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Water woes will have multiple impacts in Peru

Location:

PERU

As well as exposure to the El Nino phenomenon, Peru is one of the Latin American countries most susceptible to climate change. Erratic rainfall patterns threaten agriculture…

Russia will spur East European modernised air defence

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EASTERN EUROPE

The contract is part of a continuing and massive effort to modernise and enhance air defence capability across Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) in the face of Russia’s aggression in…

Crime will aggravate South Africa’s growth crisis

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SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa’s crime rates have long been among the world’s highest. Much of this constitutes interpersonal violence, where the victim and perpetrator know each other. However…

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Karabakh is settled

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ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The region’s Armenian majority population has fled; displaced Azerbaijanis have returned to Karabakh and formerly occupied surrounding districts. Russia refused to support its…

China’s defence spending will remain stable

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CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…

Prospects for Middle East conflict in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Hamas and its allies hope to press Israel to turn back before then, but that is highly unlikely unless Washington changes tack or Israel suffers an internal political crisis. A…

Ethiopia’s Amhara conflict may be protracted

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ETHIOPIA

Following an extension of the state of emergency in February, new army offensives, including around the regional capital, Bahir Dar, have intensified the conflict. Reports of…

West Africa faces a future of recurring intense heat

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WEST AFRICA

The researchers found that the heatwave would likely not have occurred if global temperatures remained at pre-industrial levels. Several factors worsened the heatwave’s impact and…

Gulf economies are on a stable track despite risks

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GULF STATES

The IMF has revised downwards its forecast for Saudi GDP growth in 2024 to 2.7% but raised its 2025 forecast to 5.5%. This reflects a positive medium-term outlook for the Gulf…

Ireland’s position towards Israel could harden further

Location:

IRELAND

While stopping short of expelling the Israeli ambassador, Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has criticised Israel’s offensive in Gaza as being disproportionate and openly declared his…