effectiveness of alternative credit‐scoring models for consumer loans in the banking sector. In particular, the focus is upon the financial risks associated with both the efficiency of alternative models in terms of correct classification rates, and their effectiveness in terms of misclassification costs (MCs).

A data set of 630 loan applicants was provided by an Egyptian private bank. A two‐thirds training sample was selected for building the proposed models, leaving a one‐third testing sample to evaluate the predictive ability of the models. In this paper, an investigation is conducted into both neural nets (NNs), such as probabilistic and multi‐layer feed‐forward neural nets, and conventional techniques, such as the weight of evidence measure, discriminant analysis and logistic regression.

The results revealed that a best net search, which selected a multi‐layer feed‐forward net with five nodes, generated both the most efficient classification rate and the most effective MC. In general, NNs gave better average correct classification rates and lower MCs than traditional techniques.

By reducing the financial risks associated with loan defaults, banks can achieve a more effective management of such a crucial component of their operations, namely, the provision of consumer loans.

The use of NNs and conventional techniques in evaluating consumer loans within the Egyptian private banking sector utilizes rigorous techniques in an environment which merits investigation.

Previous researches on credit scoring mainly focussed on static modeling on panel sample data set in a certain period of time, and did not pay enough attention on dynamic incremental modeling. The purpose of this paper is to address the integration of branch and bound algorithm with incremental support vector machine (SVM) ensemble to make dynamic modeling of credit scoring.

This new model hybridizes support vectors of old data with incremental financial data of corporate in the process of dynamic ensemble modeling based on bagged SVM. In the incremental stage, multiple base SVM models are dynamically adjusted according to bagged new updated information for credit scoring. These updated base models are further combined to generate a dynamic credit scoring. In the empirical experiment, the new method was compared with the traditional model of non-incremental SVM ensemble for credit scoring.

The results show that the new model is able to continuously and dynamically adjust credit scoring according to corporate incremental information, which helps produce better evaluation ability than the traditional model.

This research pioneered on dynamic modeling for credit scoring with incremental SVM ensemble. As time pasts, new incremental samples will be combined with support vectors of old samples to construct SVM ensemble credit scoring model. The incremental model will continuously adjust itself to keep good evaluation performance.

Lenders in online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms are always non-experts and face severe information asymmetry. This paper aims to achieve the goals of gaining high returns with risk limitations or lowering risks with expected returns for P2P lenders.

This paper used data from a leading online P2P lending platform in America. First, the authors constructed a logistic regression-based credit scoring model and a linear regression-based profit scoring model to predict the default probabilities and profitability of loans. Second, based on the predictions of loan risk and loan return, the authors constructed linear programming model to form the optimal loan portfolio for lenders.

The research results show that compared to a logistic regression-based credit scoring method, the proposed new framework could make more returns for lenders with risks unchanged. Furthermore, compared to a linear regression-based profit scoring method, the proposed new framework could lower risks for lenders without lowering returns. In addition, comparisons with advanced machine learning techniques further validate its superiority.

Unlike previous studies that focus solely on predicting the default probability or profitability of loans, this study considers loan allocation in online P2P lending as an optimization research problem using a new framework based upon modern portfolio theory (MPT). This study may contribute theoretically to the extension of MPT in the specific context of online P2P lending and benefit lenders and platforms to develop more efficient investment tools.

Credit scoring datasets are generally unbalanced. The number of repaid loans is higher than that of defaulted ones. Therefore, the classification of these data is biased toward the majority class, which practically means that it tends to attribute a mistaken “good borrower” status even to “very risky borrowers”. In addition to the use of statistics and machine learning classifiers, this paper aims to explore the relevance and performance of sampling models combined with statistical prediction and artificial intelligence techniques to predict and quantify the default probability based on real-world credit data.

A real database from a Tunisian commercial bank was used and unbalanced data issues were addressed by the random over-sampling (ROS) and synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE). Performance was evaluated in terms of the confusion matrix and the receiver operating characteristic curve.

The results indicated that the combination of intelligent and statistical techniques and re-sampling approaches are promising for the default rate management and provide accurate credit risk estimates.

This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of ROS and SMOTE in combination with logistic regression, artificial neural networks and support vector machines. The authors address the role of sampling strategies in the Tunisian credit market and its impact on credit risk. These sampling strategies may help financial institutions to reduce the erroneous classification costs in comparison with the unbalanced original data and may serve as a means for improving the bank’s performance and competitiveness.